NHL analysis

Major Additions: Josef Vasicek, Andy Sutton, Joey MacDonald, Mike Comrie, Bill Guerin, Ruslan Fedotenko, Jonathan Sim

Major Subtractions: Aaron Asham, Sean Hill, Ryan Smyth, Richard Zednik, Tom Poti, Viktor Kozlov, Jason Blake, Alexei Yashin

Analysis

Is it fair to judge a General Manager’s success purely after the final results are in? Garth Snow sure hopes not. Widely praised for prying Ryan Smyth away for a few middling prospects at the trade deadline last year (a move that surely contributed to his team squeaking into the post-season), Snow must now be looked at as the GM who parted ways with prospects to get a team loaded with impending UFA’s a few extra games, then couldn’t keep that core together.

The Islanders lost big in the early days of free agency and could only fine mid-to-low tier replacements. While players like Guerin and Comrie are consistent performers, they’re not consistent first line performers. Nor do they come without question marks - Comrie over his work ethic and Guerin over his age.

The departure of Yashin, while a long-term blessing, will hurt in the short term (and the lengthy cap hit of his buyout will haunt the team for years and years).

The departures of Poti, Zednik and Kozlov are more obviously and inarguably bad news for Islander fans. Not one of those three were adequately replaced, and suitable replacements from within are unlikely to say the least. The acquisition of Marc-Andre Bergeron was a very pleasent surprise that will at least soften the blow, however.

The Islanders will likely miss the playoffs this season. They’ve lost too much ground and the teams around them have improved too much for anyone to bank on otherwise. While Ted Nolan has done an admirable job with the pieces he’s been given, it’s unreasonable to expect him to work miracles - and that’s just what would be needed for this team to make the playoffs.

Key players for NY Islanders: Ryan Smyth, Alexei Yashin, Rick DiPietro

Key players for Buffalo: Thomas Vanek, Ryan Miller, Chris Drury

Analysis: Considered the most lopsided matchup by almost all the experts, I can’t find that I disagree. The Sabres outscore their opponents by almost a full goal per game, while the Islanders barely managed to score more goals than they allowed over the season. The Islanders also barely squeaked into the playoffs despite playing in a much easier division than the Sabres.

There are a few things to watch for on the Islanders side, however. First, the Sabres have very ordinary special teams this year. While referees typically swallow their whistles in the post season, the power play and penalty kill could be Buffalo’s Achilles’ Heel. The Islanders can’t hope to keep up with the Sabres 5 on 5, so they will have to absolutely dominate special teams play to have a chance.

The other factor to keep a watch for is the return of Rick DiPietro. Should he return then the Islanders could steal a few games. While “Dubie” has played very well of late, it would be quite a stretch to count on him shutting down the powerful Sabres’ offence for long.

The longer this series goes, the more the Islanders will surprise everyone. Brendan Witt and Sean Hill will lead the charge in wearing down the Sabres; look for small scrums, shoving and a few hacks after every single whistle. The Sabres cannot afford to get caught up in a long, physical series against the Islanders if they have hopes of a long run.

Prediction: Sabres in five games

I’ll admit it - I’ve been eagerly looking forward to Saturday night’s Habs-Leafs matchup as the deciding factor in who sneaks in to 8th.  Then I took a look at the standings and tonight’s matchups, and realized it might not matter.

If the Leafs fall one more point behind the Habs, then it’s all over for them.  The Islanders, on the other hand, are all but eliminated but they won’t quit until the math says it really is impossible.  That could also happen tonight but it hasn’t happened yet.

The point is that no team can afford to look beyond its next game at this time of year.  Worrying about the Habs could leave the Leafs looking forward to nothing.

For those itching for any and every write up on the playoff races, here are a few sites to keep an eye on (some of which I’ve mentioned before):

Hockey Rodent and his BerthWatch.

HockeyAnalysis.com has a recent post on possible scenarios.

HockeyLeaks post on where things stand.

It’s worth noting that even with only a few days left in the regular season, there are as many as 3 open spots in the Eastern race. Neither the Lightning nor Rangers have definitively clinched their playoff spots, let alone their positions in the seedings, while even the Islanders are technically still in the race.

For all those (myself very much included) who complain about the scheduling format of the NHL, there are times when it is obvious the guys in charge got at least some parts of it sooooo right.

As of right this instant, it’s looking like the playoff race in the East is down to two teams - Toronto and Montreal - fighting for the 8th spot.  The Hurricanes and Islanders are all but finished while the Rangers and Lightning have all but clinched their spots.  Carolina and Long Island sit 4 points out of 8th with 4 games each left to play, and they would have to jump over both Toronto and Montreal to get in.

Once you’re convinced that it’s more or less a two horse race, take a peak at the schedule.  Look ahead about one week, to April the 7th.  What’s that?  Montreal in Toronto?  Damn straight!

I’m already looking forward to next Saturday night.

Here’s a look at the Eastern Conference race for the final three playoff spots, in order of least likely to most likely to make the playoffs (ordered by using my Predicted Final Standings as of March 20, 2007):

Boston is all but finished.  They sit with 73 points, 11 games left, with by far the toughest schedule of any of the teams fighting for a spot.  The weakest team that Boston plays is Montreal (three times in fact).  The best Boston can hope for is to play spoiler (two wins against Montreal would help the teams above them quite a bit).

Florida is further out but has a very slightly higher chance.  They have 73 points but only 10 games to play.  They get the bonus of playing Philadelphia and Washington, as well as Atlanta, Tampa Bay (twice) and Carolina (twice).  Given their strong play since the trade deadline, Florida remains a long shot but not out of the question.

Montreal is tied with two teams at 78 points, but they’ve played one game more than Toronto and two more than the Islanders.  They’ve been in a tailspin since December that only got worse when their starting goaltender was injured.  Three games against Boston is Montreal’s only remaining hope - anything less than a full sweep of those games would all but eliminate the Habs all on their own.  Montreal also has two remaining games against the Rangers and close the season in Toronto, so even if Montreal isn’t in the playoffs they will have a huge say in who is.

New York Islanders face a goaltending dilemma as long as Rick DiPietro is injured.  The good news is that he looks set to return.  The bad news is in his absence the Islanders went from being solidly in the playoffs to fighting for their lives.  Their schedule difficulty ranks in the middle of the pack, easier than Tampa Bay, Toronto and Boston but harder than Florida, Montreal, Carolina or the Rangers.  Ryan Smyth has had more of an impact on the Oilers (no victories since he left) than on the Islanders since the deadline.

Toronto has struggled in games they ’should’ win and done better than expected in games they should have trouble with.  With a schedule more difficult than any team in this race except for the Bruins, the Leafs are likely to fall short.  In another week this should be decided - two games against Buffalo and one against New Jersey don’t leave much room for error.  The games that follow against Carlina, the Islanders and Montreal will only be important if they don’t drop out of the picture before they get there.

Tampa Bay should be solidly in the playoffs but they are not.  How much longer will the Lightning stand behind Tortorella’s “encouragement” tactics of his goaltenders?  Tampa has a pretty tough schedule but they have the largest margin for error, leading this pack of players and even within striking distance of third by catching Atlanta (not likely given the Thrashers’ play since the trade deadline).

New York Rangers have been the only solid team in this race over recent games, due almost exclusively to the play of Henrik Lundqvist.  If that trend continues the Rangers will easily slip into the playoffs, possibly as high as 6th place.  If Lundqvist stumbles, even having (by far) the easiest remaining schedule in this race won’t save the team.  The best team the Rangers have left to play are the Penguins.  Their numerous games against teams in the race include the Islanders (twice), Montreal (twice) and Leafs.  That many “4 point” games could swing things in almost any direction.

Carolina has goaltending issues, though not the issues I long predicted.  Cam Ward has been solid enough but now he’s hurt.  Carolina’s remaining schedule is easier than anyone’s but the Rangers here and they sit in a playoff spot - barely - right now.  The Canes need other teams to stumble but that seems almost certain to happen.  Two games against Tampa Bay will be key.

Greg Logan, Newsday:

After taking a day to reflect on his recent comments about possibly leaving as a free agent if the Islanders don’t sign him by the Feb. 27 NHL trade deadline, Blake yesterday said he didn’t intend to distract from his team’s playoff push or to leave the impression he wants off Long Island.

“I know in my heart that I’m an Islander,” said Blake, who was last to leave Air Canada Centre after practice. “When we’re in a playoff push, I can’t think about the contract.”

Perhaps the veteran is still learning.  The Islanders simply can’t afford that type of distraction if they want to make the playoffs.  Good for Blake for recognizing that fact and owning up to his mistake.

Greg Logan, Newday.com:

“If they don’t want to sign me, maybe they should trade me and get something that’s good for them,” Blake said. “If I’m not signed by the 27th, then I’m going to test the market, and I don’t think I’ll be back.”

At 33, Blake is in the middle of a career season in which he has 27 goals, one short of his career high, and 21 assists to lead the team with 48 points. Currently making $1.56 million, Blake is seeking a five-year deal likely worth somewhere in the vicinity of $18 million.

To me, that’s the sort of thing you say in private to your GM, never in public.  I know the Islanders are a long shot to make the playoffs, and I respect Blake being honest, but it has to be all about the team.  Blake should not be complaining because they haven’t reached a deal yet.  He obviously is willing (eager?) to test the market this summer, and that’s his prerogative.  Why did he have to make it public?

Blake will get some attention this summer, but he didn’t need to bring it on himself at this time.