“Here’s another idea. The Senators should make a bold and concerted pitch to get Mats Sundin. Yes, Mats Sundin, the captain of their hated archrival Toronto Maple Leafs.”

While the idea most definitely holds some merit (Sundin has to be considered more valuable than Forsberg at this stage of their respective careers) there are also some stumbling blocks beyond what Campbell mentions.

Most notably, he suggests this move would (finally) trigger a necessary rebuild in Toronto but then argues the Leafs should hold out for Mike Fisher as part of the return package for their beloved captain. Fisher, signed for the next 5 years, he argues, could be an instant fit as the replacement first line center in Toronto.

Now, how exactly does this spur a rebuild for the Leafs? Replacing Sundin with a 27 year old would merely perpetuate more of the same in Toronto. If the Leafs are indeed out of the playoff picture as the trade deadline approaches, Ferguson (or whoever is in charge at that time) would be remiss if he did not at least discuss Sundin waiving his no-trade clause. All feel-good stories aside, it makes immense sense for the Leafs to bolster their youth and depth with a few extra draft picks or prospects rather than standing pat and missing the playoffs with nothing to show for it.

If Sundin continues to play the way he has, we’ll continue to see rumours surrounding him, of course. The flip side is that if Sundin continues at his current pace, he has a good chance of almost single-handedly dragging the Leafs to at least within spitting-distance of the post-season.

Let me point out before I go any further that I’m not a fan of criticizing NHL coaches (I make a willing exception for a few, notably Mike Keenan and Bob Hartley). Anytime I wonder why a team has failed to make this adjustment or change that strategy, I remind myself that I’m watching an NHL game while sitting on my couch and eating nachos. I have just slightly less experience than the man I am about to criticize.

With that out of the way, I have to point out what seem to be some pretty obvious problems with the strategies in use by the Toronto power play.

The Leafs’ power play is run by Mats Sundin and Tomas Kaberle. The two move the puck back and forth, looking for openings for open shots from either themselves or the defenceman on the right point (usually Bryan McCabe, lately Pavel Kubina). Occasionally they also look for the cross-ice pass, though with Darcy Tucker out of the lineup this has not been seen much. While this is a quite legitimate way to run a power play - two legitimate shot threats, two open forwards to look for tips or rebounds, and an alternate threat from the far point - I make out three fundamental flaws with the specifics in the Leafs’ case:

First, the Leafs lack a skilled playmaker down low. Opposition teams know full well the shots are going to come from one of the defenceman or Sundin, and they play those three tightly as a result. When the Leafs do move the puck down low they don’t have a single player in their lineup who poses a significant threat from that angle. Kyle Wellwood normally would fill that role, ideally suited for it given his right handed shot and creative passing skills. Until he returns, there’s just no danger the Leafs can offer from down low.

Second (and related to the first), too many shooters, no passers. While Kaberle can move the puck well, his position is always too well covered (he’s directly between the two credible threats to shoot). Sundin is an excellent playmaker but his job on the power play unit is to shoot as often as possible. If he’s going to be the playmaker he needs to move lower towards the goal line to stretch out the defenders, and the entire power play would change its shape.

Third, the two remaining forwards are underutilized. They aren’t active enough in high danger areas to force the opposition to cover them and they don’t create enough of a threat in front of the net. A shot heavy power play works if and when the forwards in such situations crash the net at every possible opportunity. The best goaltender in the world can’t stop a third or fourth rebound, and the power play team has an extra player on the ice and should get to most rebounds first.

I do understand that Maurice would want to put Blake and Antropov out on the first power play unit (to keep the latter hot and hopefully get the former going), but with such a shooter-heavy fivesome on the ice a crash-the-net strategy seems like the only logical strategy. So why haven’t we seen it yet?

Of course, all of this is somewhat of a moot point. Adding a few power play goals won’t help the Leafs’ woeful goals against average, which is the real problem they’re struggling.

I started looking at Power Rankings a few years ago as a way to measure the relative “strength” of teams. Points is a very poor standard because at any given time some teams have played more games than others. Winning percentage is better but doesn’t take into account the difficulty of each teams’ schedule. And so, last year I developed a formula that took into account winning percentage and the average winning percentage of each team’s opponents (weighted for games played). But I still wasn’t happy.

This year I have made two major changes to my Power Rankings. First, I’ve incorporated recent success and schedule difficulty, hoping to show how hot or cold streaks can dramatically influence how strong a team is. So now the most recent games a team plays count for more than the teams played at the beginning of the year.

The second change was unplanned until a few days ago. I realized that giving teams extra credit merely for playing strong teams - regardless of how many points they managed to pick up in those games - was just as bad as ignoring schedule difficulty. The answer? I now include in my calculations an adjusted winning percentage which is calculated based on how well a team does against each team. So beating strong team counts for more than beating a weak team. Toronto receives more than one “point” for their overtime loss against Ottawa opening night. However, they receive no credit for losing to Ottawa the next day.

Anyways, I hope these changes result in a more accurate ranking of just how good the NHL teams are. I have some final tweaking to finish off, but will begin posting power rankings and game predictions sometime in the next week.

Then I saw this article this morning from Steve Simmons and my calm mood got thrown out the window.

This is John Ferguson’s legacy. He made the mess but can’t clean it up. Question is: Can anyone?

First off, yes, the Leafs have problems. They gave up too many goals a year ago, they’ve given up too many goals this year. But let’s at least be fair year. When you’ve played but 4 games, one outing where your opponent nets 7 markers stilts the average just a bit beyond reasonable. The Leafs currently sport an ugly 4.25 GAA, but removing the blowout against the Hurricanes drops that to 3.33 - still ugly, but far less atrocious. If you count only Vesa Toskala’s first two games the GAA drops to about a 2.5.

Fair to remove the worst two outcomes of a 4 game season? Of course not! But recognize that the Leafs ugly totals in goals against have far more to do with the fourth game they’ve played than with the three that preceded it.

The commitment was made by Ferguson to build this team around the most expensive defence in the National Hockey League. That wasn’t the plan — there never has been a plan — but it’s how things have worked out.

Seven million a year for McCabe.

OK, here’s where Simmons loses me entirely. For the record, as if it hasn’t been pointed out enough times already, McCabe’s salary this season is different from his salary cap hit. That he’s taking home over $7 million this season does not mean he uses up $7 million in cap space - his average salary over the course of his contract is $5.75 million.

Would discussing McCabe’s faults as a $5.75 million defenceman rather than a $7 million man have changed the argument? No! So why make yourself look silly with such a glaring error?

It’s no surprise I’m not a fan of Bryan McCabe, particularly his monster contract. It’s no secret that I think the Leafs would be better off benching him and playing a rookie in his place most nights. It’s no enigma that I feel his albatross of a contract is what does - and most frightening, will - tie the Leafs’ hands when attempting to lure a replacement for Mats Sundin.

However, there’s more to this story than McCabe tripping over his own skates for $5.75 million per season.

As David Johnson pointed out recently, little separates the Leafs and the supposed cream of the crop Ottawa Senators. The Leafs stack up quite well against their provincial rivals in terms of goals scored and shots allowed. The difference between the two teams over the past two years has boiled down almost entirely to goaltending - as in the Sens have had it and the Leafs have not. The supposedly sloppy and invisible Leafs defence gave up about 150 shots less than the Senators did last season.

Behind the Net is really making me take a closer look at the Leafs’ blueline, notably Bryan McCabe. Statistics do not back up McCabe’s label as the sloppy, offense-not-defence blueliner. The Leafs goals against average with McCabe on the ice last season was 2.63 (these numbers count only 5-on-5 play, something I will get to in a minute); with McCabe off the ice the GAA rose to 2.72. In other words, the Blue’n'White were a little better at keeping the puck out of their own net with McCabe on the ice than on the bench.

I think there are three reasons why McCabe gets so much heat for his play: firstly, his contract is monstrous. He’s the highest paid player on the team - he makes more than Mats Sundin, more than Toskala and Raycroft combined (not true after this season, but close), just a bit more than Nik Antropov and Jason Blake combined. With big money comes big responsibility, and when McCabe tries to do too much, he inevitably fails. He’s much better at being a $3 million defenceman than a $5.75 million dollar one.

Secondly, McCabe is prone to making the glaring, brutally obvious giveaways. When he decides to make a gaff, he goes all-out - gift wrapped and hand-delivered. Contrast that to Hal Gill, who is often stripped by fleeter opposing forwards but tends to at least maintain position and presence afterwards, McCabe’s giveaways look worse and draw far more attention.

And thirdly, the Leafs don’t play McCabe to his strengths. Bryan McCabe has played nearly five minutes per game short-handed so far this season. Now, I know the Leafs are short-handed alot, and I know they’re a bit short on shut-down defenceman, but 5 minutes a night short-handed is just ridiculous for Byran McCabe. I know they lack the size, but give more of this time to the swifter (and more sound positionally!) Tomas Kaberle or Ian White. Give it to the more defensive-minded Andy Wozniewski.

McCabe’s contract is a reality the Leafs have to deal with but it’s not as bad as some make it out to be. But both he and the Leafs need to start playing to his (and their) strengths before it’s too late.

Major Subtractions: Daniel Briere, Chris Drury, Dainius Zubrus, Ty Conklin, Martin Biron*

Analysis

Yes, Biron was lost a year ago, not over this summer. However, the first full season for the Sabres without him will place additional pressure on Ryan Miller. While he seems more than capable of handling that pressure, this team now lacks a fail-safe in goal should Miller be injured.

Of course the loss of co-captains and offensive leaders Drury and Briere remain the most obvious change, though the Sabres are perhaps the one team in the league that is well-suited to handle such losses without missing a step. Obviously the team has taken a step backwards, and it’s anyone’s guess how players like Thomas Vanek, Derek Roy and Maxim Afinogenov will handle the pressure of being the main show instead of the supporting cast. No one doubts the farm team can fill the ranks with capable players, but leadership on and off the ice now falls squarely on the shoulders of players without much experience in such roles.

Personally, I barely see this team slowing down, let alone stumbling. Think back to the days just after the lockout, when Buffalo chose to ice what was then considered a weak, inexperienced, sub-par roster because of their unwillingness to spend up to the salary cap. Sure worked out well for the team. There’s a reason that Lindy Ruff is the longest-serving coach in the league, and those predicting a big fall from the Sabres are about to discover what that is.

Major Subtractions: Mike Comrie, Tom Preissing, Peter Schaefer

Analysis

Patience didn’t save John Muckler’s job, but it may have been just what the Ottawa Senators needed.

Remember the start of last season, when everyone was calling for the team to trade Daniel Alfredsson? The Senators struggled early a year ago but keeping the team together was obviously the right decision. Fast forward to the summer, when trade rumours surrounded Martin Gerber right through pre-season (where he played extremely well). With Ray Emery on the shelf for an undetermined time-frame, Gerber is the go-to guy in Canada’s capital once again. The Senators may still look to trade him, if only to free up cap space in their attempts to re-sign Danny Heatley, Jason Spezza and Wade Redden before the summer, but it won’t happen anytime soon.

The Senators went deep into the playoffs last year and kept most of their team together, but that doesn’t mean they’re the automatic favourites in the East. The loss of Preissing (the Sens’ highest scoring blueliner last year), Comrie and Schaefer mean the team once again lacks scoring depth behind its big three of Alfredsson, Spezza and Heatley. If enough teams learn from the convincing five-game thrashing the Anaheim Ducks delivered the Senators in the Cup finals, we may see more teams take a hard, fast, rugged forecheck against this team. While defencemen Anton Volchenkov and Chris Phillips can handle that, the rest of the defencemen are notoriously less prepared for it. Redden, in particular, seems to have trouble justifying his $6.5 million contract when he’s playing in his own end.

Other question marks remain but most are minor at worst. The team will have a tough time keeping its core together past this year, so they know this might be their best chance of winning as a group. The Senators have to be considered the favourites to win the East this year.

Major Subtractions: Michael Peca, Jeff O’Neil, J.S. Aubin

Analysis

John Ferguson Junior must be sweating by now. With one of his major acquisitions, Bell, suspended for at least 15 games, and a second, Toskala, shaky at best in his pre-season appearances, it’s not looking so good for the Leafs so far - lucky the games don’t start counting for another few days.

Let’s be honest here - Toskala should be better than we’ve seen so far. For that matter, Andrew Raycroft should be better than he was a year ago, now that he has some competition in the crease and a little less pressure.

Now how about the bad news? The bad news is the Leafs give up too many high quality scoring chances, their best player isn’t getting any younger, and they continue to trade away draft picks like they’re going out of style. This is a team desperate to win - finally - but not desperate for a Stanley Cup. And therein lies the problem.

I try not to pay much attention to pre-season games but there are some distressing signs from the perspective of a Leafs’ fan. I’m not overly concerned by Toskala’s early troubles (it’s been about 5 months since Toskala played in NHL game that counted; he deserves some time to get his timing back); I’m prepared to be patient with him. What does concern me is the continuation of the problems that plagued the team last year, problems that were far more troubling to me last season than when Raycroft struggled. Too many defensive lapses. Too many opponents given too much time in the Leafs’ zone. Too many missed opportunities to clear the puck away from danger zones. Too many penalties. These are problems that cannot be fixed by adding a goaltender or a 40-goal scorer. These are systematic, horrific lapses in judgment and discipline, on a team and individual level, that if left unchecked will doom a team - any team. And this is particularly important here because the Leafs, unlike many teams, do not have the skill or the talent to make up for these lapses.

Part of me really wants Blake to score 40 or more, Toskala to shine and the Leafs to roar into the playoffs and score a huge upset over the Senators in the first round. But realistically, I can’t see this team making the playoffs. And part of me thinks that could be the best thing that could happen to the franchise.

Major Subtractions: David Abeischer, Sheldon Souray, Radek Bonk, Mike Johnson, Sergei Samsonov

Analysis

What will be the story for the Canadiens this year - their inability to land a free agent forward or the continuing growth of their young talent?

It remains unclear whether blue-chip prospect Carey Price will be given the chance to share the pipes with Christobel Huet or sent back to the farm club for further seasoning. The good news is that the other alternative, Jaroslav Halak, played admirably at the end of last season as the Habs made a late push towards the playoffs. The failure of that push cannot be laid at the feet of Halak.

Despite the presence of three quality goaltenders, the crease situation in Montreal is not as clear as it may appear. Huet has been stellar since he came out of nowhere to steal the job of Jose Theodore two years ago, but it cannot be ignored that the tailspin that cost the Habs a playoff spot last year came well before Huet was injured. Halak was brilliant but has a grand total of 16 games NHL experience. Price is already being hailed as the future of the franchise but has never played a regular season game in the NHL. Still, you have to believe at least one of these goaltenders can provide what Montreal needs.

Up front not much has changed. The loss of Johnson and Bonk will be felt on penalty kill, though Smolinski will help alleviate their loss while providing a little more punch offensively. The Habs have to hope they stay healthy and (especially) get more out of Alexei Kovalev. They have the talent to score goals - it’s just a question of experience, depth and health.

On the blueline, Hamrlik may not have Souray’s cannon from the point but he’s no slouch offensively and will be much more responsible in his own end - on balance a definite improvement. Craig Rivet didn’t play much last year (either injured or benched) and the team is hoping the loss of his experience and leadership will be offset by the return of Brisebois.

Enough improvement to make the playoffs? My gut says no. It’s not so much that the Habs aren’t a quality team; it’s just that their improvements are marginal at best while teams like Florida added more. If the Canadiens can regain and maintain the specialty teams form with which they started last year with, however, they will be a force to be reckoned with.

Major Subtractions: Joey MacDonald, Nathan Dempsey, Petr Tenkrat, Jason York, Sean Donovan, Hannu Toivonen

Analysis

Oh the sorry Bruins. Still reeling from the awful trade that sent superstar Joe Thornton away for spare parts, Boston has a new coach, a new goalie and hopes to at least get itself out of the basement of the North East division - but the road will be a long one.

First, the good news - there are not many teams with a 1-2 punch at centre as talented as Marc Savard and Patrice Bergeron. If Phil Kessel plays pivot on the third line, make that one of the best (and youngest!) 1-2-3 punches. He could also be played on the wing with one of the previous two players, adding substantial speed in exchange for a little depth.

More good news: Manny Fernandez is a proven starter who will play a substantial role in bringing down the Bruins’ woeful 3.48 goals-against per game from a year ago (29th in the league).

Now for the sobering bad news: Fernandez is used to playing in a substantial defensive system and will have a rude welcome playing without that bulwark in front of him. Boston’s blueline remains big but slow and the fast, skilled forwards - so plentiful in the Northeast division - can skate circles around them all night long.

Now for the really bad news: Boston finished last in this division last year and not much looks ready to change. Montreal treaded water but most of their core is fairly young and should be a little better this season. Toronto added a goaltender. Buffalo lost ground but remain far ahead of the Bruins in every department. And the Senators lost virtually nothing from a year ago and look poised to dominate the division and maybe the conference. With 8 games against each of those opponents, the Bruins face a tough schedule.

With new head coach Claude Julien (who deserved a better deal than he received from the Devils last season) and several important pieces either added or maturing (Fernandez and Bergeron/Kessel, respectively), the Bruins should be a much better team than a year ago. But they are not likely to move much in the standings or in their point total, because every improvement they have made has been at least matched by nearly every team around and above them in the conference. Fernandez is no Thomas Vokoun. Schaefer is no Scott Gomez or Chris Drury. And the list goes on.

If Montreal or Toronto falls apart, the Bruins could move up the list. But on their own? Don’t count on it.

Major Subtractions: Jim Fahey, Dan LaCouture, Scott Clemmesen, Brad Lukowich, Brian Rafalski, Scott Gomez

Analysis

Last summer the Devils spent most of their time scrambling to deal with their salary cap troubles, due mostly to the salaries of Alexander Mogilny and Vladmir Malakhov counting against the cap while not playing for the team. Those salaries are now gone and the Devils came into the summer with their two cornerstones - Martin Brodeur and Patrik Elias - already signed long term. Despite all of that, the Devils were unable (or unwilling?) to resign UFA Scott Gomez or Brian Rafalski.

So now what do we expect? Certainly not a repeat as division championship - the Penguins were only 2 points back last year and got better where the Devils got worse. Certainly not missing the playoffs - so long as Brodeur stays healthy he can be expected to almost single-handedly drag his team into the playoffs if that’s what it takes.

The argument can be made that New Jersey quite rightly was unwilling to overpay to keep Gomez around, however, it’s hard to make that argument about Rafalski; furthermore, the addition of Zubrus, while more affordable and fair than the grossly inflated $7+ million per year contract Gomez landed, does not adequately replace Gomez’s production. For that, the Devils will lean on newly re-signed Zach Parise and hope he can handle the weight.

The Atlantic division is entirely up for grabs this year. The Penguins are the early favourites for many but they are young and it wouldn’t be a stretch to see them regress this season. The Flyers are hugely improved but big changes often necessitate an adjustment period before they pay dividends. Ditto for the Rangers. I’d have to pick the Rangers to lead the pack, followed by the Penguins, which means the Devils will be in a dogfight for the playoffs rather than for home-ice advantage (best that 3rd place in a division can hope for is 5th seed).