NHL analysis

Major Additions: Aaron Miller, Curtis Sanford, Byron Ritchie, Brad Isbister

Major Subtractions: Danny Sabourin

Analysis

Vancouver had the cap room this summer to pursue some scoring help but has instead been content with some small changes. After a few seasons pressed tightly against the salary cap, it seems fair to say that Dave Nonis is looking forward to having some breathing room to make moves during the season.

Unfortunately, as good as this team is / was / can be, they face a similar situation to the Minnesota Wild - how much better can they really be? The Canucks were among the hottest teams in the league through the second half of the year but were still swept aside pretty easily by the eventual Stanley Cup champion Anaheim Ducks. When it comes to the playoffs, one scoring line just isn’t enough.

The good news is that available cap space. Should the Canucks add a high caliber forward or two via trade late in the season, they could become a force to be reckoned with.

Assuming Luongo and the Sedin twins stay healthy, there is little reason to believe the Canucks will miss the playoffs this season. However, without some deeper scoring lines, they will likely be shut out once again once they get there.

Here are things I’ve noticed about each of the remaining 8 teams:

Buffalo Sabres: Strong, fast, deep, talented - but not very tough.  The Sabres don’t have a particularly gritty team, and the insertion of Tim Connolly onto the fourth line (while obviously the right decision) has only added to that.  I just can’t see the Sabres lasting against a team like San Jose or Anaheim if they were to make the finals.  That being said, I wouldn’t want to be the team to face them or tell them that.

New York Rangers: Just not good enough to beat the Sabre (not that anyone is surprised).  While Henrik Lundqvist has been excellent, and Jaromir Jagr looks like he’s out to prove something, the defence and the second, third and fourth lines simply lack the skill to skate with their opponents.  This is not to say that the Rangers can’t win.  But they’ll have to be very, very patient if they wish to do so.

New Jersey Devils: The Devils are a team that just wins.  Of course it starts with Brodeur, but it continues with everyone from Scott Gomez (10 assists so far in the playoffs) on down.  That being said, they needed overtime to salvage a slit of their opening two home games against the Senators.  As long as Ray Emery can continue to remain within spitting distance of Brodeur’s play, the Devils will be hard pressed to lengthen this series, let alone win it.

Ottawa Senators: So far, the Sens look determined to break their reputation as playoff chokers.  For how long?  They may still fall apart, but it won’t be happening anytime soon.  They still could have used Gary Roberts, but maybe, just maybe, they’ll make do without him.  If I didn’t know any better I’d swear Mike Comrie was playing for a new contract…

Detroit Red Wings: Very nearly went down 2-0 heading to San Jose.  Detroit may just have their hands full with a bigger, faster, strong Sharks team.  The good news is Pavel Datsyuk is playing up to his new contract, Hasek remains one of the best, and the Wings got past the first round.

San Jose Sharks: My current pick for “team to beat” remaining in the playoffs.  The Sharks forwards are so big, so tough, so mean, and so all around goooood it’s almost scary.  Craig Rivet was worth the first round pick the Sharks gave up after all.  And maybe the Sharks should be moving Toskala instead of Nabokov.

Anaheim Ducks: The third and fourth liners are hardly playing.  That’s both the best and worst thing the Ducks could hope for here.  The Ducks have some of the best players in the league on their top two lines and defence pairs, but the rest of their line up is somewhat weaker than that of their opponents.  In long games and long series’, that is potentially worrisome.  Do they have the stamina if they’re only playing half their roster?

Vancouver Canucks: Managed to split the games in Anaheim (which I didn’t think they would) but then dropped game three in Vancouver.  They certainly can’t afford to drop game four, and I’m not sure winning it would be enough, either.  However, I have to give the team credit - how different would the situation be if they hadn’t suffered the injuries to their blueline?

Key players for Vancouver: Sedin twins, Roberto Luongo, Trevor Linden

Key players for Anaheim: Chris Pronger, Teemu Selanne, Scott Niedermayer

Analysis: Vancouver got the easiest draw in the first round and barely outscored the Stars. Luongo did everything he was expected to do, Linden did far more than that, and then everything petered out.

With all due respect to Trevor Linden, he cannot be your highest scoring player in the playoffs. Marcus Naslund and the Sedin twins need to get moving and moving fast, because the Ducks will be flying from the first puck drop. And they’re fast, and they’re big and they’re mean. If they can do so without taking too many penalties, the Canucks will be lucky to see more than 2 home dates.

I’m pulling for the Canucks because I have to hope for the Cup to come back to Canada (and Ottawa doesn’t count ;)) but I wouldn’t put any money on them.

Prediction: Ducks in 5

Key players for Dallas: Mike Modano, Marty Turco, Brenden Morrow

Key players for Vancouver: Roberto Luongo, Markus Naslund, Kevin Bieksa

Analysis: Well, it’s the playoffs, otherwise known as that time of year when Turco takes his perennial nose-dive.  Just to make sure there’s enough pressure on the $5.7 million goaltender, across the rink from him will be the potential Hart and Vezina trophy winner.

Dallas has done pretty well this year with an oft-decimated roster, but they don’t have to mustard to compete with the Canucks.  Vancouver has been absolutely stunning once they got their act together around December, and Luongo looks absolutely driven.  He knows he has plenty to prove and he looks focused and ready.  I wouldn’t want to bet against him.  If he gets the help he needs - Naslund, are you listening? - Vancouver will be almost unbeatable.

This won’t be an exciting series to watch but it could be an important one.  If Turco surprises us all and outplays Luongo, Dallas could become the dark horse team to watch.  If the series goes as expected, Luongo will probably become the key focus of the Western Conference playoff race.

Prediction: Vancouver in five

Well, the dust is starting to settle on Bob Clarke, GM of the Philadelphia Flyers, decision to sign Vancouver Canucks restricted free agent and budding young forward Ryan Kesler to a $1.9 million offer sheet. For those who don’t know, the last time an offer sheet was used was nearly a decade ago when the Columbus Blue Jackets tried to steal Sergei Federov away from the Detroit Red Wings by offering him a very lucrative contract. Detroit matched, but resentment lingered - some would say continues to linger - between General Managers who feel forced into the difficult choice between dishing out the dollars and watching a young prospect depart for little return.

In Vancouver’s case, they are now paying Kesler $1.9 million, approximately double what Vancouver is thought to have offered before the offer sheet was put on the table. For a team still looking to add depth, particularly on the wing, the extra million dollars could have and would have been spent elsewhere gladly. But the other option, watching Kesler depart for a mere second round draft pick, was hardly any better.

There are numerous reasons why offer sheets are so rare. One is that Clarke now gets to carry the distinction of being the only GM in recent memory to use one, an ugly little smear other GM’s, particularly Nonis in Vancouver, are certain to remember if and when Clarke is looking to deal in the future. There are only 30 GM’s (no, Mr. Wang does not count, no matter how much of the job he decides to take on) and only so many places to go looking for that missing piece to complete your team. It never helps to piss off your working partners.

A second reason is that the salary cap exists for all teams. Next year it could be Clarke who is squeezed close to the cap with restricted free agents to tie up. If Antero Niittymaki steps up this year, he’ll be in line for a substantial raise and could garner attention from around the league. Same goes for Joni Pitkanen, possibly the best all around defenceman on the team last year - certainly the most consistent - at the young age of 22 and the bargain price tag of $2 million. And the next summer will be no better for Clarke, with Umberger, Carter and Richards all becoming RFA’s.

Offer sheets are very interesting now that the salary cap is in place but will likely not be used any more often than we’ve seen this summer. Many teams in the league could offer Brian Gionta or Paul Martin contracts that the New Jersey Devils literally could not afford to match, yet not one team has done so. The GM’s are smart enough to realize that the short term gain of “stealing” one player won’t mean much when they lose their jobs because no one will trade with them down the road. And no one wants to sweat that their budding young star will be the recipient of an offer sheet when they have cap issues of their own.

Additions: Roberto Luongo, Lukas Krajicek, Willie Mitchell, Marc Choinard, Taylor Pyatt, Jan Bulis, Yannick Tremblay

Subtractions: Alex Auld, Todd Bertuzzi, Bryan Allen, Nolan Baumgartner, Keith Carney, Dan Cloutier, Jarkko Ruutu, Eric Weinrich

Analysis

Vancouver was not supposed to miss the playoffs last year, plain and simple. They were expected to be a contender and make a long run through the playoffs. And despite the emergence of the Sedin twins as legitimate first liners, a number of factors led to their disapointing 9th place finish. The first was a horrendous string of injuries. Dan Cloutier missed the majority of the season, though I for one thought that Auld more than handled the job. Worse were the injuries on the blueline, and even up front. At one point all three of Vancouver’s top defencemen were injured, and though not publically disclosed during the season, Naslund at the least, and possibly Brendan Morrisson and a few others were battling injuries through most of the year.

Assuming Naslund and Morrisson can bounce back, the Sedin twins continue to develop, and Vancouver can find a couple wingers to fill out their top two lines, Vancouver can legitimately claim two of the best lines in the NHL. However, I find it more likely that Morrison will be left to play without Naslund, and with weaker linemates will see his ice time and points diminish. A line of Sedin-Sedin-Naslund however could be very dangerous.

The blueline may look very different from last season but little has actually changed. Weinrich and Carney, brought in at the trade deadline to replace injured bodies, are gone, as is Ed Jovanoski. Willie Mitchel was brought, and I see that as a great move. Jovo is an excellent defenceman but his defensive play was lacking at times, to say the least. Mitchell should be rock solid and should make the Canucks much better in their own end. And you’d have to expect Ohlund and Salo to be healthier than last season.

Easily the biggest change for the Canucks was the Bertuzzi for Luongo trade. While I didn’t like how Luongo treated Florida last year, he’s a definite upgrade from Auld or Cloutier. Luongo in my mind has yet to prove himself - zero playoffs games - but he’s spent his entire career keeping Florida in games they had no business being in. He and Vancouver should be very good for themselves. Losing Bertuzzi was no loss - he was a distraction more than anything and will almost certainly never repeat his career highs from a few years ago with his past weighing him down. Even though it also cost them young Alex Auld, Vancouver pulled a fast one on Florida, acquiring one of the best goaltenders in the league for Bertuzzi.

Anson Carter is not on the list of subtractions but probably will not be back. Vancouver is too close to the cap for his (reported) asking price. That’s too bad, since he really clicked with the Sedin twins. That kind of chemistry is hard to find and would have benefitted all three players - not to mention the Canucks team - more than Carter may realize. Oh well, that’s the business end of things.

Vancouver’s simply too good a team to miss the playoffs again, barring another year of unforseen injuries. Luongo will get his chance to prove himself in the playoffs. The Sedin twins should be even better and will complete their takeover of the first line.