NHL analysis

I’m convinced that shots are not sufficient indicators of scoring chances.  Even over the course of a full season, teams that give up plenty of shots don’t necessarily give up a lot of goals.  Sure, solid goaltending helps in this regard, but after keeping an eye on a few different teams over the past few months I’ve become convinced this is not the only factor.

Consider the New Jersey Devils and Toronto Maple Leafs.  The two teams are currently tied for 7th in the NHL, with each team giving up an average of 28.7 shots per game.  The Devils translate that into a league-low 2.32 goals against average, while the Leafs give up almost a full goal per game more, fitting in at 3.18 goals against per game, good enough for 25th in the league.

Now, Martin Brodeur helps.  Obviously.  He’s in a whole different league than Andrew Raycroft, even when Raycroft is fully on his game.  Are goaltenders the whole story here?

Stats can’t back me up here but after watching the Devils and Leafs game last week, it seems obvious that the Leafs give up far more quality scoring chances than the Devils do.  The Devils clear the front of the net, stack the slot and force the shots to come from the outside.  When the Leafs did manage to get a shot through with traffic in front, even Brodeur couldn’t do much to stop it.

The Leafs defence should be better than the Devils at this sort of thing.  The Devils blueline features Brian Rafalski and then drops off to Colin White, Paul Martin, Brad Lukowich and John Oduya.  Total salary cap hit this year (including as a sixth man Andrew Greene): a little under $12 million per year.

The Leafs, on the other hand, feature a top six of Bryan McCabe, Pavel Kubina, Tomas Kaberle, Hal Gill, Ian White and Carlo Colaiacovo.  Price tag: about $19 million.

The Leafs get more offence from the blueline, but not enough to justify the difference.  And in the meantime it always seems like Brodeur gets to face 25 shots per game from shallow angles with few bodies in his face while Raycroft dives around trying to follow the puck bouncing from open opponent to open opponent (see Mike Fisher’s first goal last night as an example).

Bottom line for Toronto: they need their expensive blueline to start playing like it’s price tag.  Bottom line for the league: I’d like to see them start keeping track of scoring chances.  I know a stat like that will be difficult to keep fair - people will invariably disagree over what constitutes a scoring chance.  However, that’s also true of hits, assists and more, but that hasn’t stopped anyone from keeping track of those statistics.  Even if the stats won’t be perfect, over the course of a full season I think it would be very telling - and interesting.

So earlier tonight New Jersey Devil’s goon Cam Janssen may have driven the final stake in the Leafs’ playoff aspirations this year when he knocked Tomas Kaberle out - literally - with a late, high hit, leaving his feet and lifting his elbow in the process.

Not one of the four officials on the ice saw the play, so the Leafs did not receive even a 2 minute power play in exchange for the loss of their best defenceman. The refs did make sure they called two borderline calls on the Leafs in the next five minutes, however.

I’m not going to argue about whether or not those Leaf penalties deserved to be called - the league has done its best to be clear that if you get your stick up, you will be spending two or less in the box. My problem is that if you’re going to enforce this zero tolerance policy over hooks that often have little impact on the gameplay and all but never create dangerous situations for players on the ice, then you’d sure as hell better show zero tolerance for this kind of crap.

And you’d better enforce it during the games. Janssen is likely to be suspended for his hit, but who cares? Janssen means nothing to the Devil’s season. The NHL could suspend Janssen forever and it would mean nothing to anyone but Janssen. With the Leafs’ season on the line they now have to play without their best defenceman down the stretch because a good threw a late hit.

Tonight was also an example of why the instigator is such a problem. In tonight’s case the Leafs had no one dressed who could have fought Janssen anyways, but even had someone tried the instigator rule would have meant the Leaf player who went after Janssen would have received an additional minor penalty and been ejected from the game. That seems fair.

Paul Hunter, TheStar.com:

Calling Toronto his “home,” captain Mats Sundin said he has no desire to leave the Maple Leafs even if it meant a more realistic shot at winning the Stanley Cup elsewhere.

All the trade talk that has surrounded Sundin this year ignores one little fact: with a one year team option in his current contract, Sundin is not tradeable as a rental player.  With Sundin goes that team option, meaning if the Leafs move Sundin, the team that acquires him will have to either work him into their payroll for next season or elect to let him walk.  And who would let Sundin walk given the option?

That team option, far more than Sundin’s no-trade clause, is what really ensures Sundin isn’t going anywhere this year.  Even if the team slips out of the playoff picture, Toronto will want to retain Sundin around for next season.  If they really start to tank, they’ll pursue moving him for draft picks and prospects at the next trade deadline, when his contract really expires (assuming they don’t re-negotiate his contract between now and then, of course).

Soon to be UFA Gary Roberts has been named quite often in trade rumours of late. As a Leafs’ fan, I saw plenty of this warrior and can definitely see the appeal he holds, especially as the playoffs draw near.

The Ottawa Sun reports that the Leafs and Senators are two teams that are among the most interested.

Roberts, 40, has battled injuries this year, but he’s back in the Florida lineup and has posted good numbers.

The reason the Senators like Roberts so much is because of the role he’s played against them in past playoff matchups when he was a member of the Leafs.

Roberts is a risk but less so than Peter Forsberg. He’d also be much cheaper. Though he can’t be expected to show the form he showed in the Leafs-Sens matchups of the pre-lockout NHL, the leadership and grit he would add to any team can’t be ignored.

Were it not for the possibility of Ottawa nabbing him, I can’t see JFJ making a serious bid for the winger. Business is business, but you’ve got to think there’s some leftover resentment from the contract dispute that led to Roberts’ (along with Joe Nieuwendyk ’s) defection to the Panthers in the first place.

That being said, I think Ferguson would roll out the welcome mat rather than see Roberts line up against the Leafs in a potential Sens-Leafs playoff round.

For the Sens, Roberts is just the kind of player the Sens have long been criticized for lacking.

David Johnson at Hockey Analysis looks at the Leafs’ chances of winning the Stanley Cup this year.

Too many people believe that having a lot of top end talent is what wins but that is not the case. If it was, Ottawa wouldn’t have had all the playoff failures they have had. Goaltending, depth and experience win in the playoffs. If Raycroft can provide top tier goaltending, as he has done since mid-January, then there is no reason why the Leafs cannot go on a lengthy playoff run. I know many will scoff at that idea, but it is reality. And honestly, are the Leafs any worse of a team this year than the Oilers were last year? I don’t think so.

All I will say is that if - IF - Raycroft maintains his recent level of play, anything is possible.

From The Star:

Raycroft got off to a great start to the season, with a 9-4-2 won-lost-OT record and a goals-against average of 2.67. He was looking more like the goalie who won the rookie-of-the-year award for the 2003-04 season with Boston. A groin injury struck on Nov. 9, and he missed a week.

He struggled since he returned, looking more like the goalie that lost his job in Boston last year to a career minor leaguer. He had a goals against average of 2.67 and a 9-11-2 record as the Leafs plummeted down the Eastern Conference standings.

(Emphasis mine).

Any goaltender who can keep his GAA in the low to mid 2’s is giving his team a chance to win most every night. Even in stretches when Andrew Raycroft was struggling, his GAA was still under 3.00, which you’d think would be enough for a team averaging 3.21 goals per game (6th in the league).

This also helps explain why Ryan Miller is so highly regarded, despite his solid but unspectacular 2.70 GAA (his 0.912 SV% is a better indication of his worth). Raycroft, unlike Miller, has achieved his stats by being spectacular one night and as porous as swiss cheese the next. Miller rarely steals games but he is steady and makes big saves when his team needs him most.

Las night’s win over the Rangers impressed me more because the Leafs won a one-goal game, and a game in which they scored only 2 goals, to boot. That type of performance is almost as important as the two points (not to mention denying the Rangers those points).

As the trade deadline steadily approaches, hockey fans around the globe, from the tiniest blogger to the best-known broadcaster, get more and more starved for trade rumours.  In my opinion the best rumour sites don’t merely trumpet rumours, they are selective about what they post and they offer insights and thoughts.

Hockey Leaks has posted a few new rumours, as well as some insights into each.  I take issue with the logic behind only one rumour: the Mats Sundin suggestion.

I agree that the best thing the Leafs could do with the remainder of their season would be to trade off tradeable  assets such as Darcy Tucker while their value is high.  The team JFJ has assembled has little chance to make the playoffs and less, much less, of surviving the first round.  All however does not have to be lost.

Ferguson has done a credible job of thinking long-term, though he’s not taking the generally accepted approach of mostly building from within.  Pavel Kubina was signed for four years; Andrew Raycroft and Hal Gill for three.  McCabe and Kaberle are locked up for five.  This means that even if the Leafs started a garage sale tomorrow, a significant chunk of their roster would return for next season.

Tucker is an unrestricted free agent next season!  If he’s serious about his commitment to Toronto, he’ll have no problem returning after a short stint with another team.  A stint that will include a vastly increased chance at a Stanley Cup and that will include coming back next year to a Maple Leaf roster bolstered by a prospect or high draft pick.

Mats Sundin at first glance seems to fall into the same category but dig a little deeper and a stumbling block appears: with Mats Sundin goes a 1 contract option held by the team.  Trade Sundin and the team who acquires him also acquires the rights to that option year.

This makes trading Sundin difficult for two reasons.  First, you have little to no chance of re-acquiring him in the off-season (who is going to essentially buy out Mats Sundin?)  Secondly, trading Sundin requires a partner willing to commit to Mats beyond the last few weeks of this season.  It’s a year long commitment.  That means the Leafs must demand more and it means potential suitors require a significant chunk of space under next year’s salary cap.

If the Leafs want to make a significant impact on their roster for next season, there are three possible routes.  The first is expensive free agents, a tactic attempted this year to (so far) disappointing (at best) results.  The second is to tank so badly they acquire a top (no higher than 5th, preferably 1st) pick who is so good he can step in immediately and change the face of the team.  There ain’t no Crosby’s in next year’s draft, folks.

The third to is to trade not for picks and prospects but for players who can have big impacts next year.  This is arguably the most difficult because such players are rarely available and never cheap (unless they are UFA’s, in which case the team currently holding their rights will be rebuilding and only interested in picks or prospects, which the Leafs sorely need more of, not fewer).

Immediate impact seems both difficult and unlikely.  However, it is likely what we are to see Ferguson pursue.  Ferguson needs his blueline to offer the stability its $ value demands of it and he needs better goaltending.  If he doesn’t get those two things, he’ll likely be out of a job and the Leafs will be destined to miss the playoffs not only this year, but for several more to come.

Such is the danger of Ferguson’s long term planning.

Leafs-Bruins Post Game

Unfortunately, I was unable to watch the game last night, so my comments will be pretty general. But there are a few things that are immediately obvious just based on the score.

First off, I’ll get it out of the way by pointing out that yes, the Leafs can score 10 goals in a game. The supposed lack of offense that is expected to doom them this year is hard to credit after last night. Of course, before the last two games against the Bruins, the Leafs managed only 4 goals in the previous 4 contests against Tim Thomas and Co. Where was the offense then?

What we’re seeing right now is two things. First, we’re seeing a minor upsurge generated from third and fourth line players both fighting for their jobs and trying to make the best of their chances while the regulars are out with injuries. If Boyd Devereux wants to play in the NHL, he has to prove that he’s better than someone, because Kyle Wellwood, Nikolai Antropov, Alexei Ponikarovsky and (eventually) Mike Peca will all be returning to the lineup sooner or later. We’re also seeing the increased ice-time for the fourth line, including callup Kris Newberry, as well as youngsters Alex Steen and Matt Stajan pay off. The question of course is how long this can/will last, which brings us to the second point.

The Leafs are relying more on their young talent this year than anytime in recent memory. The injuries have only aggravated this fact. The thing about young players is that they’re more of an unknown quantity than veterans. They’re certainly more likely to have hot and cold flashes. Steen entered the game with 4 goals on the year and nearly doubled that total in one game. [NB: I suggested a few weeks ago the Leafs should pair up Mats Sundin and Steen in an effort to get the youngster going. Called it!] The point is that the more the Leafs rely on their young players, the more ups and downs we can all expect to see. This is not a bad thing because those young players need to learn now what it takes to win and to lose so that tomorrow, when they’re the backbone of the team and not the extras, they can be better than a 0.500 hockey club.

Paul Maurice’s job now is to do his best to keep his team riding their highs and shake them out of their lows as much as possible. He’ll have a very difficult time making the playoffs this year until (unless?) the defence settles down and starts earning its pay. The team will get through offensive slumps if Bryan McCabe, Pavel Kubina and the rest start looking like one of the highest paid bluelines in the league. [NB: Maurice finally split up McCabe and Kaberle, and look at the results. Called it!]