NHL analysis

Major Additions: Brad Lukowich, Michel Ouellet

Major Subtractions: Luke Richardson, Eric Healey, Ruslan Fedotenko, Cory Sarich, Eric Perrin

Analysis

If any team is proof that the salary cap has risen beyond reason, it is the Tampa Bay Lightning. A team that features Vincent Lecavalier, Martin St. Louis, Brad Richards and Dan Boyle, but has been knowingly thin behind those four and all but desperate for a starting goaltender cannot be sitting at nearly $8 million below the salary cap if they expect to compete for the Stanley Cup.

I can accept that there really weren’t any quality starting goaltenders available on the free agent market this summer but there are several available for trades at bargain prices (Martin Gerber might be worth a shot and Ottawa should be getting desperate to part with him as their negotiations with Danny Heatley and Jason Spezza heat up).

So if $42-ish million is the self imposed cap for the Lightning, what can they do to improve? Brad Richards is immovable. Lecavalier, St. Louis and Boyle are the heart and soul of the team. In other words, Tampa will ice a team that for all intents and purposes is identical to the squad bounced pretty darned quickly from the playoffs a year ago.

Tampa will remain competitive but unless their goaltending improves drastically they’ll be hard pressed to even make the playoffs. Marc Denis will get another chance and aught to do better than last year, though that’s far from guaranteed to happen. They will likely stand pat until they see how their goaltending stands up. If they appear to be on the outside of the playoff picture, Dan Boyle will command plenty of attention on the trade market. If they are a bubble team (likely) they’ll like just stay the course. Vaclav Prospal is the only significant forward on the roster who’s looking at unrestricted free agency next summer, so the team can afford to be patient for at least another year.

So what does this mean? It likely means that Tampa Bay fans will have more fun watching Vinny this year than hoping for playoff success, but it also means there’s good times ahead. If the cap - and I mean Tampa’s self-imposed cap, not the NHL salary cap - increases, there is ample room to add a top pairing defenceman and a veteran goaltender. And that would be a team to watch out for.

Key players for Tampa Bay: Johan Holmqvist, Vincent Lecavalier, Brad Richards, Martin St. Louis

Key players for New Jersey: Martin Brodeur, Brian Rafalski, Patrik Elias

Analysis: Martin Brodeur will match up more than nicely against the big Tampa forwards, and while New Jersey lacks depth, they make Tampa look like a puddle.

Tampa will need to vastly improve its play on the road or this series will be all but over before they even set foot in their home rink.  More than anything, they need Richards to step up his play.  As good as the tandem of Lecavalier and St. Louis are, Richards is the one making $7.8 million and needs to return to the play that saw him crowned playoff MVP a few years ago.

The poor management of Tampa Bay’s goaltenders will prove the final blow in the coffin.  How can anyone in Tampa Bay show any confidence in Holmqvist or Marc Denis?

Prediction: New Jersey in four

From John Kreiser’s excellent By the Numbers column today:

24 – Tamps Bay’s rank in goals allowed, the poorest of the 16 playoff teams — the other 15 were ranked 1-15 in goals allowed.

If that doesn’t prove you need to build your team from the goal crease out, I’m not sure what does.

For those itching for any and every write up on the playoff races, here are a few sites to keep an eye on (some of which I’ve mentioned before):

Hockey Rodent and his BerthWatch.

HockeyAnalysis.com has a recent post on possible scenarios.

HockeyLeaks post on where things stand.

It’s worth noting that even with only a few days left in the regular season, there are as many as 3 open spots in the Eastern race. Neither the Lightning nor Rangers have definitively clinched their playoff spots, let alone their positions in the seedings, while even the Islanders are technically still in the race.

For all those (myself very much included) who complain about the scheduling format of the NHL, there are times when it is obvious the guys in charge got at least some parts of it sooooo right.

As of right this instant, it’s looking like the playoff race in the East is down to two teams - Toronto and Montreal - fighting for the 8th spot.  The Hurricanes and Islanders are all but finished while the Rangers and Lightning have all but clinched their spots.  Carolina and Long Island sit 4 points out of 8th with 4 games each left to play, and they would have to jump over both Toronto and Montreal to get in.

Once you’re convinced that it’s more or less a two horse race, take a peak at the schedule.  Look ahead about one week, to April the 7th.  What’s that?  Montreal in Toronto?  Damn straight!

I’m already looking forward to next Saturday night.

John Romano, SPTimes.com:

Oh, the Lightning may yet make the playoffs. John Tortorella made a point of guaranteeing it Tuesday night, in apparent hope his players were eavesdropping.

But, understand, it is hard to see how this season ends happily. Or even pleasantly.

The Lightning are in the same position as they were a year ago despite a goaltending change and despite their formidable quartet of Vincent Lecavalier, Brad Richards, Martin St. Louis and Dan Boyle all having vastly better seasons than a year ago.

It’s difficult to see how this franchise can improve without moving one of their big three forwards.  Can we expect any more out of Lecavalier, Richards and St. Louis than we’ve seen this year?

The Lightning need one of two things to happen: either they have to move one of the above players for added depth throughout their lineup (St. Louis would make the most sense, but Lecavalier would both free up more space and bring a better return, while Richard’s $7.8 million per year is likely unmovable at this time) or they need a rookie or otherwise dirt-cheap goaltender to become a show-stopper overnight.

Imagine what this team could do with an extra $8 million a year to spend on a goaltender and a defenceman to help out Boyle.  The Lightning are a perfect example, a warning sign to NHL teams throughout the league, that sometimes you just have to walk away.

I know why they signed Richards to that ridiculous deal - it was overpay for their playoff MVP or watch him sign with a rival.  Still, it’s become obvious that Richards could be replaced by someone making substantially less than $8 million with little dropoff.  And that contract, more than anything, is what’s truly holding this team back.

It’s tough to even blame Richards.  I mean, honestly, how many players can live up to the expectations that come along with that kind of salary?

Here’s a look at the Eastern Conference race for the final three playoff spots, in order of least likely to most likely to make the playoffs (ordered by using my Predicted Final Standings as of March 20, 2007):

Boston is all but finished.  They sit with 73 points, 11 games left, with by far the toughest schedule of any of the teams fighting for a spot.  The weakest team that Boston plays is Montreal (three times in fact).  The best Boston can hope for is to play spoiler (two wins against Montreal would help the teams above them quite a bit).

Florida is further out but has a very slightly higher chance.  They have 73 points but only 10 games to play.  They get the bonus of playing Philadelphia and Washington, as well as Atlanta, Tampa Bay (twice) and Carolina (twice).  Given their strong play since the trade deadline, Florida remains a long shot but not out of the question.

Montreal is tied with two teams at 78 points, but they’ve played one game more than Toronto and two more than the Islanders.  They’ve been in a tailspin since December that only got worse when their starting goaltender was injured.  Three games against Boston is Montreal’s only remaining hope - anything less than a full sweep of those games would all but eliminate the Habs all on their own.  Montreal also has two remaining games against the Rangers and close the season in Toronto, so even if Montreal isn’t in the playoffs they will have a huge say in who is.

New York Islanders face a goaltending dilemma as long as Rick DiPietro is injured.  The good news is that he looks set to return.  The bad news is in his absence the Islanders went from being solidly in the playoffs to fighting for their lives.  Their schedule difficulty ranks in the middle of the pack, easier than Tampa Bay, Toronto and Boston but harder than Florida, Montreal, Carolina or the Rangers.  Ryan Smyth has had more of an impact on the Oilers (no victories since he left) than on the Islanders since the deadline.

Toronto has struggled in games they ’should’ win and done better than expected in games they should have trouble with.  With a schedule more difficult than any team in this race except for the Bruins, the Leafs are likely to fall short.  In another week this should be decided - two games against Buffalo and one against New Jersey don’t leave much room for error.  The games that follow against Carlina, the Islanders and Montreal will only be important if they don’t drop out of the picture before they get there.

Tampa Bay should be solidly in the playoffs but they are not.  How much longer will the Lightning stand behind Tortorella’s “encouragement” tactics of his goaltenders?  Tampa has a pretty tough schedule but they have the largest margin for error, leading this pack of players and even within striking distance of third by catching Atlanta (not likely given the Thrashers’ play since the trade deadline).

New York Rangers have been the only solid team in this race over recent games, due almost exclusively to the play of Henrik Lundqvist.  If that trend continues the Rangers will easily slip into the playoffs, possibly as high as 6th place.  If Lundqvist stumbles, even having (by far) the easiest remaining schedule in this race won’t save the team.  The best team the Rangers have left to play are the Penguins.  Their numerous games against teams in the race include the Islanders (twice), Montreal (twice) and Leafs.  That many “4 point” games could swing things in almost any direction.

Carolina has goaltending issues, though not the issues I long predicted.  Cam Ward has been solid enough but now he’s hurt.  Carolina’s remaining schedule is easier than anyone’s but the Rangers here and they sit in a playoff spot - barely - right now.  The Canes need other teams to stumble but that seems almost certain to happen.  Two games against Tampa Bay will be key.

Additions: Andy Delmore, Marc Denis, Doug Janik, Filip Kuba, Luke Richardson

Subtractions: John Grahame, Pavel Kubina, Fredrik Modin, Darryl Sydor, Shane Willis

Analysis

Hands up who was surprised when Brad Richards received a $7.8 million per year for 5 years deal earlier this season. Ok, everyone. Moving on.

Whether Richards deserves that kind of money or not (short version: no way, but Tampa Bay was given an ugly choice - give him that kind of money or lose him for nothing when he hit free agency), in a salary cap era, tying up just a hair short of $20 million on three players is bound to cause trouble. Locking up the trio of Richards, Lecavalier and St. Louis certainly has its benefits, but it has come at the cost of depth. Beyond those three, the Lightning now have almost no one left on their forward lines. Prospal is easily the next best forward and a real bargain ($1.9 million per year for two more years and 80 points last year - now that’s smart). Modin was a solid 20 goal scorer who was dealt both to solidify the Lightning in goal and also to free up some salary (although giving the experienced but unproven Mark Denis almost $3 million per year may not turn out as well as the Lightning hope). Compare this to the Carolina Hurricanes, who even after giving significant raises to Eric Staal, Eric Cole and Justin Williams have not a single player making more than $4.5 million.

On defence, the problem is just as severe. Kubina and Sydor are gone and have been replaced by the much cheaper, but much less effective, Kuba and Richardson. Richardson is probably the best bargain on Tampa’s blueline this year, providing stability and leadership, but he’s a short term solution at best and no longer has the ability to anchor a blueline. Kuba was a solid addition but is no Kubina.

Tampa Bay still touts the formidable trio of Richards, Lecavalier and St. Louis and those three, should they have strong seasons next year, can be expected to almost single handedly drag their team into the playoffs. Unfortunately, the lack of depth behind those players will likely keep them just short of that coveted playoff position, and will certainly stop them from an extended run. Considering that the moves they made were lateral at best, and considering how much better the teams around them got, I can’t see Tampa Bay making the playoffs next season. Toronto, Atlanta, Florida, NY Islanders and Boston, the five teams below the Lightning in the standings last season, all improved substantially. Lateral movement is not enough.