NHL analysis

Major Additions: Scott Gomez, Chris Drury

Major Subtractions: Kevin Weekes, Karel Rachunek, Brad Isbister, Michael Nylander, Jed Ortmyer, Sandis Ozolinsh

Analysis

The Rangers were a busy team during the off-season, snagging two of the most highly sought after centers on opening day and then spending most of the remainder of their summer locking up returning pieces. Marcel Hossa, Sean Avery and most importantly Henrik Lundqvist all earned raises though all signed very short-term contracts.

Make no mistake about it - the Rangers goal is nothing short of a Stanley Cup this year. They have but two years left on Jaromir Jagr’s contract and there is no guarantee he will play in the NHL when that expires. We also know that Brendan Shanahan’s days in the NHL are also nearing their end. And here’s a fun fact: the top four defencemen on this team are all heading to unrestricted free agency at the end of this season. Of defencemen expected to play for the Big Apple this year, only Thomas Pock and Marc Staal are signed past next summer.

With all of that in mind, what on earth was Glen Sather thinking giving such lengthy contracts to Gomez and Drury? Are they really the replacements he wants when Shanahan and Jagr decide to retire?

Gomez’s best season came in 2005-06 when he managed 84 points in 82 games - very impressive and certainly first line material, if not superstar numbers. But beyond 05-06 he’s managed to hit 70 points only twice in his NHL career, with the first time coming all the way back in 1999-2000. He’s coming off a very pedestrian season in which he managed only 13 goals and 60 points. Now that’s not bad, and it is worth noting that he’s still a very young player. But how on earth did a 60 point season translate into 7 year, $7.3 million per season contract?

Drury is a more controversial addition, but one I will also attempt to address. Let me start by saying I have great respect for Chris Drury and I would select him on my team anytime, anyplace. With that being said, however, Drury has never broken the 70 point plateau in his NHL career. You cannot discount his heart or leadership, but how did Drury manage to turn a pair of 30+ goals, 65+ points seasons into a five year, $7+ million per season contract?

I believe that Sather fell into the trap of overpaying for these two because of the general lack of truly elite talent in the summer’s pool of UFA forwards. These two were undeniably two of the top three forwards available (Ryan Smyth being the third), but not one player available this summer is in the same mold as a Joe Thornton, Jarome Iginla, Vincent Lecavalier or Danny Heatley. But they were still paid as such!

I blogged previously about the uncertainty of the salary cap (the current CBA could expire as early as the summer preceding the 2009 season. This could be a very large problem for the Rangers, as they now have over $12 million is payroll locked up in these two players for at least the next five years. During that time, they will face re-signing Lundqvist, Marc Staal, Petr Prucha and likely even newer prospects like Alexei Cherepanov as they hit unrestricted free agency. The Rangers here are a perfect example of why I am against these long term (greater than 3-4 years) contracts. There is too much change over the course of half a decade to plan around any but a generational talent (i.e. the Penguins would be smart to sign Crosby to a 10 year extension, but that’s about it).

As far as this season goes, the Rangers have to be considered a Stanley Cup favourite, so long as Lundqvist remains healthy and one of Gomez or Drury can find some chemistry on the top line. The departure of Kevin Weekes, who played in only 14 games last season, could very well prove the undoing of this team, which now lacks an experienced goaltender behind sensational King Henrik. Should he become injured, don’t be surprised if the Rangers make a move to pick up a veteran goaltender from a team like Los Angeles or Phoenix (both currently loaded with experienced if not incredible tenders). Of course, Lundqvist has not proved injury prone so far in his young NHL career, so Ranger fans don’t need to start panicking just yet.

Here are things I’ve noticed about each of the remaining 8 teams:

Buffalo Sabres: Strong, fast, deep, talented - but not very tough.  The Sabres don’t have a particularly gritty team, and the insertion of Tim Connolly onto the fourth line (while obviously the right decision) has only added to that.  I just can’t see the Sabres lasting against a team like San Jose or Anaheim if they were to make the finals.  That being said, I wouldn’t want to be the team to face them or tell them that.

New York Rangers: Just not good enough to beat the Sabre (not that anyone is surprised).  While Henrik Lundqvist has been excellent, and Jaromir Jagr looks like he’s out to prove something, the defence and the second, third and fourth lines simply lack the skill to skate with their opponents.  This is not to say that the Rangers can’t win.  But they’ll have to be very, very patient if they wish to do so.

New Jersey Devils: The Devils are a team that just wins.  Of course it starts with Brodeur, but it continues with everyone from Scott Gomez (10 assists so far in the playoffs) on down.  That being said, they needed overtime to salvage a slit of their opening two home games against the Senators.  As long as Ray Emery can continue to remain within spitting distance of Brodeur’s play, the Devils will be hard pressed to lengthen this series, let alone win it.

Ottawa Senators: So far, the Sens look determined to break their reputation as playoff chokers.  For how long?  They may still fall apart, but it won’t be happening anytime soon.  They still could have used Gary Roberts, but maybe, just maybe, they’ll make do without him.  If I didn’t know any better I’d swear Mike Comrie was playing for a new contract…

Detroit Red Wings: Very nearly went down 2-0 heading to San Jose.  Detroit may just have their hands full with a bigger, faster, strong Sharks team.  The good news is Pavel Datsyuk is playing up to his new contract, Hasek remains one of the best, and the Wings got past the first round.

San Jose Sharks: My current pick for “team to beat” remaining in the playoffs.  The Sharks forwards are so big, so tough, so mean, and so all around goooood it’s almost scary.  Craig Rivet was worth the first round pick the Sharks gave up after all.  And maybe the Sharks should be moving Toskala instead of Nabokov.

Anaheim Ducks: The third and fourth liners are hardly playing.  That’s both the best and worst thing the Ducks could hope for here.  The Ducks have some of the best players in the league on their top two lines and defence pairs, but the rest of their line up is somewhat weaker than that of their opponents.  In long games and long series’, that is potentially worrisome.  Do they have the stamina if they’re only playing half their roster?

Vancouver Canucks: Managed to split the games in Anaheim (which I didn’t think they would) but then dropped game three in Vancouver.  They certainly can’t afford to drop game four, and I’m not sure winning it would be enough, either.  However, I have to give the team credit - how different would the situation be if they hadn’t suffered the injuries to their blueline?

Key players for Buffalo: Ryan Miller, Tim Connolly, Brian Campbell

Key players for New York: Henrik Lundqvist, Sean Avery, Marek Malik

Analysis: The Sabres at first glance seem the obvious favourites, but the Rangers have been one of the better teams since the All-Star break and should cause troubles for Buffalo.  Sean Avery is proving to be the best rental player acquired at the deadline so far.  Lundqvist continues to be among the league’s elite.

The Rangers big weak point is on the blueline.  They have several big, lumbering defencemen, led by Marek Malik, who are likely to be exposed by the fast, skilled, deep forwards of the Sabres.  On the flip side, I’m not convinced the Sabres blueline can handle the likes of Jagr, Nylander and Straka if the series goes longer than a few games.  That will put increased pressure on Ryan Miller, though he should be up to the task.

I have to lean in favour of of the Sabres here, and I doubt it would even be close.  Lundqvist will likely steal a game or two for the Rangers, but unless they absolutely dominate the Sabres on special teams - which is possible if unlikely - the Rangers will be packing their bags pretty darned quick.

Prediction: Sabres in 6

Key players for NY Rangers: Henrik Lundqvist, Jaromir Jagr, Sean Avery

Key players for Atlanta: Keith Tkachuk, Marian Hossa, Kari Lehtonen

Analysis: How on earth are the Thrashers the third seed?  Ranked bottom 10 in both power play and penalty killing, only a single goal more for than against… even playing in a weak division, the Thrashers are lucky to be in the playoffs.  This will be a first round upset.

Lundqvist was the key down the stretch and will continue to be so.  He is the real deal.  I was skeptical at the begining of the year (I’m skeptical of all second year goaltenders) but he’s made me a believer.  I don’t think the Rangers have the depth up front or on the blueline for a long run but I would be very surprised if they didn’t make it out of the first round.

But there is some worry.  Johan Hedberg is a more viable Plan B than Kevin Weekes should injuries occur.  Tkachuk and Alexei Zhitnik, though expensive, have proved very valuable since the trade deadline.  The Rangers are very top heavy, though their addition of Sean Avery as added more to the team than I expected.

Prediction: Rangers in six

For those itching for any and every write up on the playoff races, here are a few sites to keep an eye on (some of which I’ve mentioned before):

Hockey Rodent and his BerthWatch.

HockeyAnalysis.com has a recent post on possible scenarios.

HockeyLeaks post on where things stand.

It’s worth noting that even with only a few days left in the regular season, there are as many as 3 open spots in the Eastern race. Neither the Lightning nor Rangers have definitively clinched their playoff spots, let alone their positions in the seedings, while even the Islanders are technically still in the race.

For all those (myself very much included) who complain about the scheduling format of the NHL, there are times when it is obvious the guys in charge got at least some parts of it sooooo right.

As of right this instant, it’s looking like the playoff race in the East is down to two teams - Toronto and Montreal - fighting for the 8th spot.  The Hurricanes and Islanders are all but finished while the Rangers and Lightning have all but clinched their spots.  Carolina and Long Island sit 4 points out of 8th with 4 games each left to play, and they would have to jump over both Toronto and Montreal to get in.

Once you’re convinced that it’s more or less a two horse race, take a peak at the schedule.  Look ahead about one week, to April the 7th.  What’s that?  Montreal in Toronto?  Damn straight!

I’m already looking forward to next Saturday night.

Here’s a look at the Eastern Conference race for the final three playoff spots, in order of least likely to most likely to make the playoffs (ordered by using my Predicted Final Standings as of March 20, 2007):

Boston is all but finished.  They sit with 73 points, 11 games left, with by far the toughest schedule of any of the teams fighting for a spot.  The weakest team that Boston plays is Montreal (three times in fact).  The best Boston can hope for is to play spoiler (two wins against Montreal would help the teams above them quite a bit).

Florida is further out but has a very slightly higher chance.  They have 73 points but only 10 games to play.  They get the bonus of playing Philadelphia and Washington, as well as Atlanta, Tampa Bay (twice) and Carolina (twice).  Given their strong play since the trade deadline, Florida remains a long shot but not out of the question.

Montreal is tied with two teams at 78 points, but they’ve played one game more than Toronto and two more than the Islanders.  They’ve been in a tailspin since December that only got worse when their starting goaltender was injured.  Three games against Boston is Montreal’s only remaining hope - anything less than a full sweep of those games would all but eliminate the Habs all on their own.  Montreal also has two remaining games against the Rangers and close the season in Toronto, so even if Montreal isn’t in the playoffs they will have a huge say in who is.

New York Islanders face a goaltending dilemma as long as Rick DiPietro is injured.  The good news is that he looks set to return.  The bad news is in his absence the Islanders went from being solidly in the playoffs to fighting for their lives.  Their schedule difficulty ranks in the middle of the pack, easier than Tampa Bay, Toronto and Boston but harder than Florida, Montreal, Carolina or the Rangers.  Ryan Smyth has had more of an impact on the Oilers (no victories since he left) than on the Islanders since the deadline.

Toronto has struggled in games they ’should’ win and done better than expected in games they should have trouble with.  With a schedule more difficult than any team in this race except for the Bruins, the Leafs are likely to fall short.  In another week this should be decided - two games against Buffalo and one against New Jersey don’t leave much room for error.  The games that follow against Carlina, the Islanders and Montreal will only be important if they don’t drop out of the picture before they get there.

Tampa Bay should be solidly in the playoffs but they are not.  How much longer will the Lightning stand behind Tortorella’s “encouragement” tactics of his goaltenders?  Tampa has a pretty tough schedule but they have the largest margin for error, leading this pack of players and even within striking distance of third by catching Atlanta (not likely given the Thrashers’ play since the trade deadline).

New York Rangers have been the only solid team in this race over recent games, due almost exclusively to the play of Henrik Lundqvist.  If that trend continues the Rangers will easily slip into the playoffs, possibly as high as 6th place.  If Lundqvist stumbles, even having (by far) the easiest remaining schedule in this race won’t save the team.  The best team the Rangers have left to play are the Penguins.  Their numerous games against teams in the race include the Islanders (twice), Montreal (twice) and Leafs.  That many “4 point” games could swing things in almost any direction.

Carolina has goaltending issues, though not the issues I long predicted.  Cam Ward has been solid enough but now he’s hurt.  Carolina’s remaining schedule is easier than anyone’s but the Rangers here and they sit in a playoff spot - barely - right now.  The Canes need other teams to stumble but that seems almost certain to happen.  Two games against Tampa Bay will be key.

I’m always skeptical when a rookie goalkeeper is given a pivotal role in his second season.  All too often, second-season players in the NHL fall prey to the dreaded “sophomore slump.”  No position faces more pressure than starting goaltender.  A goaltender such as Henrik Lundqvist, who came in last season with little expected of him and performed so well, came into this season with very, very lofty expectations.  I questioned from before the preseason how well he would handle
himself now that he’s expected to carry the team with support from Kevin Weekes, rather than the other way around.

Well, as the Hockey Rodent points out, pretty damned well. Since January 12, 2007, Lundqvist has played more minutes than anyone in the league except for Martin Brodeur and Miikka Kiprusoff, and he leads the league over that time span in both goals against average and save percentage.  His sparkling numbers (1.742 GAA and 0.939 save %, to be precise) are head and shoulders above any of his competition for the playoff spots in the East and have almost single handedly given the Rangers the momentum heading into the final stretch of the regular season.  He’s giving up almost a full third of a goal less per 60 minutes than his nearest rival (Marty Turco) and three-quarters of a goal per 60 minutes less than the nearest rival in the playoff race, the currently injured Rick DiPietro.