NHL analysis

Major Additions: Roman Hamrlik, Bryan Smolinski, Patrice Brisebois, Tom Kostopolous

Major Subtractions: David Abeischer, Sheldon Souray, Radek Bonk, Mike Johnson, Sergei Samsonov

Analysis

What will be the story for the Canadiens this year - their inability to land a free agent forward or the continuing growth of their young talent?

It remains unclear whether blue-chip prospect Carey Price will be given the chance to share the pipes with Christobel Huet or sent back to the farm club for further seasoning. The good news is that the other alternative, Jaroslav Halak, played admirably at the end of last season as the Habs made a late push towards the playoffs. The failure of that push cannot be laid at the feet of Halak.

Despite the presence of three quality goaltenders, the crease situation in Montreal is not as clear as it may appear. Huet has been stellar since he came out of nowhere to steal the job of Jose Theodore two years ago, but it cannot be ignored that the tailspin that cost the Habs a playoff spot last year came well before Huet was injured. Halak was brilliant but has a grand total of 16 games NHL experience. Price is already being hailed as the future of the franchise but has never played a regular season game in the NHL. Still, you have to believe at least one of these goaltenders can provide what Montreal needs.

Up front not much has changed. The loss of Johnson and Bonk will be felt on penalty kill, though Smolinski will help alleviate their loss while providing a little more punch offensively. The Habs have to hope they stay healthy and (especially) get more out of Alexei Kovalev. They have the talent to score goals - it’s just a question of experience, depth and health.

On the blueline, Hamrlik may not have Souray’s cannon from the point but he’s no slouch offensively and will be much more responsible in his own end - on balance a definite improvement. Craig Rivet didn’t play much last year (either injured or benched) and the team is hoping the loss of his experience and leadership will be offset by the return of Brisebois.

Enough improvement to make the playoffs? My gut says no. It’s not so much that the Habs aren’t a quality team; it’s just that their improvements are marginal at best while teams like Florida added more. If the Canadiens can regain and maintain the specialty teams form with which they started last year with, however, they will be a force to be reckoned with.

I’ll admit it - I’ve been eagerly looking forward to Saturday night’s Habs-Leafs matchup as the deciding factor in who sneaks in to 8th.  Then I took a look at the standings and tonight’s matchups, and realized it might not matter.

If the Leafs fall one more point behind the Habs, then it’s all over for them.  The Islanders, on the other hand, are all but eliminated but they won’t quit until the math says it really is impossible.  That could also happen tonight but it hasn’t happened yet.

The point is that no team can afford to look beyond its next game at this time of year.  Worrying about the Habs could leave the Leafs looking forward to nothing.

As I write this, the teams seeded 1 through 8 in both the Eastern and Western conferences have more wins than any of their competitors who are on the outside looking in. Even if Toronto finishes the season 3-0 while Montreal finishes with three losses, the 8th and 9th place teams in the East would still be tied with 41 wins each.  In other words, while there would be some position jockeying if the NHL threw out the 3 point games and simply recorded wins and losses, exactly the same 16 teams would qualify for the playoffs.
The extra point for losing in overtime (or the shootout) is supposed to reward teams in close games and encourage them to ‘go for it’ rather than playing for the tie. Unfortunately, all this does is inflate the points of teams with extra helpings of skill or luck in shootouts while encouraging teams to play for the tie in the final minutes of regulation rather than in OT.

It also rewards teams for losing, as long as they don’t lose in regulation. Detroit and Anaheim, currently sitting 1st and 3rd in league standings, each have lost 12 games after the third period.

Dumping the extra point for losing in OT would simplify the standings for new(er) fans, reward teams for winning and nothing else (losing in OT in the playoffs doesn’t get you anywhere, does it?) and would simply make sense.

For all those (myself very much included) who complain about the scheduling format of the NHL, there are times when it is obvious the guys in charge got at least some parts of it sooooo right.

As of right this instant, it’s looking like the playoff race in the East is down to two teams - Toronto and Montreal - fighting for the 8th spot.  The Hurricanes and Islanders are all but finished while the Rangers and Lightning have all but clinched their spots.  Carolina and Long Island sit 4 points out of 8th with 4 games each left to play, and they would have to jump over both Toronto and Montreal to get in.

Once you’re convinced that it’s more or less a two horse race, take a peak at the schedule.  Look ahead about one week, to April the 7th.  What’s that?  Montreal in Toronto?  Damn straight!

I’m already looking forward to next Saturday night.

Here’s a look at the Eastern Conference race for the final three playoff spots, in order of least likely to most likely to make the playoffs (ordered by using my Predicted Final Standings as of March 20, 2007):

Boston is all but finished.  They sit with 73 points, 11 games left, with by far the toughest schedule of any of the teams fighting for a spot.  The weakest team that Boston plays is Montreal (three times in fact).  The best Boston can hope for is to play spoiler (two wins against Montreal would help the teams above them quite a bit).

Florida is further out but has a very slightly higher chance.  They have 73 points but only 10 games to play.  They get the bonus of playing Philadelphia and Washington, as well as Atlanta, Tampa Bay (twice) and Carolina (twice).  Given their strong play since the trade deadline, Florida remains a long shot but not out of the question.

Montreal is tied with two teams at 78 points, but they’ve played one game more than Toronto and two more than the Islanders.  They’ve been in a tailspin since December that only got worse when their starting goaltender was injured.  Three games against Boston is Montreal’s only remaining hope - anything less than a full sweep of those games would all but eliminate the Habs all on their own.  Montreal also has two remaining games against the Rangers and close the season in Toronto, so even if Montreal isn’t in the playoffs they will have a huge say in who is.

New York Islanders face a goaltending dilemma as long as Rick DiPietro is injured.  The good news is that he looks set to return.  The bad news is in his absence the Islanders went from being solidly in the playoffs to fighting for their lives.  Their schedule difficulty ranks in the middle of the pack, easier than Tampa Bay, Toronto and Boston but harder than Florida, Montreal, Carolina or the Rangers.  Ryan Smyth has had more of an impact on the Oilers (no victories since he left) than on the Islanders since the deadline.

Toronto has struggled in games they ’should’ win and done better than expected in games they should have trouble with.  With a schedule more difficult than any team in this race except for the Bruins, the Leafs are likely to fall short.  In another week this should be decided - two games against Buffalo and one against New Jersey don’t leave much room for error.  The games that follow against Carlina, the Islanders and Montreal will only be important if they don’t drop out of the picture before they get there.

Tampa Bay should be solidly in the playoffs but they are not.  How much longer will the Lightning stand behind Tortorella’s “encouragement” tactics of his goaltenders?  Tampa has a pretty tough schedule but they have the largest margin for error, leading this pack of players and even within striking distance of third by catching Atlanta (not likely given the Thrashers’ play since the trade deadline).

New York Rangers have been the only solid team in this race over recent games, due almost exclusively to the play of Henrik Lundqvist.  If that trend continues the Rangers will easily slip into the playoffs, possibly as high as 6th place.  If Lundqvist stumbles, even having (by far) the easiest remaining schedule in this race won’t save the team.  The best team the Rangers have left to play are the Penguins.  Their numerous games against teams in the race include the Islanders (twice), Montreal (twice) and Leafs.  That many “4 point” games could swing things in almost any direction.

Carolina has goaltending issues, though not the issues I long predicted.  Cam Ward has been solid enough but now he’s hurt.  Carolina’s remaining schedule is easier than anyone’s but the Rangers here and they sit in a playoff spot - barely - right now.  The Canes need other teams to stumble but that seems almost certain to happen.  Two games against Tampa Bay will be key.

The Montreal Canadiens have been steadily improving over the last few seasons, and I for one feel that GM Bob Gainey is extremely under-valued for the job he does. While I don’t agree with all of his decisions (*cough* Samsonov!) I am happy to see a Canadian franchise playing well now while still maintaining an eye to the future. Here are a few highlights of Gainey’s reign:

Best Coaching Staff in the NHL
I’m not just talking about the head coach here, though an argument could certainly be made for Guy Carboneau being the best young coach in the league. What I’m really impressed with is how well Kirk Muller, Doug Jarvais and Roland Melanson have done with this team, particularly on special teams. This team is simply among the best led in the league, managing to squeeze some production even out of the likes of Alexei Kovalev, Sergei Samsonov and more. Even more impressive is that this team wins even when two thirds of its second line - and the two players in question here are paid like first liners - aren’t scoring, this team still wins.

Gives up Little when Trading
Janne Niinimaa hasn’t been all that great and Mike Ribeiro has surged in Dallas. But few people have any problem with this trade, even in hindsight. Gainey helped his team significantly in the short term (remember how banged-up the blueline was at the time of this trade) and while Ribeiro has had some success in Dallas, it will be perfectly in character for his production to wax and wane.

Perhaps losing Jose Theodore is even a better example. Gainey convinced the Avalanche to take on a huge risk and a huge salary when they swapped David Abeischer for Theodore, and at times it looked like Colorado had made another steal. Theodore played like a Hart Trophy winner in the first round of last year’s playoffs and the Canadiens have ridden Christobel Huet and not Abeischer for most of this year. However, Huet was a question mark and having an experienced goaltender to back him up was smart and had no negatives. Make no mistake: Abeischer will likely be gone after this season and Montreal will have nothing to show for the trade that sent Theodore away.

Oh yeah, except for $5 million in cap space and cash next year.

High Risk Additions Without Subtraction
I would not have signed Samsonov, certainly not for $3.5 million per season. However, Gainey is brilliant at taking risks without giving up his future. The Habs gave up zero, zip, nada to give Samsonov a try in a summer when top 6 forwards were nowhere to be found. If Samsonov truly turns into a car wreck, Gainey can throw him on waivers and try plan B without having to watch the player he sent away blossom in another city.

The upcoming summer is a huge one for the short-term future of this franchise, and Montreal fans should be breating a sigh of relief for having such a smart man at the helm. With Craig Rivet, Sheldon Souray, Andrei Markov and Janne Niinimaa all slated for unrestricted free agency this summer, the very solid blueline the team features this year could be mostly or even entirely gone by September (this is the primary reason, by the way, that I object to Samsonov’s contract. Imagine how useful that $3.5 million could be when trying to sign Souray).

If only John Ferguson Jr. could manage to trade himself for Gainey.

Notable Additions: Sergei Samsonov, Johnson

Subtractions: Sundstrom, Richard Zednik

Analysis

Montreal last season was a textbook example of how important goaltending is to success in the NHL. The early season success of Theodore meant that Montreal started the season off very well. When Theodore faltered, so did the Habs.

Huet and Abeischer is a solid if unspectacular tandem for next season. If either of those guys, or the two of them in combination, can play as well as Huet did down the stretch last year, then the Canadiens will have success. However, Abeischer had plenty of opportunity in Colorado and was insufficient (disclaimer: I don’t envy him trying to be the number 1 after Patrick Roy retired). Huet came out of nowhere and while he played well last year, it’s quite a jump to assume he’ll be anywhere near as successful in the upcoming season. Despite having two veteran goaltenders, I see the Habs as having among the least stability in this position around the league.

Not much has really changed in Montreal. Johnson is an underrated player that should make an impact immediately and be a steady presence. Signing Samsonov for $3.5 million per year was a mistake. This guy is frighteningly skilled, very fast and has big “P” potential. But he has never established himself as a real first line winger. Is a #2 winger worth $3.5 million a season? I don’t think so.

Still, it was a gamble that could well pay off. If he develops some good chemistry with Koivu and Kovalev, that would make a first line no one will want to face. I just think that Samsonov was extremely overrated this offseason and benefited from a fairly weak pool of UFA forwards.

Like Buffalo, Montreal will have to face a division that overall got stronger this summer. They barely squeaked into the playoffs last year. I would predict that Gainey will have to make further changes to the team next year for the Habs to squeeze in again. And he very well could do it. I just wouldn’t count on the current squad to be playing together in the second season.