NHL analysis

Soon to be UFA Gary Roberts has been named quite often in trade rumours of late. As a Leafs’ fan, I saw plenty of this warrior and can definitely see the appeal he holds, especially as the playoffs draw near.

The Ottawa Sun reports that the Leafs and Senators are two teams that are among the most interested.

Roberts, 40, has battled injuries this year, but he’s back in the Florida lineup and has posted good numbers.

The reason the Senators like Roberts so much is because of the role he’s played against them in past playoff matchups when he was a member of the Leafs.

Roberts is a risk but less so than Peter Forsberg. He’d also be much cheaper. Though he can’t be expected to show the form he showed in the Leafs-Sens matchups of the pre-lockout NHL, the leadership and grit he would add to any team can’t be ignored.

Were it not for the possibility of Ottawa nabbing him, I can’t see JFJ making a serious bid for the winger. Business is business, but you’ve got to think there’s some leftover resentment from the contract dispute that led to Roberts’ (along with Joe Nieuwendyk ’s) defection to the Panthers in the first place.

That being said, I think Ferguson would roll out the welcome mat rather than see Roberts line up against the Leafs in a potential Sens-Leafs playoff round.

For the Sens, Roberts is just the kind of player the Sens have long been criticized for lacking.

From Bruce Garrioch, Ottawa Sun:

The Senators coach is in the unusual situation of working in the final year of his contract and he faced more questions about the contract issue at yesterday’s daily media gathering following a workout at Scotiabank Place.

With only 28 games left in the regular season, there have been no contract talks between GM John Muckler and Murray.

And there may be no talks until the club judges its playoff performance this spring.

Really this is just want you’d expect.  While Bryan Murray has continuously led the Senators to finishes at or near the top of the conference, he has not shown the same success in the playoffs.  Last year’s semi-public semi-dispute over Dominic Hasek (Murray and Muckler reportedly disagreed over re-signing Hasek, and voiced their opinions after the Senators were ousted from the playoffs).

I’d have to expect that if the Senators don’t make at least the Conference finals, Murray will be on his way out.  Whether it’s his fault or not - he can only work with the team Muckler puts on the ice - will be irrelevant.  Someone’s got to take the fall and the coach is by far the most likely.

Imagine what Murray could do with someone like Mike Grier or Mike Peca on his lineup come the first round of the playoffs.  Maybe Muckler is the one who needs to go.

One of the most disapointing teams to start this season has most definitely been the Ottawa Senators. Currently on pace for about a 70 point season - enough for a bottom-10 finish in the NHL and certainly dead last in their division - the Senators have been unable to get anything rolling.

But recently, they’ve started to turn things around. Two wins over the high-flying Buffalo Sabres, solid goaltending, and their first really solid 60 minute efforts all year long have things looking up for the woeful Senators.

While I’m not pleased about it, I for one am convinced they’re about ready for a solid run. They’ve finally admitted that for now at least, Martin Gerber is a bust, and in front of Ray Emery the Senators have shown signs of life.

Ottawa has not been quite as bad as some people have believed so far. While I for one am a supporter of the “trade Alfredson” idea, I think it’s obvious that the team has more talent than they’ve shown. Consider that they rank 8th in the league in goals per game with 3.25. Even their goals against per game is no worse than mid-range, ranking 13th in the league (2.90). They need work in a few key areas. Goaltending is one, and playing Emery more is a good first step. At some point, they’ll have to address the Gerber situation, but now is not the time. Now is the time to string together a few wins and get their confidence back. Then they can give Gerber a few important starts and see if he can recover this year.

Special teams is a bigger concern, but one I expect to sort itself out. The Sens rank 25th in power play (12.9%), although their penalty killing is better at 11th (84.7%). Wade Redden’s return from injury is one factor that can only help the power play. And really, a team that can put out Alfredsson - Jason Spezza - Danny Heatley as its first power play unit should not be ranked near the bottom of the league. They’ll do better.

Another good sign: 5th in shots per game (32.8). Only good things can come out of regularly outshooting your opponents.

I’ve recently picked up a number of Senators in my hockey pool that were dropped in the last few weeks after their poor starts. No one knee-jerked enough to drop any of the really big guns - Alfredson, Heatley, Spezza - but second tier guys like Mike Fischer, Patrick Eaves and Antoine Vermette were all sitting as free agents. These guys will not control the team’s future but they will benefit from it. As the Sens get rolling, their second and third line players will get to be part of the blowouts this team is capable of.

Another tough loss for the Senators to swallow last night.  David Johnson at Hockey Analysis.com points out that the Sens have managed only 7 wins last year and this when scoring 3 or fewer goals.  Pretty bad considering they had 46 wins last year.  How does this team manage to thrash my beloved Leafs so often and so thoroughly?

November Prediction Totals: 27-for-40; 67.5%

Tonight’s Picks:

Away                Home                        Prediction

—————————————————–

Carolina            New Jersey                Carolina
Edmonton        Montreal                    Edmonton
Minnesota        San Jose                    Minnesota
Los Angeles     Colorado                    Colorado
Dallas              Calgary                      Dallas

A number of very close games tonight.  I’m not entirely sure why Colorado over the Kings is so close.  Every time I’ve watched the Avalanche this year, they’ve looked surprisingly good.  Much better both offensively and defensively than I expect — oh look, it’s Jose Theodore, back to his steady ways.

Minnesota in San Jose should be a heck of a game.  Conference Final matchup perhaps?  Minnesota has a moderate edge here, but watch out for Joe Thornton - Jonathan Cheechoo - Mark Bell.  If those three figure out the season started already, lookout.  I think Thornton would finish the year with 100+ assists even if he fell into a coma.

Dallas lost a very close one to Vancouver last night.  They could be tired, or they could be angry.  I would think anger is more likely.  Marty Turco had the night off, so he won’t be tired.

First off, full disclosure - I’m a Leafs fan and I happen to (usually) like the way that Darcy Tucker plays. Now that that’s out of the way…

The Leafs were getting beat pretty baddly, tempers were starting to flare, and Tucker was hitting everything in sight - and getting hit in return. He latched on to Patrick Eaves, who obviously didn’t want to fight. I give Eaves full credit here - he didn’t turtle, he didn’t run away. He stood his ground, took his licks and threw a few good punches.

I have a few beefs with how this fight went down, most (not all) having to do with Tucker’s conduct.

1) Fight someone who’s willing. Tucker should have gone after someone who wanted to fight. Eaves had never been in an NHL fight before. Whether it’s true or not, this simply makes Tucker look like he was too scared to take on Patrick Fischer or Chris Neil, both of whom can (and have) pounded him in the past.

2) Take off your helmet if you’re wearing a visor. Now, I know Eaves didn’t want to fight, and I know Tucker didn’t really give him a chance. But if you aren’t going to pull off your visor, then you shouldn’t be throwing punches, period. Had Eaves taken the time to pull his visor off, and Tucker had kept throwing punches throughout, it really would have made Tucker look bad.

3) Don’t give your opponent a rallying point in game 1 of a home-and-home series. Seriously Tucker. All you’ve done is give the Senators another reason to be fired up for the next game. It was too late to get the team going that game, and you picked on a skill player who didn’t want a fight. Now you know Neil (maybe Fischer) is going to go after Tucker next game, a fight Tucker will have a tough time staying in, let alone winning. Oh boy!

4) Give Tucker a break. I know, I’m contradicting myself here. But consider that Tucker is hardly the first guy in the NHL to pick a fight with an unenthusiastic victim. Zdeno Chara has fought with Vincent Lecavalier twice, and not surprisingly pummeled him both times. Is there a single person out there who thinks Vinny wanted to fight Chara the second time around? Of course he didn’t! But Chara wouldn’t let him go, and so Lecavalier did his best. Eaves did the same thing Vinny did, but Tucker did the same thing as Chara!

The point is that Tucker didn’t go after someone smaller than he is, Eaves was playing physical, and both of them walked way without injury. Rather than all the posturing and arguing over whether Tucker is a cheap player or a gritty team leader, why don’t we all just sit back, relax, and enjoy what should be a wild rematch tonight?

Additions Since Last Year: Tom Preissing, Barinka, Josh Hennessy, Martin Gerber, Joe Corvo

Subtractions: Dominic Hasek, Martin Havlat, Zdeno Chara, Tyler Arnason, Vaclav Varada, Brian Pothier, Mike Morrison

Analysis:

Ottawa went into the offseason knowing they were going to lose some big players. They did so but did a pretty good job of signing who they could while adding yet more talented young players with potential to help fill in the gaps down the road. The hole left by the loss of Chara will be the largest - literally - but is not the only one. Pothier, Varada (if not resigned), Havlat, and even Arnason were all a part of Ottawa’s success (picking up Arnason isn’t looking like such a hot trade for Ottawa fans now), and not one of the players added to replace them bring the same level of firepower to the table. Losing Hasek for Gerber gives the Sens another goaltender who played extremely well in the regular season last year but lost his job to the rookie Cam Ward down the playoff stretch.

On the other hand, Ottawa kept together the line of Heatly, Spezza and Alfredson who tore up the league so effectively last year. Gerber played very well throughout the season and was rumoured to be hampered with an injury during the playoffs. And Ray Emery last year showed the ability to carry the team for stretches. The more experienced Gerber should help Emery’s development. Goaltending should not be an issue for the Sens next year.

The loss of Havlat will also certainly hurt, though not as much as it should. The Sens offence was dominant last season despite Havlat missing nearly the entire year. Arnason should never have been acquired, and the loss of Bochenski will be left over the next few years more than the loss of Arnason.

The main concern for Ottawa next year may not be within but without. Toronto, and Boston both got better over the summer, and Ottawa may not be able to beat them up so easily this time around. Can the defence corps handle the workload without Chara? Can Gerber compare to Hasek? Can Spezza be as good as he thinks he is?

Ottawa seems a lock to make the playoffs, and should easily maintain home ice advantage through at least the first round. However, they should have to work harder this year, at least against their own division.