NHL analysis

Major Additions: Alexei Semenov

Major Subtractions: Scott Hannan, Vesa Toskala, Mark Bell

Analysis

One of the best teams in the league got better mostly by subtraction this summer, shedding some unnecessary/wasteful pieces and preparing to lock up others.

Vesa Toskala’s value would never have been higher - as an impending UFA he would be of interest only to other contending teams, whom the Sharks would prefer not to strengthen heading into the playoffs. Mark Bell was proving to be an expensive mistake, and one who has since been sentenced to jail time (albeit a sentence that will not impact his playing time in Toronto).

In shedding these two players salary (Bell makes over $2 million per year, Toskala was already well on his way to the $4 million per year new salary Toronto has already granted him), San Jose paves the way to re-signing captain Patrick Marleau sometime over the next 8 months. Even if they choose a different path, or even if Marleau chooses to test free agency, the cap room will be essential in signing RFA’s like Joe Pavelski, Ryan Clowe, Matt Carle and more. For a team so close to the Stanley Cup these past few seasons, the Sharks are as rich as any other of young talent.

The Sharks are just run oh so well. It makes me jealous. They field a solid, exciting, competitive team while turning excess pieces into draft picks and prospects to ensure they remain competitive long after their current core players are gone. They look poised to make another deep playoff run, and while they lost their top defenceman in Hannan to free agency, the majority of their blueline will return a little older and more experienced. Craig Rivet also returns and will anchor the blue

Here are things I’ve noticed about each of the remaining 8 teams:

Buffalo Sabres: Strong, fast, deep, talented - but not very tough.  The Sabres don’t have a particularly gritty team, and the insertion of Tim Connolly onto the fourth line (while obviously the right decision) has only added to that.  I just can’t see the Sabres lasting against a team like San Jose or Anaheim if they were to make the finals.  That being said, I wouldn’t want to be the team to face them or tell them that.

New York Rangers: Just not good enough to beat the Sabre (not that anyone is surprised).  While Henrik Lundqvist has been excellent, and Jaromir Jagr looks like he’s out to prove something, the defence and the second, third and fourth lines simply lack the skill to skate with their opponents.  This is not to say that the Rangers can’t win.  But they’ll have to be very, very patient if they wish to do so.

New Jersey Devils: The Devils are a team that just wins.  Of course it starts with Brodeur, but it continues with everyone from Scott Gomez (10 assists so far in the playoffs) on down.  That being said, they needed overtime to salvage a slit of their opening two home games against the Senators.  As long as Ray Emery can continue to remain within spitting distance of Brodeur’s play, the Devils will be hard pressed to lengthen this series, let alone win it.

Ottawa Senators: So far, the Sens look determined to break their reputation as playoff chokers.  For how long?  They may still fall apart, but it won’t be happening anytime soon.  They still could have used Gary Roberts, but maybe, just maybe, they’ll make do without him.  If I didn’t know any better I’d swear Mike Comrie was playing for a new contract…

Detroit Red Wings: Very nearly went down 2-0 heading to San Jose.  Detroit may just have their hands full with a bigger, faster, strong Sharks team.  The good news is Pavel Datsyuk is playing up to his new contract, Hasek remains one of the best, and the Wings got past the first round.

San Jose Sharks: My current pick for “team to beat” remaining in the playoffs.  The Sharks forwards are so big, so tough, so mean, and so all around goooood it’s almost scary.  Craig Rivet was worth the first round pick the Sharks gave up after all.  And maybe the Sharks should be moving Toskala instead of Nabokov.

Anaheim Ducks: The third and fourth liners are hardly playing.  That’s both the best and worst thing the Ducks could hope for here.  The Ducks have some of the best players in the league on their top two lines and defence pairs, but the rest of their line up is somewhat weaker than that of their opponents.  In long games and long series’, that is potentially worrisome.  Do they have the stamina if they’re only playing half their roster?

Vancouver Canucks: Managed to split the games in Anaheim (which I didn’t think they would) but then dropped game three in Vancouver.  They certainly can’t afford to drop game four, and I’m not sure winning it would be enough, either.  However, I have to give the team credit - how different would the situation be if they hadn’t suffered the injuries to their blueline?

Key players for San Jose: Evgeny Nabokov, Joe Thornton, Jonathan Cheechoo

Key players for Detroit: Dominik Hasek, Todd Bertuzzi, Nicklas Lidstrom

Analysis: I watched most of the San Jose - Nashville series, and I can hardly believe how good the Sharks are.  Their forwards are so big, so strong, so relentless, they just wear down your defencemen until there’s nothing left.  Nashville wasn’t able to get anything going and by the time they rolled into games three and four their blueliners were looking over their shoulders after every play.  Now, they didn’t have to deal with a Norris winner like Lidstrom but Nashville did have a solid, deep blueline.

Detroit’s forwards will have to carry the play because San Jose’s weakest point is most definitely its blueline.  Nabokov is playing with passion and will be tough to beat.  If the Sharks get their power play going, this series could be over almost before it starts.

The good news for Detroit fans is that their team has gotten past the first series hump and Pavel Datsyuk scored more in the first 6 games of the playoffs than in about the previous 25 games.  Look to Detroit to stretch out the series, but the longer it goes, the more the tide will swing in San Jose’s favour.  The Sharks are now my current favourite for the Stanley Cup.

Prediction: San Jose in 6

Key players for San Jose: Patrick Marleau, Evgeny Nabokov, Joe Thornton

Key players for Nashville: Kimmo Timonen, Tomas Vokoun, Paul Kariya

Analysis: Best matchup in the first round.  This series will be epic.

I listed each team’s expected starting goaltender and not their very capable backups because I feel that if either of those two falters, it will be too late for his team to recover.  A fast start will be very important to this series because both are so good, so well put together.  A couple points to consider:

Joe Thornton put together a second straight 90 assist season but his career playoff stats are not flattering: 8 goals, 19 assists for 27 points in 46 games.  Not good enough.

2nd place power play (San Jose) against 3rd ranked penalty kill.

Virtually identical goal differentials.

This will be a close one.  And a fun one to watch.

Prediction: Nashville in seven

Here are tonight’s picks:

Evgeni Nabokov was yanked again last night.  The Sharks have him locked up for three more years (at a hefty $5.375 million), and you have to believe they’d like to ride Vesa Toskala, who has not failed to finish a game this year.  However, benching Nabokov would mean breaking the one game a piece rotation the Sharks have used for the entire season, and the Sharks surely don’t want to give the message they’ve lost confidence in Nabokov just as they’re trying to trade him.

Vesa Toskala is a more intriguing case.  Making a paltry $1.375 million and locked up through next season, as well.  Though in line for a raise after next year, he’s young enough to factor in to many team’s long and short term plans.  Toskala could fetch a much higher price, could be fit under almost every team’s salary cap, but… are you comfortable riding Nabokov through the playoffs?

I’ll make a prediction here and say that San Jose will not trade either of their goaltenders.  They don’t have to worry about losing either one to free agency this summer and they have no gaping holes to fill heading towards the trade deadline.  They have little need to dump salary (they are only close to the cap this year because of Vladimir Malakhov’s cap hit, which will be gone next year) and have a large number of promising young prospects both up front and on the blueline.  Furthermore, they have only four pending UFA’s, of whom only Scott Hannan can be truly considered difficult to replace.  The Sharks will need eventually to move one of their goaltenders, probably sometime next season before Toskala, Joe Thornton and Patrick Marleau all hit free agency at once.  But that time is not now.

Parts 1 through 5:
Atlantic - Crosby, Malkin, Staal
Northeast - Forward vs. Defence Salaries
Southeast - Stanley Cup Hangover
Central - Ten Years Too Late?
Northwest - Value or Cheap?

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Pacific - Best in the West?

While everyone concentrates on the most obvious strengths of the San Jose Sharks - two proven NHL goaltenders fighting for the starting role and a top line that somehow managed to improve on its absolutely dominating form from a year ago. But while Joe Thornton, Jonathan Cheechoo, Mark Bell, Evgeni Nabokov and Vesa Toskala fight it out over who should receive the most attention from the opposing team, the second line of Patrick Marleau, Steve Bernier and Milan Michalek - by far the best second line in the NHL - may quietly (relatively speaking) turn San Jose from serious contender to the team to beat in the Western Conference.

The big line of Thornton, Cheechoo and Bell are, in a word, unstoppable. But their opposition still has to try to slow them down, meaning those three can expect to spend most of their time playing against the best defenders in the league. And when your top two defencemen are tired out from playing against those three, who in the hell do you send out to face Marleau, Bernier and Michalek?

These three averaged about a point per game - each - during the pre-season. They would qualify as the top line on most teams in the NHL. And they are only going to get better as the year goes along. Bernier and Michalek are both young guys who have plenty of room to improve - and that’s a scary thought. And Marleau is still the captain anda bona-fide “go-to-guy,” even with big Joe in town.

San Jose has room to improve this year, just like everyone else. Someone - preferably Toskala, with his under-$1.5 million salary - has to step up, grab hold of the starter position and refuse to let go. Juggling goaltenders has its advantages, but the Sharks need the consistency and steadiness you get from having confidence in a definite starter. The blueline also needs to step up. Assuming they find the right deal, San Jose will deal one of their goaltenders as soon as possible to bring in defensive help. They have a young, inexperienced defence corps, and how deep their blueline proves will determine how deep into the playoffs they can go.

But with the scoring depth up front, brought about by the best 2nd line in the NHL, the Sharks are my pick for best in the west.

Well, Lou pulled a fast one today, shipping Malakhov to the San Jose Sharks for two very cheap players, though neither is likely to play for the Devils this season.

I, like everyone else I’m sure, am very interested to learn the conditions placed on the first round pick NJ surrendered to get the Sharks take on Malakhov’s $3.6 million salary for Fahey and Korolyuk.

Near as I can tell, this puts NJ about $5.5 million under the salary cap as things stand. This, however, is without the following players on their active roster: Paul Martin (unsigned), David Hale (unsigned), Richard Matvichuk (injured), Jason Wiemer (injured), Brian Gionta (unsigned). That is also assuming Lou successfuly gets Alexander Mogilny’s $3.5 million off the salary cap.

When Matvichuk and Wiemer return the Devils jump to within $3.1 million of the cap. That’s still not nearly enough to sign Gionta (48 goals last year), Martin and Hale. Something has to be still in the cards for the Devils to get their full roster on the ice, under the cap, and competing. And while I have the utmost respect for Lou’s GM’ing mojo, the regular season is 2 days away! Something has to be done and fast if New Jersey wants to compete out of the gate.

Additions: Curtis Brown, Mike Grier, Mark Bell, Patrick Traverse, Graham Mink, Mathieu Biron

Subtractions: Alyn McCauley, Scott Thornton, Tom Preissing, Josh Hennessy, Matt Carkner, Michael Vernace

Analysis

Last year the Sharks pulled a real fast one getting Joe Thornton out of Boston for three solid players from what turned out to be a surprisingly deep team. Thornton really deserved better than the treatment he was getting in Boston. He’s worth every penny of his $6.33 million per year contract and, even better, he meshed tightly with Jonathan Cheechoo, propelling the youngster to a 56 goal season and the Maurice Richard trophy. Ultimately, San Jose got the best player in the deal. They traded players who are readily available for a Superstar.

This season things get interesting for the Sharks. Cheechoo and Thornton get to play together for the whole year, and will likely be joined by newcomer Mark Bell. Bell is a big, strong, hard worker who managed 21 and 25 goals in his last two seasons playing for the dreadfully poor Chicago Blackhawks. If he fits in on the top line as well as is hoped, San Jose could easily boast the best line in the NHL next year.

Directly behind big Joe is Patrick Marleau, team captain and a very solid two way player. Marleau has scored at least 20 goals in all but two of his 8 NHL seasons and had a career high 86 points last year. On most NHL teams, he’d be the undisputed number one center. The good news there is that it’s tough to pay two #1 centers, especially in the era of the salary cap. It’s also difficult to find enough quality ice time to go around. And finally, it’s reaaally tough to find enough high-quality wingers for two guys making $10 million between them.

San Jose is also “burdened” with two quality goaltenders. The only burden they’re feeling is the weight of Evgeni Nabokov’s $5.375 million per season contract. Coupled with his sub-par season last year, that makes Nabokov very difficult to move. With Toskala outplaying Nabokov at a fraction of the price, Nabokov becomes dead weight that could stand in the way of acquiring a top two defenceman, for example.

The defence in San Jose is fairly inexperienced and lacks a true anchor. The Sharks could not afford to seriously puruse any of the top blueliners available this summer, and this will likely stop them from improving on their playoff success last year. They should however be one of the best teams in the regular season. If they can manage to wrest a solid blueliner in exchange for Nabokov (or even for Toskala if Nabokov can return to his pre-lockout form) they may well become the team to beat in the West. At the very least Dallas will have some serious competition on its hands for the division title.

Defence still wins championships and right now, San Jose doesn’t have it on the blueline. They do however have depth and several promising youngsters in the organization. If they can either pick up or develop a couple true top two defencemen before the contracts of their key guys like Thornton, Marleau, Cheechoo, Bell and others run out, San Jose should be set for a very serious Cup run.

They did help their grit and penalty kill by picking up Mike Grier from the Buffalo Sabers. Grier is the type of guy that makes any team better. Buffalo made a big mistake not keeping a valulable team leader and gritty third liner. But Buffalo’s loss is San Jose’s gain.