NHL analysis

Major Additions: Martin Gelinas, Radek Bonk, Greg De Vries

Major Subtractions: Paul Kariya, Timmo Kimmonen, Scott Hartnell, Tomas Vokoun

Analysis

It’s been a sad year for Predators fans. While they had a great season last year they were bounced from the playoffs earlier than hoped and then had to suffer through the uncertainty of the almost-sale and relocation of the team. While a recent intent to purchase from a group of local investors appears to have offered stability at least for the short term, the specifics of the deal - notably the involvement of one named “Boots” who has made no secret of his desire to move a franchise to Kansas City - should at least make the faithful nervous. Even worse, in a desire to cut payroll and losses, the Predators have parted with virtually the entire core of their recent success. Steve Sullivan remains but will miss several months of the season due to surgery!

Nashville is in real danger of missing the playoffs this year - terrible slide for a team that challenged for the President’s Trophy for much of the past season. Not merely the players they’ve lost but the attitude of their owners will likely result in a massive backwards slide. Sure, they still boast Chris Mason, statistically one of the top 5 goalies in the league last year though dangerously unproven; yes, they have a number of exciting and solid young players like Alexander Radulov. However, they lost their captain, their starting goaltender and their leading scorer in a single summer. The players have to know the future of the team is uncertain at best, and they also have to know they’re no longer expected or supposed to be competing for the Cup. Don’t expect a Peter Forsberg to arrive in town at the trade deadline to bolster a cup run.

Key players for San Jose: Patrick Marleau, Evgeny Nabokov, Joe Thornton

Key players for Nashville: Kimmo Timonen, Tomas Vokoun, Paul Kariya

Analysis: Best matchup in the first round.  This series will be epic.

I listed each team’s expected starting goaltender and not their very capable backups because I feel that if either of those two falters, it will be too late for his team to recover.  A fast start will be very important to this series because both are so good, so well put together.  A couple points to consider:

Joe Thornton put together a second straight 90 assist season but his career playoff stats are not flattering: 8 goals, 19 assists for 27 points in 46 games.  Not good enough.

2nd place power play (San Jose) against 3rd ranked penalty kill.

Virtually identical goal differentials.

This will be a close one.  And a fun one to watch.

Prediction: Nashville in seven

NHL.com:

Nashville Predators forward Jordin Tootoo has been suspended for five games, without pay, for striking Dallas Stars defenseman Stephane Robidas during Game #1074 at Nashville, March 17, the National Hockey League announced today.

Under the Collective Bargaining Agreement, and based on his annual average salary, Tootoo will forfeit $16,032.80. The money goes to the Players’ Emergency Assistance Fund.

I’m starting to think more and more that the NHL needs to start taking whatever it feels is “fair” punishment and multiply it by about 5 or so.  Here’s why:

In the context of other suspensions, five games feels about right; it might even be considered a little harsh, given that Robidas was obviously on his way over to be less than cordial.  However, let’s consider some other contexts.

How about the context of money?  Tootoo forfeits $16,000 for the games he will miss.  Great, except that Tootoo is currently making $600,000.  Whoopee.

How about the context of impact?  Tootoo - with all due respect intended - could miss the rest of the regular season and it would hardly have an impact on the Predators or anyone else.

How about the context of the purpose of suspensions?  Suspensions aren’t only intended to punish players for their transgressions, they are intended to send a message across the league.  They are intended to make other players think twice before being stupid on the ice.  And the problem is that 1, 3, 5 games just doesn’t send that message.  Players like Tootoo, Cam Janssen and even Chris Neil (not this season) get to sit in the press box for five game stretches even when they’re just not playing well.

Saying a suspension is ‘fair’ or ‘justified’ only takes into account the context of other suspensions.  That’s simply not enough.  For suspensions to be effective and worthwhile they must serve all of their purposes.  They do not do so as currently handed out.

Come on, Colin.  Add a zero to the end of that number next time you’re handing out a suspension.

Here’s an early look at the top and bottom teams in the league thus far. I took the top and bottom teams by winning percentage (taking points divided by possible points) to account for the different number of games played). Here they are, starting with the:

Bottom Three (worst to best)
1. Phoenix Coyotes: 0.200, 1-4-0
The Phoenix Coyotes expected so much out of this season, but so far they are coming up worse than flat. With only a single win and two points in 5 games, the Coyotes are already working hard at digging themselves a hole. Rumours have unsurprisingly started swirling that the Desert Dogs are seeking depth in goal and are looking to move Mike Comrie in return. Don’t count out Curtis Joseph, however. Cujo proved last year he’s got at least a year or two left in him, and he’s mentally tough enought to bounce back from a tough start. I’ll bet he’s wishing he’d come back to Toronto however (did someone say déja vu?). With forwards like Shane Doan and Ladislav Nagy up front and the addition of Ed Jovanoski on the blueline, the Coyotes have to be expected to improve on their poor start. However, from what I’ve heard of Jovo-cop, his defensive liabilities are likely to continue rather than go away. That doesn’t bode well for the future of the Coyotes.

2. Nashville: 0.250, 1-3-0
Wow, these guys are sure surprising a lot of people, and not in a good way. Expected by many (myself included) to overtake Detroit for the division, take a serious run at the Conference title, and fight their way deep into the playoffs, the Predators are not having the start they wanted. Although obviously still very early, concern is already starting to creep in. Nashville will bounce back, and fast. Their core group, including Paul Kariya and Steve Sullivan, know that this year’s team may be their best chance to win a Stanley Cup. They won’t squander their chance without a fight.

3. Philadelphia Flyers: 0.300, 1-3-1
A tough team, but not looking so scary this far. When Peter Forsberg plays like the best player in the league, watch out. When he doesn’t, well then the Flyers look more like the too-slow goons that fell apart in the playoffs las season. Hatcher and Rat- woops, nevermind. The good news for Flyers fans has to be Joni Pitkanen, tied for second in the league with 5 points (all assists) in 5 games. Although his minus-4 rating is less encouraging. But the real trouble is in goal, with Robert Esche his usual inconsistent self and Antero Niitimaki playing through the pain and taking cortisone shots to avoid surgery. Love the guy playing through the pain but I’m not sold on this guy even when he’s healthy. The rumours are swirling about Bobby Clarke looking at Ilya Brygalov (getting yanked tonight won’t help Bryzgalov earn a starting job, whether in Anaheim, Philly or elsewhere). Clarke has denied that he’s looking for help in goal, but of course, with Clarke that virtually guarantees that he really is. If Niitymaki struggles Clarke may be forced to make a move, though he will undoubtedly not be happy with the almost certain asking price - of of the young Mike Richards or Jeff Carter being the most sought after.

Runner up:
- Boston Bruins (also 1-3-1): Tim Thomas and Hannu Toivonen have struggled. Marc Savard has struggled. Zdeno Chara has been unable to turn around a porous blueline. The early signs are not good, especially with the other division teams being so strong.

Additions: Jason Arnott, Josef Vasicek

Subtractions: Denis Arkhipov, Mark Eaton, Darren Haydar, Mike Sillinger, Brendan Witt, Scott Walker, Adam Hall, Danil Markov, Greg Johnson, Yannic Perrault (expected)

Analysis

Nashville has had a young, fast team for a number of years now, and they’ve quietly continued to build their team up for as long as they’ve been in the league. They resigned a large number of their key free agents over the summer, though a significant number of players left for other cities, as well. Markov, Sillinger, Witt (though he was a rental player) and especially Johnson will all be missed. I was very surprised the Preds couldn’t find room for Johnson in their lineup. He was a team leader, played in all types of game situations, and was a very solid and cheap pickup for divisional rival Detroit.

Jason Arnott is something of a gamble, but I think it will pay off. Nashville is a fairly low pressure hockey city, and Arnott is a very good player. He has been constantly knocked throughout his career, mostly in my opinion because fans expect a big, strong, skilled player like him to dominate game in and game out. He’s not a player who will win the Stanley Cup himself, and true, he’s never produced the way he’s been expected to. But he certainly has the capability to score, and to put up points, and he’ll have every opportunity to do so in Nashville. He’ll further have the opportunity to be the number one center, whereas in Dallas, no matter how well he did, he would also be second fiddle. So Nashville hopefully will be a good fit, offering him plenty of ice time, good linemates, and a little less pressure than most first line centers receive.

Vokoun will be the starter, of course, but during his injury late last season Chris Mason proved he could step up and fill in. Vokoun this year will have a bit of competition for that top spot. Though the league seems filled to the brim will goaltenders right now, Mason could also be moved if the right offer comes along during the next season. And of couse depth at goal is never a bad thing (ask the Atlanta Thrashers).

Nashville will face a bit stiffer competition in their division, but they have a legitimate shot at surpassing Detroit to claim the Central title. Can they make a splash in the playoffs? I would say they have a ways to go, yet. They were beaten soundly by a much deeper San Jose club last year, and the departure of Witt and Markov significantly hurt their depth on the blueline. Arnott should have a strong season, but his presence does not significantly deepen the team. In fact, when coupled with the loss of Sillinger and Johnson, the Thrashers are thinner up the middle than they were last season - though stronger on the top line.

Look for good things in the regular season, but don’t bet on a deep playoff run.