NHL analysis

Major Additions: Manny Fernandez, Shawn Thornton, Peter Schaefer, Carl Soderberg

Major Subtractions: Joey MacDonald, Nathan Dempsey, Petr Tenkrat, Jason York, Sean Donovan, Hannu Toivonen

Analysis

Oh the sorry Bruins. Still reeling from the awful trade that sent superstar Joe Thornton away for spare parts, Boston has a new coach, a new goalie and hopes to at least get itself out of the basement of the North East division - but the road will be a long one.

First, the good news - there are not many teams with a 1-2 punch at centre as talented as Marc Savard and Patrice Bergeron. If Phil Kessel plays pivot on the third line, make that one of the best (and youngest!) 1-2-3 punches. He could also be played on the wing with one of the previous two players, adding substantial speed in exchange for a little depth.

More good news: Manny Fernandez is a proven starter who will play a substantial role in bringing down the Bruins’ woeful 3.48 goals-against per game from a year ago (29th in the league).

Now for the sobering bad news: Fernandez is used to playing in a substantial defensive system and will have a rude welcome playing without that bulwark in front of him. Boston’s blueline remains big but slow and the fast, skilled forwards - so plentiful in the Northeast division - can skate circles around them all night long.

Now for the really bad news: Boston finished last in this division last year and not much looks ready to change. Montreal treaded water but most of their core is fairly young and should be a little better this season. Toronto added a goaltender. Buffalo lost ground but remain far ahead of the Bruins in every department. And the Senators lost virtually nothing from a year ago and look poised to dominate the division and maybe the conference. With 8 games against each of those opponents, the Bruins face a tough schedule.

With new head coach Claude Julien (who deserved a better deal than he received from the Devils last season) and several important pieces either added or maturing (Fernandez and Bergeron/Kessel, respectively), the Bruins should be a much better team than a year ago. But they are not likely to move much in the standings or in their point total, because every improvement they have made has been at least matched by nearly every team around and above them in the conference. Fernandez is no Thomas Vokoun. Schaefer is no Scott Gomez or Chris Drury. And the list goes on.

If Montreal or Toronto falls apart, the Bruins could move up the list. But on their own? Don’t count on it.

Major Additions: Aaran Asham, Ian Moran, Noah Clarke, Vitaly Vishnevski, Kevin Weekes, Karel Rachunek, Danius Zubrus

Major Subtractions: Jim Fahey, Dan LaCouture, Scott Clemmesen, Brad Lukowich, Brian Rafalski, Scott Gomez

Analysis

Last summer the Devils spent most of their time scrambling to deal with their salary cap troubles, due mostly to the salaries of Alexander Mogilny and Vladmir Malakhov counting against the cap while not playing for the team. Those salaries are now gone and the Devils came into the summer with their two cornerstones - Martin Brodeur and Patrik Elias - already signed long term. Despite all of that, the Devils were unable (or unwilling?) to resign UFA Scott Gomez or Brian Rafalski.

So now what do we expect? Certainly not a repeat as division championship - the Penguins were only 2 points back last year and got better where the Devils got worse. Certainly not missing the playoffs - so long as Brodeur stays healthy he can be expected to almost single-handedly drag his team into the playoffs if that’s what it takes.

The argument can be made that New Jersey quite rightly was unwilling to overpay to keep Gomez around, however, it’s hard to make that argument about Rafalski; furthermore, the addition of Zubrus, while more affordable and fair than the grossly inflated $7+ million per year contract Gomez landed, does not adequately replace Gomez’s production. For that, the Devils will lean on newly re-signed Zach Parise and hope he can handle the weight.

The Atlantic division is entirely up for grabs this year. The Penguins are the early favourites for many but they are young and it wouldn’t be a stretch to see them regress this season. The Flyers are hugely improved but big changes often necessitate an adjustment period before they pay dividends. Ditto for the Rangers. I’d have to pick the Rangers to lead the pack, followed by the Penguins, which means the Devils will be in a dogfight for the playoffs rather than for home-ice advantage (best that 3rd place in a division can hope for is 5th seed).

Major Additions: Mike Weaver, Ty Conklin, Jeff Taffe, Darryl Sydor, Danny Sabourin, Petr Sykora

Major Subtractions: Jocelyn Thibault, Michel Ouellet

Analysis

Well, I’m no Ian Mendes, so I’m not going to argue that the Penguins will miss the playoffs this season, though I can see some cause for concern.

First off, the likes of Petr Sykora, Mark Recchi and Gary Roberts aren’t getting any younger. How much longer can they continue to play at a high level? For another, as Mendes points out, it’s not unheard of for young teams to go through a sophomore slump of sorts after a surprisingly successful season. Finally, the Atlantic Division is looking like one of the toughest in the league this summer, with the Flyers and Rangers making some huge free agent acquisitions. The Devils and Islanders both took steps backwards but both boast excellent goaltending and coaching.

The flip side, obviously, is that the Pens boast the best player in the league surrounded by a number of excellent young forwards and defencemen. With both Crosby and Whitney signed long-term, the Penguins can focus on getting Evgeni Malkin Marc-Andre Fleury and Jordan Staal resigned. Fleury is in the last year of his entry-level deal, while Staal and Malkin each have two years left - and all three would make very tempting targets for offer sheets should they reach free agency.

Are the Penguins ready to make the next step? They looked lost in the playoffs a year ago, unable to find that next gear so necessary to be make the jump from a playoff team to a true Cup contender. No doubt they will learn from the experience but the very team that embarrassed them so thoroughly took far more than a single year to become a hardened playoff team.

As with the playoffs last year, the Penguins are not a team I would choose to face but nor are they a team I would be particularly worried by. Until they get more playoff experience under their belt - throughout their entire lineup, not merely from a few veterans - they look like a contender for the President’s Trophy but not the Stanley Cup.

Major Additions: Scott Gomez, Chris Drury

Major Subtractions: Kevin Weekes, Karel Rachunek, Brad Isbister, Michael Nylander, Jed Ortmyer, Sandis Ozolinsh

Analysis

The Rangers were a busy team during the off-season, snagging two of the most highly sought after centers on opening day and then spending most of the remainder of their summer locking up returning pieces. Marcel Hossa, Sean Avery and most importantly Henrik Lundqvist all earned raises though all signed very short-term contracts.

Make no mistake about it - the Rangers goal is nothing short of a Stanley Cup this year. They have but two years left on Jaromir Jagr’s contract and there is no guarantee he will play in the NHL when that expires. We also know that Brendan Shanahan’s days in the NHL are also nearing their end. And here’s a fun fact: the top four defencemen on this team are all heading to unrestricted free agency at the end of this season. Of defencemen expected to play for the Big Apple this year, only Thomas Pock and Marc Staal are signed past next summer.

With all of that in mind, what on earth was Glen Sather thinking giving such lengthy contracts to Gomez and Drury? Are they really the replacements he wants when Shanahan and Jagr decide to retire?

Gomez’s best season came in 2005-06 when he managed 84 points in 82 games - very impressive and certainly first line material, if not superstar numbers. But beyond 05-06 he’s managed to hit 70 points only twice in his NHL career, with the first time coming all the way back in 1999-2000. He’s coming off a very pedestrian season in which he managed only 13 goals and 60 points. Now that’s not bad, and it is worth noting that he’s still a very young player. But how on earth did a 60 point season translate into 7 year, $7.3 million per season contract?

Drury is a more controversial addition, but one I will also attempt to address. Let me start by saying I have great respect for Chris Drury and I would select him on my team anytime, anyplace. With that being said, however, Drury has never broken the 70 point plateau in his NHL career. You cannot discount his heart or leadership, but how did Drury manage to turn a pair of 30+ goals, 65+ points seasons into a five year, $7+ million per season contract?

I believe that Sather fell into the trap of overpaying for these two because of the general lack of truly elite talent in the summer’s pool of UFA forwards. These two were undeniably two of the top three forwards available (Ryan Smyth being the third), but not one player available this summer is in the same mold as a Joe Thornton, Jarome Iginla, Vincent Lecavalier or Danny Heatley. But they were still paid as such!

I blogged previously about the uncertainty of the salary cap (the current CBA could expire as early as the summer preceding the 2009 season. This could be a very large problem for the Rangers, as they now have over $12 million is payroll locked up in these two players for at least the next five years. During that time, they will face re-signing Lundqvist, Marc Staal, Petr Prucha and likely even newer prospects like Alexei Cherepanov as they hit unrestricted free agency. The Rangers here are a perfect example of why I am against these long term (greater than 3-4 years) contracts. There is too much change over the course of half a decade to plan around any but a generational talent (i.e. the Penguins would be smart to sign Crosby to a 10 year extension, but that’s about it).

As far as this season goes, the Rangers have to be considered a Stanley Cup favourite, so long as Lundqvist remains healthy and one of Gomez or Drury can find some chemistry on the top line. The departure of Kevin Weekes, who played in only 14 games last season, could very well prove the undoing of this team, which now lacks an experienced goaltender behind sensational King Henrik. Should he become injured, don’t be surprised if the Rangers make a move to pick up a veteran goaltender from a team like Los Angeles or Phoenix (both currently loaded with experienced if not incredible tenders). Of course, Lundqvist has not proved injury prone so far in his young NHL career, so Ranger fans don’t need to start panicking just yet.

Major Additions: Josef Vasicek, Andy Sutton, Joey MacDonald, Mike Comrie, Bill Guerin, Ruslan Fedotenko, Jonathan Sim

Major Subtractions: Aaron Asham, Sean Hill, Ryan Smyth, Richard Zednik, Tom Poti, Viktor Kozlov, Jason Blake, Alexei Yashin

Analysis

Is it fair to judge a General Manager’s success purely after the final results are in? Garth Snow sure hopes not. Widely praised for prying Ryan Smyth away for a few middling prospects at the trade deadline last year (a move that surely contributed to his team squeaking into the post-season), Snow must now be looked at as the GM who parted ways with prospects to get a team loaded with impending UFA’s a few extra games, then couldn’t keep that core together.

The Islanders lost big in the early days of free agency and could only fine mid-to-low tier replacements. While players like Guerin and Comrie are consistent performers, they’re not consistent first line performers. Nor do they come without question marks - Comrie over his work ethic and Guerin over his age.

The departure of Yashin, while a long-term blessing, will hurt in the short term (and the lengthy cap hit of his buyout will haunt the team for years and years).

The departures of Poti, Zednik and Kozlov are more obviously and inarguably bad news for Islander fans. Not one of those three were adequately replaced, and suitable replacements from within are unlikely to say the least. The acquisition of Marc-Andre Bergeron was a very pleasent surprise that will at least soften the blow, however.

The Islanders will likely miss the playoffs this season. They’ve lost too much ground and the teams around them have improved too much for anyone to bank on otherwise. While Ted Nolan has done an admirable job with the pieces he’s been given, it’s unreasonable to expect him to work miracles - and that’s just what would be needed for this team to make the playoffs.

Major Additions: Daniel Briere, Scott Hartnell, Kimmo Timmonen, Joffrey Lupul, Jason Smith

Major Subtractions: Todd Fedoruk, Mike York, Geoff Sanderson, Joni Pitkanen

Analysis

Wow! Talk about big changes over the off-season. Will it mean big changes in the standings?

I’m not quite convinced just yet. While I greatly respect many of the changes the Flyers made, such a large influx of players often results in an adjustment period that can yield… disappointing results in the short term.

Are the Flyers a better team than they were a few months ago? Of course! But the improvements on paper won’t necessarily result in immediate improvements on the ice. Case in point: Daniel Briere. He bounced around the league for years before becoming an offensive powerhouse in Buffalo. Obviously the changed rules helped a small, fast player like him, but what about the premiere offensive talents he got to play with. Can Briere be reasonably expected to repeat his recent success without the likes of Johan Hecht, Maxim Afinogenov and Chris Drury in supporting roles?

The one area the Flyers can be expected to improve immediately and drastically is in goal. Martin Biron is an instant upgrade and has really deserved a better shot at an undisputed #1 position than he ever received in Buffalo. That change alone should rocket the Flyers at least into playoff contention.

Unless the new additions gel almost immediately, the Flyers will struggle to make the playoffs once again. They missed the playoffs a year ago by a whopping 32 points and few teams above them got substantially worse. But they certainly won’t be the pushover they were last season, and substantial improvement in their young players could easily catapult them from bubble team to challenging for the division title (though I wouldn’t count on it).

Major Additions: Karel Pilar, Alexandre Giroux, Ken Klee, Todd White, Eric Perrin

Major Subtractions: Andy Sutton, Shane Hnidy, Eric Belanger, Greg de Vries, Jonathan Sim

Analysis

The Thrashers panicked last season, parting with a number of prospects and picks when it appeared they would again fail to miss the playoffs. Well, they were able to make the post-season but were neatly swept in the first round. So much for that plan. The end result? The Thrashers have seven players heading towards unrestricted free agency (not counting backup goaltenders Johan Hedberg and Fred Brathwaite), most notably explosive forward Marian Hossa, who looks to make a substantial raise on his $6 million salary cap hit next summer. With the Thrashers’ ownership in an ugly legal battle, the team may not be able to offer Hossa the dollars or the term that he wants. And if he has another season like the past few years, his price is only going to go up.

In the short term, in the Thrashers have an improving young goaltender in Kari Lehtonen (due for a raise, probably before next summer). Bobby Holik will either be let go or expected to sign at a considerable discount. Todd White is a solid player who can be counted on to fill in first-line minutes if it becomes neccessary.

The blueline is more of a concern. Alexei Zhitnik isn’t really cut out to be a #1 defenceman any more, while the players expected to round out the top six are neither good enough to form a really potent blueline nor young enough to be expected to improve, nor cheap enough to justify fielding such a weak group.

I don’t see the Thrashers making the playoffs a second time. They have the elite talent but are thin everywhere else. They lack the stability as a franchise to offer much hope of signing Hossa to a long term contract, and in trading away their picks and prospects they’ve weakened their prospect pool in exchange for an aging defenceman and four extra games last year. Not exactly smart management.

The Southest division remains one of the weakest in the NHL, so the Thrashers won’t likely be a basement team, but not much can reasonably be expected of them despite their easy schedule. Though their fans may not like it, the franchise may be better served moving Hossa at the trading deadline than in pursuing another (likely short-lived) playoff appearance.

Major Additions: Brad Lukowich, Michel Ouellet

Major Subtractions: Luke Richardson, Eric Healey, Ruslan Fedotenko, Cory Sarich, Eric Perrin

Analysis

If any team is proof that the salary cap has risen beyond reason, it is the Tampa Bay Lightning. A team that features Vincent Lecavalier, Martin St. Louis, Brad Richards and Dan Boyle, but has been knowingly thin behind those four and all but desperate for a starting goaltender cannot be sitting at nearly $8 million below the salary cap if they expect to compete for the Stanley Cup.

I can accept that there really weren’t any quality starting goaltenders available on the free agent market this summer but there are several available for trades at bargain prices (Martin Gerber might be worth a shot and Ottawa should be getting desperate to part with him as their negotiations with Danny Heatley and Jason Spezza heat up).

So if $42-ish million is the self imposed cap for the Lightning, what can they do to improve? Brad Richards is immovable. Lecavalier, St. Louis and Boyle are the heart and soul of the team. In other words, Tampa will ice a team that for all intents and purposes is identical to the squad bounced pretty darned quickly from the playoffs a year ago.

Tampa will remain competitive but unless their goaltending improves drastically they’ll be hard pressed to even make the playoffs. Marc Denis will get another chance and aught to do better than last year, though that’s far from guaranteed to happen. They will likely stand pat until they see how their goaltending stands up. If they appear to be on the outside of the playoff picture, Dan Boyle will command plenty of attention on the trade market. If they are a bubble team (likely) they’ll like just stay the course. Vaclav Prospal is the only significant forward on the roster who’s looking at unrestricted free agency next summer, so the team can afford to be patient for at least another year.

So what does this mean? It likely means that Tampa Bay fans will have more fun watching Vinny this year than hoping for playoff success, but it also means there’s good times ahead. If the cap - and I mean Tampa’s self-imposed cap, not the NHL salary cap - increases, there is ample room to add a top pairing defenceman and a veteran goaltender. And that would be a team to watch out for.