NHL analysis

Major Additions: Alex Auld (UFA), David Aebischer (UFA), Mike York (UFA)

Major Subtractions: Curtis Joseph (currently unsigned), Owan Nolan (signed with Calgary)

Analysis:

The Coyotes are a team that aught to have been better by now but still doesn’t look set to improve anytime soon. Despite year after year of finishing well out of the playoffs, the Coyotes have few prospects of note to show for it. They also seem to have trouble attracting unrestricted free agents despite Wayne Gretzky behind the bench. Perhaps the most notable change in Phoenix’s corner this summer is the change that occurred in the General Manager’s position. For the immediate future, however, that won’t likely change much. GM changes tend to take several seasons, at least, before changes on the ice become readily apparent.

All this adds up to another likely disappointing season in the desert. Curtis Joseph was exchanged for Auld and Aebischer (with Michael Tellqvist and David LeNevau both waiting in the wings), creating more of a crowd but no more stability or confidence. Nolan was a non-factor. Shane Doan is an excellent captain and team player but he’s not much of an elite talent to build around.

Perhaps most worrying of all, look at the Pacific division teams above the Coyotes: Los Angeles improved significantly, Dallas stood pat, San Jose is just as strong with extra cap room, and Anaheim is somewhere between treading water and slightly worsened, depending on whether Niedermayer and/or Selan

Here’s an early look at the top and bottom teams in the league thus far. I took the top and bottom teams by winning percentage (taking points divided by possible points) to account for the different number of games played). Here they are, starting with the:

Bottom Three (worst to best)
1. Phoenix Coyotes: 0.200, 1-4-0
The Phoenix Coyotes expected so much out of this season, but so far they are coming up worse than flat. With only a single win and two points in 5 games, the Coyotes are already working hard at digging themselves a hole. Rumours have unsurprisingly started swirling that the Desert Dogs are seeking depth in goal and are looking to move Mike Comrie in return. Don’t count out Curtis Joseph, however. Cujo proved last year he’s got at least a year or two left in him, and he’s mentally tough enought to bounce back from a tough start. I’ll bet he’s wishing he’d come back to Toronto however (did someone say déja vu?). With forwards like Shane Doan and Ladislav Nagy up front and the addition of Ed Jovanoski on the blueline, the Coyotes have to be expected to improve on their poor start. However, from what I’ve heard of Jovo-cop, his defensive liabilities are likely to continue rather than go away. That doesn’t bode well for the future of the Coyotes.

2. Nashville: 0.250, 1-3-0
Wow, these guys are sure surprising a lot of people, and not in a good way. Expected by many (myself included) to overtake Detroit for the division, take a serious run at the Conference title, and fight their way deep into the playoffs, the Predators are not having the start they wanted. Although obviously still very early, concern is already starting to creep in. Nashville will bounce back, and fast. Their core group, including Paul Kariya and Steve Sullivan, know that this year’s team may be their best chance to win a Stanley Cup. They won’t squander their chance without a fight.

3. Philadelphia Flyers: 0.300, 1-3-1
A tough team, but not looking so scary this far. When Peter Forsberg plays like the best player in the league, watch out. When he doesn’t, well then the Flyers look more like the too-slow goons that fell apart in the playoffs las season. Hatcher and Rat- woops, nevermind. The good news for Flyers fans has to be Joni Pitkanen, tied for second in the league with 5 points (all assists) in 5 games. Although his minus-4 rating is less encouraging. But the real trouble is in goal, with Robert Esche his usual inconsistent self and Antero Niitimaki playing through the pain and taking cortisone shots to avoid surgery. Love the guy playing through the pain but I’m not sold on this guy even when he’s healthy. The rumours are swirling about Bobby Clarke looking at Ilya Brygalov (getting yanked tonight won’t help Bryzgalov earn a starting job, whether in Anaheim, Philly or elsewhere). Clarke has denied that he’s looking for help in goal, but of course, with Clarke that virtually guarantees that he really is. If Niitymaki struggles Clarke may be forced to make a move, though he will undoubtedly not be happy with the almost certain asking price - of of the young Mike Richards or Jeff Carter being the most sought after.

Runner up:
- Boston Bruins (also 1-3-1): Tim Thomas and Hannu Toivonen have struggled. Marc Savard has struggled. Zdeno Chara has been unable to turn around a porous blueline. The early signs are not good, especially with the other division teams being so strong.

Additions: Nick Boynton, Ed Jovanoski, Georges Laraque, Mike Morrison, Jeremy Roenick, Travis Roche, Owen Nolan, Mike Zigomanis

Subtractions: Paul Mara, Mike Johnson, Geoff Sanderson

Analysis

Phoenix was quite active during the summer, which I for one actually found quite surprising. The Coyotes actually did fairly well early in the season before Ladislav Nagy was injured and the betting scandal enveloped their head coach. I honestly thought they would be content to tinker a little and continue steadily improving their team.

That being said, they were pretty far out of the playoffs and there are no guarrantees similar injuries won’t crop up again. Nagy has never played a full 82 game season and has only played more than 55 games twice (probably what contributed to his rather small arbitration settlement, given that he had 56 points in only 51 games last year). His production per game extrapolates to 90 points, good enough for thirteenth place tie last season. This year he, Comrie and Shane Doan will be counted upon to improve yet again and assert themselves as a true top line.

They’ll thankfully have plenty more depth behind them for a change, as well. The second line will feature Jeremy Roenick, coming off a dreadful 22 point season, and Owen Nolan, who hasn’t played since 2004. Those two are pretty well guarranteed to have better seasons, but just how good remains to be seen. Still, if Roenick can keep true to his word and stay focused on hockey, he should still have plenty left to show the hockey world. And the fact is that he is still a very capable hockey player. Even better, he has plenty to prove to himself and to the NHL. Never underestimate the desire for players like Roenick to prove themselves (see Teemu Selanne last year).

On defence, the addition of Ed Jovanoski changes the blueline quite a bit. Jovo-cop will run the power play and receive plenty of minutes - but is he really worth his $6.5 million a year? I’ve heard both yes and no to that question from sources who watched him play night in and out in Vancouver. From what I’ve heard and what I’ve seen, I would say that he’s a very capable offensive defenceman who still has repeated and unfortunate defensive lapses. To me, that’s unnaceptable for a $6.5 million defenceman (I would give the same argument for Bryan McCabe’s huge salary, and McCabe managed just under a point per game and played nearly the entire season. Jovo managed 33 points and only played in 44 games). Even so, the blueline has to be considered better with his addition. Luckily he’s playing in front of Curtis Joseph, one of the best “desperation” goalies in the NHL.

Bringing Cujo back before he hit free agency was smart. The Leafs, desperate for a starter, would have snapped him up in a heartbeat. Cujo may not be a top-tier goaltender anymore, and he isn’t getting any younger, but he’s still very good at stopping pucks.

Pheonix last year finished 14 points and 4 spots out of the playoffs. They play in a very tough division (I certainly wouldn’t want to play Dallas, San Jose and Anaheim 8 times each) and will have a tough road to the playoffs. But they have as good a shot as can be expected. It will all come down to how their new additions, particularly Jovanoski, play. If Jovo, Roenick and Nolan prove worth their salt, Phoenix will seriously challenge for one of the bottom 2 or 3 playoff spots.