NHL analysis

Major Additions: Luke Richardson, Shean Donovan

Major Subtractions: Mike Comrie, Tom Preissing, Peter Schaefer

Analysis

Patience didn’t save John Muckler’s job, but it may have been just what the Ottawa Senators needed.

Remember the start of last season, when everyone was calling for the team to trade Daniel Alfredsson? The Senators struggled early a year ago but keeping the team together was obviously the right decision. Fast forward to the summer, when trade rumours surrounded Martin Gerber right through pre-season (where he played extremely well). With Ray Emery on the shelf for an undetermined time-frame, Gerber is the go-to guy in Canada’s capital once again. The Senators may still look to trade him, if only to free up cap space in their attempts to re-sign Danny Heatley, Jason Spezza and Wade Redden before the summer, but it won’t happen anytime soon.

The Senators went deep into the playoffs last year and kept most of their team together, but that doesn’t mean they’re the automatic favourites in the East. The loss of Preissing (the Sens’ highest scoring blueliner last year), Comrie and Schaefer mean the team once again lacks scoring depth behind its big three of Alfredsson, Spezza and Heatley. If enough teams learn from the convincing five-game thrashing the Anaheim Ducks delivered the Senators in the Cup finals, we may see more teams take a hard, fast, rugged forecheck against this team. While defencemen Anton Volchenkov and Chris Phillips can handle that, the rest of the defencemen are notoriously less prepared for it. Redden, in particular, seems to have trouble justifying his $6.5 million contract when he’s playing in his own end.

Other question marks remain but most are minor at worst. The team will have a tough time keeping its core together past this year, so they know this might be their best chance of winning as a group. The Senators have to be considered the favourites to win the East this year.

As promised, here is my complete coverage/prediction for the Stanley Cup Final Series.  I’ll be abandoning the format I used for the first three rounds and just focusing on analysis, as these two teams played such vastly different opponents throughout the regular season direct comparison of stats don’t mean a whole heck of a lot.

Offence

The Senators roll four lines but rely on one, while the Ducks lean heavily on all three of their top lines while their fourth liners warm the bench.  It’s an interesting matchup because neither team features the really deep, balanced scoring like last year’s Stanley Cup Champions (the Hurricanes top three centremen last year were Brind’Amour, Staal and Weight).

The Senators have very successfully played solid playoff hockey, focusing on defence first and capitalizing on their power play and turnover opportunities.  The Ducks are strong, tough and physical on the forecheck, dominating down low and cycling very well.

I give the edge to the Ducks because if the Sens big line slows or gets slowed down, the Sens have almost nothing else to fall back on.  The Ducks have no one as dominant as Heatley, Alfredsson and Spezza have been, but they’re more consistent.

Defence

The Sens have the deeper blueline, while the Ducks have the best blueliners.  The Sens will rely heavily on Volchenkov and Phillips, but because of the balanced attack of the Ducks, they will also need Redden and Meszaros, and even Corvo and Preissing, to be effective at shutting down the opposition.  On the other hand, the Sens top line will in all likelihood never set foot on the ice without at least one of Niedermayer or Pronger opposing them.

The Ducks did better than I expected when Pronger was out of the lineup serving his one game suspension, and that bodes well for them because it shows they have more depth than most would give them credit for.  However, the burden still rests on Scott and Chris to essentially outplay two or three of Ottawa’s defencemen each.  As I believe they are up to the task, I give the Ducks the edge on the blueline.

Goal

Ray Emery has played very well, and will continue to give his team a chance to win every single night, but the edge has to go the Giguere here.  A 12-1 overtime playoff record says it all - JS has a proven record of showing up big when his team needs him most.

Prediction

Ducks in 7.  The seven game prediction may just be my desire to see as much hockey as possible before the season ends, but I do believe Ottawa will come out strong.  They have looked like a team on a mission since game 1 of the playoffs.  I just don’t think they have the depth to expose the thinness of the Ducks’ blueline or the toughness to do much damage when Pronger and Niedermayer are on the ice.

That being said, as a Canadian, I have to root for the Sens, even if it feels very, very wrong.

Ah, the rematch from last year’s playoffs everyone’s been hoping for.  The Sabres have been involved in one easy and boring series versus the Islanders and one surprisingly tough and fun to watch series versus the Rangers, while the Senators mopped up the Penguins faster than almost anyone predicted then eliminated the Devils just as quickly.  The Sabres are the better team on paper and unlike the Sens, they’ve been receiving offence from all throughout their lineup, but we’ve yet to see the A game out of Buffalo, and that will need to change.  On the flip side, the Senators have been churning along due pretty much exclusively to their big guns.

The Sabres will win if their big names can pace the Spezza-Heatley-Alfredsson line, as it’s all but assured the 2nd, 3rd and 4th lines will tilt heavily in favour of the Sabres.  Ryan Miller needs to be good but not necessarily perfect, since the Sabres are going to be just fine if these games turn into shootouts (shootouts as in high-scoring affairs, not actual shootouts).

The Senators need their role players to start performing and they need their top line to dominate, something that will not be easy, no matter who they’re matched up against.  They also need Ray Emery to steal a game or two.  Although the Sens are usually more than happy with high-scoring games, they need to be successful in keeping these games close and tight.  They also need to get off to a good start, because the Sabres so far have been something of a slumbering beast.  When they wake up…

I’ve gone back and forth on this one but I have to go with the Senators.  The Sabres just haven’t looked like the desperate, hungry hockey team that I’ve been looking for.  The Senators, on the other hand, have.  That being said, it’s likely to be a close series, and likely one of the most entertaining to watch, to boot.  The longer the series goes, the more in the air the outcome will be, because as I mentioned earlier, the Sabres still haven’t really woken up and when they do, lookout.

My prediction: Senators in 6

Here are things I’ve noticed about each of the remaining 8 teams:

Buffalo Sabres: Strong, fast, deep, talented - but not very tough.  The Sabres don’t have a particularly gritty team, and the insertion of Tim Connolly onto the fourth line (while obviously the right decision) has only added to that.  I just can’t see the Sabres lasting against a team like San Jose or Anaheim if they were to make the finals.  That being said, I wouldn’t want to be the team to face them or tell them that.

New York Rangers: Just not good enough to beat the Sabre (not that anyone is surprised).  While Henrik Lundqvist has been excellent, and Jaromir Jagr looks like he’s out to prove something, the defence and the second, third and fourth lines simply lack the skill to skate with their opponents.  This is not to say that the Rangers can’t win.  But they’ll have to be very, very patient if they wish to do so.

New Jersey Devils: The Devils are a team that just wins.  Of course it starts with Brodeur, but it continues with everyone from Scott Gomez (10 assists so far in the playoffs) on down.  That being said, they needed overtime to salvage a slit of their opening two home games against the Senators.  As long as Ray Emery can continue to remain within spitting distance of Brodeur’s play, the Devils will be hard pressed to lengthen this series, let alone win it.

Ottawa Senators: So far, the Sens look determined to break their reputation as playoff chokers.  For how long?  They may still fall apart, but it won’t be happening anytime soon.  They still could have used Gary Roberts, but maybe, just maybe, they’ll make do without him.  If I didn’t know any better I’d swear Mike Comrie was playing for a new contract…

Detroit Red Wings: Very nearly went down 2-0 heading to San Jose.  Detroit may just have their hands full with a bigger, faster, strong Sharks team.  The good news is Pavel Datsyuk is playing up to his new contract, Hasek remains one of the best, and the Wings got past the first round.

San Jose Sharks: My current pick for “team to beat” remaining in the playoffs.  The Sharks forwards are so big, so tough, so mean, and so all around goooood it’s almost scary.  Craig Rivet was worth the first round pick the Sharks gave up after all.  And maybe the Sharks should be moving Toskala instead of Nabokov.

Anaheim Ducks: The third and fourth liners are hardly playing.  That’s both the best and worst thing the Ducks could hope for here.  The Ducks have some of the best players in the league on their top two lines and defence pairs, but the rest of their line up is somewhat weaker than that of their opponents.  In long games and long series’, that is potentially worrisome.  Do they have the stamina if they’re only playing half their roster?

Vancouver Canucks: Managed to split the games in Anaheim (which I didn’t think they would) but then dropped game three in Vancouver.  They certainly can’t afford to drop game four, and I’m not sure winning it would be enough, either.  However, I have to give the team credit - how different would the situation be if they hadn’t suffered the injuries to their blueline?

Key players for Ottawa: Ray Emery, Mike Comrie, Dany Heatley

Key players for New Jersey: Martin Brodeur, Brian Rafalski, Patrik Elias

Analysis: After watching New Jersey have so much trouble with the Tampa Bay Lightning, I have little confidence in them defeating the Senators, who look like a determined and focused team against the Pittsburgh Penguins. Comrie has played very well, enough to add a significant second threat while keeping the big line of Heatley, Spezza and Alfredsson together. Most importantly of all, the Senators have confidence in their goaltender and have plenty to prove. The Devils to me seem uninterested. That had better change if they hope to last against the Sens.

You can never count out Brodeur, but he’ll have virtually no margin for error in this matchup. The Senators are much stronger at every single position than the Lightning were, and the Devils had trouble with them. The Devils are an excellent team at pouncing on turnovers, but so are the Senators, and their guns are bigger. I’d expect a fairly quick out for the Devils.

Prediction: Senators in 5

Key players for Pittsburgh: Sidney Crosby, Marc-Andre Fleury, Gary Roberts

Key players for Ottawa: Dany Heatley, Ray Emery, Wade Redden
Analysis: As a Leafs fan, one of my few remaining hopes for this season remains watching Roberts beat up the Ottawa Senators.  It’s a particularly juicy story given that Muckler has already been criticized for not acquiring Roberts at the deadline.  And make no mistake - Roberts will be a major piece of this story.

The series, I believe, will come down to goaltending.  Fleury is improving almost daily, but I do not believe he is ready for this.  Emery, on the other hand, has playoff experience and is playing to prove he deserves the starter’s role.  If he wants to play next season (not to mention receive a big pay raise this summer) he has to continue to outplay Martin Gerber (not too tough apparently).

By winning home ice advantage I think the Senators have picked up the slim advantage needed to win this series.  While the Penguins are more than capable of upsetting the Sens, and while I feel the Penguins (unlike the Sens) explicitly and effectively identified and acquired missing pieces at the trade deadline, I don’t think there’s the same level of urgency in Pittsburgh as there is in Ottawa.  The Penguins have years to win with the core they’ve built, and most of that core has zero playoff experience.

Prediction: Ottawa in seven games

My previous post about the Ottawa Senators got me thinking about the team going forward.

It seems all but certain that one (at least) of head coach Bryan Murray and General Manager John Muckler will be losing their jobs if the Senators fail to go deep in the playoffs this year. The Senators have changed goaltenders, changed players, changed coaches but success in the post-season has eluded them for many years. This has been true even following wildly successful regular seasons. So who’s to blame, per say?

GM Muckler has done very well on some fronts and not so well on others. Jason Spezza and Danny Heatley make a combined $9 million - not too bad for 163 points in 125 games. Daniel Alfredsson’s 75 points in 65 games is a pretty decent bargain at $4.339 million, either.

Muckler has managed to deal with several star players insisting on such high salaries they’ve been moved, and you rarely hear complaints about the loss of Martin Havlat, Marian Hossa or Zdeno Chara (of course there are some complaints, but Muckler has done pretty well all things considered).

On the other hand…

As things stand, the Senators have a little over $34 million dedicated to 13 players for next season. Up front there doesn’t seem to be much reason to worry, with Alfredsson, Heatley, Spezza, Peter Schaefer, Mike Fisher, Chris Neil, Antoine Vermette, Patrick Eaves and Brian McGrattan all returning. Only Mike Comrie (acquired for Alexei Kaigorodov earlier this year), Chris Kelly (RFA), Dean McAmmond and Oleg Saprykin (RFA) remain unsigned.

The blueline and goal are more worrisome. Wade Redden ($6.5 million), Joe Corvo ($2.625 million) and Andrej Meszaros ($0.984 million) are signed, but Chris Phillips (UFA), Anton Volchenkov (RFA), Tom Preissing (UFA) and Christoph Schubert (RFA) are not. Martin Gerber is signed for 2 more seasons, though he has yet to show more than flashes of being worth his $3.7 million. Perhaps the biggest worry has to be pending Restricted Free Agent Ray Emery, who has outplayed supposed starter Gerber from the first game of the season.

Redden is the highest paid Senator but plays only 2 minutes per game more than Phillips, Meszaros or Volchenkov. Phillips is expected to take a home-town discount to remain in Ottawa, but even that will likely see him make $3 to 4 million. Emery could demand $3.5 million or higher, given the success he has had over the past two seasons (his save percentage and GAA have been consistently near the top of the league since last year). This will all work together to put Ottawa in quite the salary cap squeeze.

The GM’s role won’t get any easier the following summer, either, with Redden, Heatley and Fisher all slated to become Unrestricted Free Agents and joined by RFA’s Spezza, Vermette, Eaves, McGratton and Meszaros.

So despite a number of smart moves, maybe Mucker is the one who needs to go. He’s been consistently criticized for not bringing in the character players his team has never really had, and this may finally outweigh his excellent handling of the likes of Havlat and Hossa.

Murray, after all, can only work with what he’s given.

Thanks to the Battle of Ontario for bringing to my attention an odd fact: with Chris Phillips and Anton Volchenkov getting the majority of playing time in Ottawa, does that make Wade Redden the number three man in Canada’s capital city?
Pointing to ice time (Phillips and Volchenkov over 27 minutes, Redden 21 in Tuesday’s game), and several comments from Bryan Murray, they ask several questions, including one in particular:

3) If Volchenkov is up for RFA this year (and he is), how fast do you think his agent clipped that quote out of today’s paper? ….

Perhaps the Senators organization is regretting choosing Redden over Zdeno Chara?