NHL analysis

Major Additions: Eric Belanger, Sean Hill

Major Subtractions: Sean Hill, Todd White, Manny Fernandez

Analysis

After an oddly busy summer a year ago, the Wild stood mostly still this year. However, that’s not particularly surprising if you consider their philosophy and their recent results.

If Marian Gaborik and Pavol Demitra can stay healthy, the Wild should be able to easily improve on their totals. They have a solid if unproven goaltending tandem in Josh Harding and Nicklas Backstrom and perhaps the best team defence attitude in the league.

On the flip side, it’s hard to see how much further the Wild can go with their current roster. They’ve added virtually nothing to their roster (Sean Hill was suspended late last season for violating the substance abuse program and may never play for Minnesota) and it’s difficult to imagine them getting better goaltending. Having Gaborik in the lineup for closer to an entire year will certainly help, but they don’t seem to have the depth to handle an injury - which is bad news for a team that supposedly is ready for a deep playoff run.

Minnesota is not a team I’d like to face in the playoffs but they wouldn’t scare me much, either. And that sums up the team in the regular season, as well - not someone you look forward to playing against but not someone who frightens you , either.

Key players for Minnesota: Marian Gaborik, Pavol Demitra, Niklas Backstrom

Key players for Anaheim: Scott Niedermayer, Chris Pronger, Teemu Selanne

Analysis: This will be one hell of a matchup.  Minnesota plays boring hockey spiced up with a few explosive players.  Anaheim is a powerhouse, with two strong goaltenders and the best 1-2 punch on the blueline the NHL has to offer.  The Wild are going to be scrappy, hard-working, unwilling to give an inch.  The Ducks need one thing: they need their best players to be the best players on the ice.

There are no surprises to be had here.  Sure, second tier guys like Ryan Getzlaf will have to step up but this team belongs to Giguerre, Pronger, Niedermayer and Selanne.  If those four start falling to injury or don’t outplay their counterparts opposite the ice, Minnesota will triumph.  The good news is all four are proven performers.  There are no soft players or known playoff chokers in this lineup.

The lack of depth behind Pronger and Niedermayer will likely be exploited, especially in Minnesota where the Wild have the last change.  Will it be enough?

Prediction: Anaheim in six

Canada.com:

Minnesota is the one team that scares you. They’ve got [Marian] Gaborik, who’s a game-breaker, they’ve played some of the best hockey in the league lately and they’re better than they’ve ever been, even the year they went three rounds [’03 again].

He makes some very good points throughout the article. Anaheim looks frightening but they really lack depth. Imagine Anaheim without Scott Niedermayer, Chris Pronger or Teemu Selanne. Of course, any team that loses a guy of that caliber would suffer, but the Ducks are probably the most top-heavy team in the league. Their young players have been excellent but do you want to rely on them in the playoffs?

I still like Nashville, though they haven’t adjusted to Peter Forsberg’s arrival as quickly as I would have liked. They remind me of Carolina last season - three very deep scoring lines, big up the middle, with a blueline stuffed with some underrated and very solid guys. I also like them because they have a number of players - Paul Kariya and Steve Sullivan come to mind - for whom this year might be their best chance. They don’t want to waste that. They’ll be hungry.

Side question: if you’re Dallas, how worried are you about Marty Turco? His playoff performance has been terrible so far and he’s set to eat up a hefty $5.7 million for another three years. How many more chances can you afford to give him if he can’t break out of his playoff funk?

Continuing my early look at the NHL season, this time with the

Top Three
An easy three choices, with the Dallas Stars, Minnesota Wild and Buffalo Sabres all sporting five straight victories.

Dallas Stars
The Dallas Stars made the dubious decision to strip the captain’s ‘C’ from Mike Modano, passing to newly re-signed Brendan Morrow. I say dubious because even if Morrow is the best leader on the team, taking the C away from Modano is an insult and an embarassment, and Modano deserves better. If Morrow truly was the better leader, he wouldn’t need the C on his jersey to do so. On the plus side, the Stars still sport Marty Turco, Sergei Zubov and the majority of the team that finished 2nd last year in the Western Conference. Underachieving Bill Guerin was bought-out (no response from the Stars so far, so it doesn’t look like they’ll be paying me $2 million to not play for them this year), replaced by injury-prone Eric Lindros. The move thus far seems to have paid off, as Lindros is leading the team in points and has looked good playing on Modano’s wing. Oh, and Jussi Jokinen had the shootout winner last night. Surprise surprise.

Regular season success, of course, means little to Dallas, given their recent playoff implosions. The real test for the Stars doesn’t come until April (although I for one am curious to see if they can stay ahead of the vastly improved Ducks and Sharks in the standings).

Minnesota Wild
The success of the Wild makes me happy. Fewer franchices are as deserving as Minnesota for playoff hockey, and it looks like this year could be the year. The addition of Pavol Demitra and the resigning of Marian Gaborik has benefited the team a great deal. Manny Fernandez has not faltered in the least under the pressure of being the sole and undisputed starter. The injury to defenceman Pascal Dupuis won’t help, but having early games with players out of the lineup generally helps teams to build character and the Wild are a very strong team’s team. They wouldn’t fall apart due to any single player’s absence.

The Division is very, very tough, quite possibly the best in the league, and the Wild will have a difficult season. But they’ll also ensure that the teams they face have the same problem.

Buffalo Sabres
A team with a mission. The Sabres are out to prove they weren’t one-hit wonders last year, and so far they’re suceeding. Miller has looked absolutely tremendous (no sophomore slump so far. He’s probably waiting for Biron to get traded before he falls apart). The Sabres don’t have a single bona-fide top line guy (several are making serious cases for themselves), but their depth through all four lines is unparalleled. They come at you in waves and don’t stop for anything.

The Sabres, like the Wild, play in a very tough division. They also have had a very easy schedule so far. The remainder of their schedule will be a much tougher test, and will give a more accurate impression of just how good this young team really is.

runner up:
Anaheim Ducks: If the Dallas-Anaheim shootout had gone the other way last night, the Ducks and Stars positions would be reversed. The strength of the Ducks is obviously the blueline, with proven stars Chris Pronger and Scott Niedermayer and rising star Francois Beachemin as quite probably the best top three in the league (certainly the first two are the best 1-2). Ilya Bryzgalov didn’t do himself any favours with his recent, very poor performance (why or why did I trade to get him my pool?) but Giguere has been very, very good. I’m not convinced the forwards are good enough to compete. Is the blueline good enough so that that won’t matter?

Additions: Keith Carney, Pavol Demitra, Kim Johnsson, Mark Parrish, Branko Radivojevic, Wyatt Smith

Subtractions: Filip Kuba, Patrick O’Sullivan, Randy Robitaille, Daniel Tjarnavist, Andrei Zyuzin, Kyle Wanvig, Andrei Nazarov

Analysis

Minnesota is a team on the upswing. I for one am glad about that, as the fans in Minnesota have been very patient thus far. A number of years of slow, patient building and defence first team philosophy have kept the Wild from being much of a party to watch or cheer on. With star forward Marion Gaborik only a short year away from unrestricted free agency, management knew they had to make a splash this summer, and splash they did.

First they acquired Gaborik’s countryman and friend Pavol Demitra from the L.A. Kings, a move that cost them a promising prospect and a high draft pick. The move should pay off immediately however, and the Wild still boast considerable up and coming depth at all positions on the ice. However, prospects and picks are one thing, and an established scorer like Demitra is another thing altogether. He should have immediate chemistry with Gaborik and the two should both have fantastick years.

The Wild also managed to woo Mark Parish and Kim Johnsson over to long-term contracts. Johnsson is a very capable puck moving defenceman, although his health must be a concern. He missed about half the season last year with a concussion, and those injuries never really dissapear. If he stays healthy, however, $4.85 million per year is a bargain considering what other blueliners were getting this summer. Parish was probably overpaid but he’s been a consistent goal scorer through his career (173 goals in 518 games) and if he improves with the significant ice time and responsability he’s likely to see this year, he’ll be a bargain for years to come.

In goal, Manny Fernandez is an excellent young goaltender who’s development had progressed sufficiently to allow the trading of the older Roloson to the Oilers last year. This will also give the younger goaltenders in the system an opportunity to get some NHL experience.

In many ways the Wild are a similar team to the Calgary flames - defence first but with a few offensive studs, solid goaltending and a team oriented plan. While the defence in Minnesota is not as experienced or deep as in Calgary, the Wild still managed to be tied for 4th in the league for goals against. Their only problem was scoring enough goals. Locking up Gaborik and adding Demitra, Johnsson and Parish will help in that department.

Minnesota will need to work hard to make the playoffs next year, but I think they deserve a spot. If they played in either of the other Western Conference divisions I would call them a lock to make the second season, but all 5 teams in the Northwest can be said to have legitimate shots at cracking the top 8. And while it’s technically possible for all 5 to make it, the 8 intra-division games virtually guarrantee that that will not happen. I would expect Minnesota to leapfrog over Colorado and possibly Edmonton, and even Calgary and Vancouver are not out of reach. They will be a longshot once the playoffs roll around, however, with not nearly enough experience on the team to carry them very far.