NHL analysis

Major Additions: Tomas Vokoun, Brett McLean, Richard Zednik, Radek Dvorak

Major Subtractions: Alex Auld, Martin Gelinas, Gary Roberts, Joe Niewendyk

Analysis

The addition of Vokoun, acquired at the entry draft for nothing but draft picks, rivals the re-signing of restricted free agent Stephen Weiss for the best moves made by the Panthers over the summer.

Florida missed the playoffs by 6 points but played very well down the stretch, even after the trade deadline that saw veteran Gary Roberts moved in what normally signals a team “giving up.”

The bad news is virtually nothing remains of the trade that saw All-Star netminder Roberto Luongo depart town. The good news is that the team retains several young players with superstar potential, notably the aforementioned Weiss but perhaps more importantly defenceman Jay Bouwmeester - expect to see the impending RFA resigned sometime this season, by the way. If the Buffalo Sabres have done nothing else this summer, you can bet they’ve taught the GM’s of the league the danger of leaving top RFA’s unprotected.

I don’t see enough veteran leadership on this team for them to make much noise in the playoffs but I can certainly see them picking up some playoff experience before the hockey year is up. One thing that may scare potential first round opponents: the Panthers currently sit at about $42 million in payroll, giving them ample room to pick up some extra help if they decide to.

Even when they win, even when they have as good a chance as any other team in the league of hoisting Stanley’s mug in a few weeks.  Sad.

Why do we keep hearing about Kansas City and Las Vegas, again?

Here’s a look at the Eastern Conference race for the final three playoff spots, in order of least likely to most likely to make the playoffs (ordered by using my Predicted Final Standings as of March 20, 2007):

Boston is all but finished.  They sit with 73 points, 11 games left, with by far the toughest schedule of any of the teams fighting for a spot.  The weakest team that Boston plays is Montreal (three times in fact).  The best Boston can hope for is to play spoiler (two wins against Montreal would help the teams above them quite a bit).

Florida is further out but has a very slightly higher chance.  They have 73 points but only 10 games to play.  They get the bonus of playing Philadelphia and Washington, as well as Atlanta, Tampa Bay (twice) and Carolina (twice).  Given their strong play since the trade deadline, Florida remains a long shot but not out of the question.

Montreal is tied with two teams at 78 points, but they’ve played one game more than Toronto and two more than the Islanders.  They’ve been in a tailspin since December that only got worse when their starting goaltender was injured.  Three games against Boston is Montreal’s only remaining hope - anything less than a full sweep of those games would all but eliminate the Habs all on their own.  Montreal also has two remaining games against the Rangers and close the season in Toronto, so even if Montreal isn’t in the playoffs they will have a huge say in who is.

New York Islanders face a goaltending dilemma as long as Rick DiPietro is injured.  The good news is that he looks set to return.  The bad news is in his absence the Islanders went from being solidly in the playoffs to fighting for their lives.  Their schedule difficulty ranks in the middle of the pack, easier than Tampa Bay, Toronto and Boston but harder than Florida, Montreal, Carolina or the Rangers.  Ryan Smyth has had more of an impact on the Oilers (no victories since he left) than on the Islanders since the deadline.

Toronto has struggled in games they ’should’ win and done better than expected in games they should have trouble with.  With a schedule more difficult than any team in this race except for the Bruins, the Leafs are likely to fall short.  In another week this should be decided - two games against Buffalo and one against New Jersey don’t leave much room for error.  The games that follow against Carlina, the Islanders and Montreal will only be important if they don’t drop out of the picture before they get there.

Tampa Bay should be solidly in the playoffs but they are not.  How much longer will the Lightning stand behind Tortorella’s “encouragement” tactics of his goaltenders?  Tampa has a pretty tough schedule but they have the largest margin for error, leading this pack of players and even within striking distance of third by catching Atlanta (not likely given the Thrashers’ play since the trade deadline).

New York Rangers have been the only solid team in this race over recent games, due almost exclusively to the play of Henrik Lundqvist.  If that trend continues the Rangers will easily slip into the playoffs, possibly as high as 6th place.  If Lundqvist stumbles, even having (by far) the easiest remaining schedule in this race won’t save the team.  The best team the Rangers have left to play are the Penguins.  Their numerous games against teams in the race include the Islanders (twice), Montreal (twice) and Leafs.  That many “4 point” games could swing things in almost any direction.

Carolina has goaltending issues, though not the issues I long predicted.  Cam Ward has been solid enough but now he’s hurt.  Carolina’s remaining schedule is easier than anyone’s but the Rangers here and they sit in a playoff spot - barely - right now.  The Canes need other teams to stumble but that seems almost certain to happen.  Two games against Tampa Bay will be key.

I’m leaving the game notes I posted up but I stopped taking any down at the end of the second period. The game was over after 40 minutes and I’ll keep this post-game wrap up short, mentioning only the biggest things that are cause for concern.

The same sort of game as the last time the Leafs played the Panthers: Florida is not a bad team but they’re a team the Leafs aught to beat, especially with the standings as close as they are right now. Despite this, the Leafs haven’t shown up for either of the past two games against the Panthers. They took them too lightly after their big win over the Rangers and the result was an embarrassing loss to a team 9 points and 7 spots below them in the standings.

When the tough got going, the Leafs… fell apart: Everyone has a bad period from time to time. What the Leafs needed to do after their poor showing in the first 20 minutes was tighten up their game and keep it simple from then on out. Instead, they continued to make mistakes and in fact mostly got worse as the game wore on. Mistakes are not leading to a simple, careful game, they are leading to more mistakes.

I don’t mind the Leafs losing games but their emotional fragility is disturbing. They can’t afford to fold when adversity sets in because it’s going to come knocking time and time again. If they think they’re good enough to trounce teams like the Rangers often enough to make the playoffs, they need a big wake up call.

*read from bottom to top*

- 7:15 left in the second period: the Panthers dump the puck in hard and look who is the first player in to touch the puck - Gary Roberts. This is what has been consistently missing from the Leafs forechecking. They sometimes attempt to carry the puck in and sometimes dump it, but rarely seem to have a plan behind their rushes. Dumping the puck only leads to a prolonged forecheck if one or more teamates skate hard to beat the opposition to the puck.

- The Leafs claimed over the past few days they’ve learned from their recent slide, which came frequently from late collapses. Flopping in the last minute of the first period is almost as deflating as doing so in the last period of the game, so I for one will be very interested in how they respond after giving up two goals like they just did.

- Hal Gill apparently decided he didn’t want McCabe to feel too bad about that awful giveaway, and did him one bet- err, worse. With less than a minute left, you have to be smarter than that - just play it safe, ice the puck if you have to, but get it out of danger.

- Carlo Colaiacovo does not look like a defenceman who hasn’t played in the NHL in almost an entire year. And that’s a good thing for those keeping track :).

- I cringed when I saw the line of Matt Stajan, Alex Steen and Wade Belak, but it looked good so far. Steen and Stajan both have some offensive instincts and Belak is scary enough (at least to the Panthers, who have no real heavyweight to throw out against him) to give the young S’s some room.

- Leafs score just as their first power play expires. It’s funny - the power play looked inefective, with the Blue’n'White skating and working hard but having trouble getting set up. Then they score on what wasn’t really all that dangerous of a shot (the pass to Ponikarovsky in the slot was the dangerous play there, though the threat of that obviously helped to pull Belfour out of position and the Leafs won’t complain about the result)

- Bryan McCabe just made perhaps the worst giveaway I have ever seen, and forced Andrew Raycroft to make a nice save to bail his defenceman out.

Additions: Todd Bertuzzi, Alex Auld, Bryan Allen, Ville Peltonen, Ruslan Salei, Ed Belfour

Subtractions: Roberto Luongo, Lukas Krajicek, Jamie McLennan, Jamie Allison, Jon Sim, Serge Payer

Analysis

Florida is a team that underwent some major renovations since they last played hockey. Gone is all star goaltender Roberto Luongo, the man who played 75 of Florida’s 82 games last season. His replacement will be a mix of Ed Belfour and Alex Auld.

As a Leafs’ fan, I saw plenty of Ed Belfour over the last few years; I thought he was a fantastic goaltender who has had a stalwart career in the NHL. However, his play last year was lacking in consistency and effectiveness. He simply was not the number one goaltender the Leafs needed last year, and though it pains me to say it about such a great athlete, his play was one of the major contributing factors to the Leafs missing the playoffs. The real issue with Belfour may be his willingness to accept less responsability. He’s been known throughout his career as a man who needs to be the undisputed starter, a need that eventually led to his less than happy departure from the Dallas Stars. If he cannot accept less than the main role, and he does not show the consistency needed from that position, then the Panthers may have brought on more than they can handle.

The other half of their goaltending solution for next year is young Alex Auld. Now, as a resident of Thunder Bay, Auld’s hometown, I have been rooting for this guy ever since he broke into the league. I think he’s done an excellent job over the past few years under more pressure than is good for a young goaltender when Dan Cloutier has been injured. If Belfour is the short term solution, Auld is certainly the long term, and I think he may be the best piece Florida got in return for Luongo.

The other piece of that puzzle was, of course, Todd Bertuzzi. I feel that Bertuzzi was somewhat a victim of bad luck. Had Moore not be so baddly injured, I doubt Bertuzzi would have received more than a slap on the wrist. However, we don’t live in a hypothetical world. Whether Moore cheap-shotted Naslund or not is also accademic. Bertuzzi beat up on a kid and has since been rallying point for the fans and players of every city he visits. While he should escape most of the attention down in Florida (and not playing four games in Colorado every year will help), he’s still very much a marked man. Had I been the Mike Keenan, I would have insisted on less Bertuzzi and more prospects or draft picks. Bertuzzi was a huge gamble, far more than draft picks. He has only one more year on his contract, at a hefty $5+ million to boot, and has a long way to go to deserve that kind of money.

Florida is a team I see going down in the standings next year. Oli Jokinen led the team last year with 89 points. The next man on the list was Nieuwendyk with 56, then Stumpel with 52. No other player on the team broke 50 points. That is a tremendous drop off. Even Atlanta had 4 players with more than 50 points, and three of them had 90+. On the plus side, Jokinen is locked up for four years, Ruslan Salei as well, and Jay Bouwmeester should continue to develop, which should make his $2.175 million a bargain for the next two years. Auld is a young goalie with plenty of experience and a history of performing consistently, even when called upon suddenly. All of this bodes well for the future. But next season? I wouldn’t count on much.