NHL analysis

Major Additions: Daniel Briere, Scott Hartnell, Kimmo Timmonen, Joffrey Lupul, Jason Smith

Major Subtractions: Todd Fedoruk, Mike York, Geoff Sanderson, Joni Pitkanen

Analysis

Wow! Talk about big changes over the off-season. Will it mean big changes in the standings?

I’m not quite convinced just yet. While I greatly respect many of the changes the Flyers made, such a large influx of players often results in an adjustment period that can yield… disappointing results in the short term.

Are the Flyers a better team than they were a few months ago? Of course! But the improvements on paper won’t necessarily result in immediate improvements on the ice. Case in point: Daniel Briere. He bounced around the league for years before becoming an offensive powerhouse in Buffalo. Obviously the changed rules helped a small, fast player like him, but what about the premiere offensive talents he got to play with. Can Briere be reasonably expected to repeat his recent success without the likes of Johan Hecht, Maxim Afinogenov and Chris Drury in supporting roles?

The one area the Flyers can be expected to improve immediately and drastically is in goal. Martin Biron is an instant upgrade and has really deserved a better shot at an undisputed #1 position than he ever received in Buffalo. That change alone should rocket the Flyers at least into playoff contention.

Unless the new additions gel almost immediately, the Flyers will struggle to make the playoffs once again. They missed the playoffs a year ago by a whopping 32 points and few teams above them got substantially worse. But they certainly won’t be the pushover they were last season, and substantial improvement in their young players could easily catapult them from bubble team to challenging for the division title (though I wouldn’t count on it).

Paul Holmgren has been signed to a 2-year contract extension that will see him as the Flyers’ General Manager for another two years.
A well deserved extension, and one that surprises no one.  The long term decision may be based on how quickly the team can start winning again.  The city of Philadelphia isn’t used to the basement of the standings and will be looking for a quick turnaround.

Here’s an early look at the top and bottom teams in the league thus far. I took the top and bottom teams by winning percentage (taking points divided by possible points) to account for the different number of games played). Here they are, starting with the:

Bottom Three (worst to best)
1. Phoenix Coyotes: 0.200, 1-4-0
The Phoenix Coyotes expected so much out of this season, but so far they are coming up worse than flat. With only a single win and two points in 5 games, the Coyotes are already working hard at digging themselves a hole. Rumours have unsurprisingly started swirling that the Desert Dogs are seeking depth in goal and are looking to move Mike Comrie in return. Don’t count out Curtis Joseph, however. Cujo proved last year he’s got at least a year or two left in him, and he’s mentally tough enought to bounce back from a tough start. I’ll bet he’s wishing he’d come back to Toronto however (did someone say déja vu?). With forwards like Shane Doan and Ladislav Nagy up front and the addition of Ed Jovanoski on the blueline, the Coyotes have to be expected to improve on their poor start. However, from what I’ve heard of Jovo-cop, his defensive liabilities are likely to continue rather than go away. That doesn’t bode well for the future of the Coyotes.

2. Nashville: 0.250, 1-3-0
Wow, these guys are sure surprising a lot of people, and not in a good way. Expected by many (myself included) to overtake Detroit for the division, take a serious run at the Conference title, and fight their way deep into the playoffs, the Predators are not having the start they wanted. Although obviously still very early, concern is already starting to creep in. Nashville will bounce back, and fast. Their core group, including Paul Kariya and Steve Sullivan, know that this year’s team may be their best chance to win a Stanley Cup. They won’t squander their chance without a fight.

3. Philadelphia Flyers: 0.300, 1-3-1
A tough team, but not looking so scary this far. When Peter Forsberg plays like the best player in the league, watch out. When he doesn’t, well then the Flyers look more like the too-slow goons that fell apart in the playoffs las season. Hatcher and Rat- woops, nevermind. The good news for Flyers fans has to be Joni Pitkanen, tied for second in the league with 5 points (all assists) in 5 games. Although his minus-4 rating is less encouraging. But the real trouble is in goal, with Robert Esche his usual inconsistent self and Antero Niitimaki playing through the pain and taking cortisone shots to avoid surgery. Love the guy playing through the pain but I’m not sold on this guy even when he’s healthy. The rumours are swirling about Bobby Clarke looking at Ilya Brygalov (getting yanked tonight won’t help Bryzgalov earn a starting job, whether in Anaheim, Philly or elsewhere). Clarke has denied that he’s looking for help in goal, but of course, with Clarke that virtually guarantees that he really is. If Niitymaki struggles Clarke may be forced to make a move, though he will undoubtedly not be happy with the almost certain asking price - of of the young Mike Richards or Jeff Carter being the most sought after.

Runner up:
- Boston Bruins (also 1-3-1): Tim Thomas and Hannu Toivonen have struggled. Marc Savard has struggled. Zdeno Chara has been unable to turn around a porous blueline. The early signs are not good, especially with the other division teams being so strong.

Well, the dust is starting to settle on Bob Clarke, GM of the Philadelphia Flyers, decision to sign Vancouver Canucks restricted free agent and budding young forward Ryan Kesler to a $1.9 million offer sheet. For those who don’t know, the last time an offer sheet was used was nearly a decade ago when the Columbus Blue Jackets tried to steal Sergei Federov away from the Detroit Red Wings by offering him a very lucrative contract. Detroit matched, but resentment lingered - some would say continues to linger - between General Managers who feel forced into the difficult choice between dishing out the dollars and watching a young prospect depart for little return.

In Vancouver’s case, they are now paying Kesler $1.9 million, approximately double what Vancouver is thought to have offered before the offer sheet was put on the table. For a team still looking to add depth, particularly on the wing, the extra million dollars could have and would have been spent elsewhere gladly. But the other option, watching Kesler depart for a mere second round draft pick, was hardly any better.

There are numerous reasons why offer sheets are so rare. One is that Clarke now gets to carry the distinction of being the only GM in recent memory to use one, an ugly little smear other GM’s, particularly Nonis in Vancouver, are certain to remember if and when Clarke is looking to deal in the future. There are only 30 GM’s (no, Mr. Wang does not count, no matter how much of the job he decides to take on) and only so many places to go looking for that missing piece to complete your team. It never helps to piss off your working partners.

A second reason is that the salary cap exists for all teams. Next year it could be Clarke who is squeezed close to the cap with restricted free agents to tie up. If Antero Niittymaki steps up this year, he’ll be in line for a substantial raise and could garner attention from around the league. Same goes for Joni Pitkanen, possibly the best all around defenceman on the team last year - certainly the most consistent - at the young age of 22 and the bargain price tag of $2 million. And the next summer will be no better for Clarke, with Umberger, Carter and Richards all becoming RFA’s.

Offer sheets are very interesting now that the salary cap is in place but will likely not be used any more often than we’ve seen this summer. Many teams in the league could offer Brian Gionta or Paul Martin contracts that the New Jersey Devils literally could not afford to match, yet not one team has done so. The GM’s are smart enough to realize that the short term gain of “stealing” one player won’t mean much when they lose their jobs because no one will trade with them down the road. And no one wants to sweat that their budding young star will be the recipient of an offer sheet when they have cap issues of their own.

Additions: Nolan Baumgartner, Matt Cullen, Jonnson, Murray, Randy Robitaille, Corse, Geoff Sanderson, Kyle Calder

Subtractions: Kim Johnsson, Radivojevic, Donald Brashear, Michael Handzus

Analysis

As soon as the Flyers grabbed Forseberg last summer, I made the prediction that if they got solid goaltending, they would be THE team to beat. Well, I was right about goaltending being one issue. I, like many people, missed how important foot speed - or lack thereof - in the NHL last year.

This year, I think Philadelphia is more likely to miss the playoffs than compete for first round home ice advantage. They have two first line centers who combined for 69 games last year. Primeau is a very long shot to play next year. Too bad for him and for the Flyers. Clarke’s sigh of relief upon hearing Forseberg is not expected to require surgery on his second foot and should be ready for the start of the season could be heard halfway around the globe. Can he stay healthy?

Up front the Flyers got better by mostly sticking with what they had. Richards and Carter should improve on excellent seasons last year and will be given more ice time and responsability, helped by the trading of fan-favourite Handzus in return for big winger Kyle Calder. Gagne and Knuble need to repeat their performances, even if… no, especially if Forsberg goes down.

The defence is less improved. Last year the Flyers defence was too slow for the new speed of the NHL. Small, quick teams like Buffalo and Montreal gave the previous scary guys like Hatcher and Gauthier. Injuries didn’t help last year, and losing Kim Johnsson to free agency will hurt even more this season. And that spells bad news for the goaltending, which was also barely passable last year.

Niittymaki and Esche were both brilliant at times last year, and frighteningly porous at others. Neither one was or is good enough to really grab and hold that number one spot. Without the stability that provides, and with a defence corps mostly too slow to recover from mistakes against quick opponents (2-4-2 against previously mentioned Buffalo and Montreal last year alone), it is difficult to get enough wins to stay ahead of the pack.

The future does look bright for the Flyers, but too many big question marks remain for the Flyers to be taken seriously next season. Primeau, Hatcher and Forsberg combined make up about $12.5 million against the cap next year. Hatcher in particular needs to figure out a way to be worth his $3.5 million in the new NHL. Forsberg just has to stay healthy (when he does he is possibly the most explosive player in the NHL and easily worth his $5.75 million). It’s tough to fill that void when he goes down.

Last year the Flyers were solidly in the playoffs. This year, if they make it, they’ll be near the bottom and it will be a dogfight to stay in.