NHL analysis

Major Additions: Dallas Drake, Brian Rafalski

Major Subtractions: Robert Lang, Kyle Calder, Matthieu Schneider

Analysis

Detroit didn’t do much in the off-season but they made smart moves. The team is now firmly built around a younger core, with veterans Lang and Schneider making room for the burgeoning contracts of Pavel Datsyuk, Henrik Zetterberg and Brian Rafalaski.

That being said, the immediate success of this team still rests in the lands of a pair of old-timers. Luckily for Red Wings fans, that pair happens to be Dominic Hasek and Nicklas Lidstrom.

I still don’t agree with or understand the length of contract offered to Datsyuk, and I wonder what the backup plan is should Hasek’s groin give out in the spring. But with the addition of Rafalski and the increased cap space of Lang’s departure, and the commitment they showed last year to resting Hasek’s all-important groin, you have to like the Wings’ chances at least as much as a year ago.

Battle of the big dogs in the West.  Anaheim’s not a surprise to me here but I must say Detroit is.  Of course, Detroit finished first in the Western Conference, missed winning the President’s Trophy by less than a single point, which is very much consistent with their success… well, seems like forever now.  Maybe I have to start giving them a little credit.

If nothing else, I’m tempted to pick the Wings if only because of the three series I’ve been wrong on so far this year, TWO have been picking the Wings to lose.

The Wings will continue to win if they can survive the loss of their number 2 defenceman (Schneider) and continue to play their solid defensive game - limit shots on Hasek, play patiently, make the most of the opportunities as they occur.  I also the Wings being successful if they can lengthen the series - the Ducks have only played 10 games so far in the playoffs and they rely heavily on 6 forwards and 4 defencemen.  Do they have the endurance to last in a long series against a difficult opponent?

The Ducks will win if they succeed where Calgary and San Jose failed - get bodies to the net and get Hasek off his game without taking penalties.  They have the luxury of keeping a Norris candidate on the ice twice as often as Detroit and both of their top two lines have performed very well so far this year.  If this series were starting in Anaheim I think I would pick the Ducks, but with home ice advantage lying with the Wings, Anaheim has an uphill battle to climb with their first serious test this summer.  They also need their core of young players, whom they rely on quite heavily, to play above their level of experience.

Home ice advantage and the unwillingness to be wrong picking Detroit to lose in three straight series has me giving this one to the Wings, but I suspect Anaheim will draw it out to the limit.

My prediction: Detroit in 7

Here are things I’ve noticed about each of the remaining 8 teams:

Buffalo Sabres: Strong, fast, deep, talented - but not very tough.  The Sabres don’t have a particularly gritty team, and the insertion of Tim Connolly onto the fourth line (while obviously the right decision) has only added to that.  I just can’t see the Sabres lasting against a team like San Jose or Anaheim if they were to make the finals.  That being said, I wouldn’t want to be the team to face them or tell them that.

New York Rangers: Just not good enough to beat the Sabre (not that anyone is surprised).  While Henrik Lundqvist has been excellent, and Jaromir Jagr looks like he’s out to prove something, the defence and the second, third and fourth lines simply lack the skill to skate with their opponents.  This is not to say that the Rangers can’t win.  But they’ll have to be very, very patient if they wish to do so.

New Jersey Devils: The Devils are a team that just wins.  Of course it starts with Brodeur, but it continues with everyone from Scott Gomez (10 assists so far in the playoffs) on down.  That being said, they needed overtime to salvage a slit of their opening two home games against the Senators.  As long as Ray Emery can continue to remain within spitting distance of Brodeur’s play, the Devils will be hard pressed to lengthen this series, let alone win it.

Ottawa Senators: So far, the Sens look determined to break their reputation as playoff chokers.  For how long?  They may still fall apart, but it won’t be happening anytime soon.  They still could have used Gary Roberts, but maybe, just maybe, they’ll make do without him.  If I didn’t know any better I’d swear Mike Comrie was playing for a new contract…

Detroit Red Wings: Very nearly went down 2-0 heading to San Jose.  Detroit may just have their hands full with a bigger, faster, strong Sharks team.  The good news is Pavel Datsyuk is playing up to his new contract, Hasek remains one of the best, and the Wings got past the first round.

San Jose Sharks: My current pick for “team to beat” remaining in the playoffs.  The Sharks forwards are so big, so tough, so mean, and so all around goooood it’s almost scary.  Craig Rivet was worth the first round pick the Sharks gave up after all.  And maybe the Sharks should be moving Toskala instead of Nabokov.

Anaheim Ducks: The third and fourth liners are hardly playing.  That’s both the best and worst thing the Ducks could hope for here.  The Ducks have some of the best players in the league on their top two lines and defence pairs, but the rest of their line up is somewhat weaker than that of their opponents.  In long games and long series’, that is potentially worrisome.  Do they have the stamina if they’re only playing half their roster?

Vancouver Canucks: Managed to split the games in Anaheim (which I didn’t think they would) but then dropped game three in Vancouver.  They certainly can’t afford to drop game four, and I’m not sure winning it would be enough, either.  However, I have to give the team credit - how different would the situation be if they hadn’t suffered the injuries to their blueline?

Key players for San Jose: Evgeny Nabokov, Joe Thornton, Jonathan Cheechoo

Key players for Detroit: Dominik Hasek, Todd Bertuzzi, Nicklas Lidstrom

Analysis: I watched most of the San Jose - Nashville series, and I can hardly believe how good the Sharks are.  Their forwards are so big, so strong, so relentless, they just wear down your defencemen until there’s nothing left.  Nashville wasn’t able to get anything going and by the time they rolled into games three and four their blueliners were looking over their shoulders after every play.  Now, they didn’t have to deal with a Norris winner like Lidstrom but Nashville did have a solid, deep blueline.

Detroit’s forwards will have to carry the play because San Jose’s weakest point is most definitely its blueline.  Nabokov is playing with passion and will be tough to beat.  If the Sharks get their power play going, this series could be over almost before it starts.

The good news for Detroit fans is that their team has gotten past the first series hump and Pavel Datsyuk scored more in the first 6 games of the playoffs than in about the previous 25 games.  Look to Detroit to stretch out the series, but the longer it goes, the more the tide will swing in San Jose’s favour.  The Sharks are now my current favourite for the Stanley Cup.

Prediction: San Jose in 6

Key players for Calgary: Jarome Iginla, Miikka Kiprusoff, Kristian Huselius

Key players for Detroit: Dominik Hasek, Pavel Datsyuk, Todd Bertuzzi

Analysis: It all comes down to Hasek.  Is there a single Red Wings fan - anywhere - comfortable with that situation?

The Wings won this year by holding their opponents to an average of under 25 per game.  Can they do that in the playoffs?  If not, can Hasek keep his antics under wraps enough to stop that much rubber?

In the end, the Wings have the same problems they’ve had year after year: they’re not built for the playoffs and their opponents most certainly are.  Before the next few weeks are done, there are going to be major regrets over Datsyuk’s contract.

Of course, Detroit won’t go down easily.  But the longer this series goes, the more the balance will tip in Calgary’s favour.

Prediction: Calgary in six

Pavel Datsyuk has signed a reported 7 year contract extension, rumoured to be in the neighbourhood of $6-7 million per year.

I’m just not so sure about this one. Is he cause or effect for Detroit’s dreadful playoff performances over the past few seasons? He’s certainly a gem, particularly given where he was drafted (round 6, 171st overall in 1998), but his playoff stats are nowhere near what a $6 million player should have. He has only 3 goals and 15 points in 42 career playoff games. That’s just not enough for that kind of money.

On the other hand, if Datsyuk can start to perform in the playoffs like he does in the regular season - he has 87 points this season alone - then this contract could make sense.

I have to call this contract a mistake. Detroit proved this year they can afford to lose big guns with hardly a hiccup in the regular season. They need a playoff performer to build around. Would they have paid Datsyuk any more than $6-7 million if they’d waited until the playoffs were over, even if he was the playoff MVP? If he flops in the playoffs - again - wouldn’t you want to consider other options for that kind of money and term?

As I write this, the teams seeded 1 through 8 in both the Eastern and Western conferences have more wins than any of their competitors who are on the outside looking in. Even if Toronto finishes the season 3-0 while Montreal finishes with three losses, the 8th and 9th place teams in the East would still be tied with 41 wins each.  In other words, while there would be some position jockeying if the NHL threw out the 3 point games and simply recorded wins and losses, exactly the same 16 teams would qualify for the playoffs.
The extra point for losing in overtime (or the shootout) is supposed to reward teams in close games and encourage them to ‘go for it’ rather than playing for the tie. Unfortunately, all this does is inflate the points of teams with extra helpings of skill or luck in shootouts while encouraging teams to play for the tie in the final minutes of regulation rather than in OT.

It also rewards teams for losing, as long as they don’t lose in regulation. Detroit and Anaheim, currently sitting 1st and 3rd in league standings, each have lost 12 games after the third period.

Dumping the extra point for losing in OT would simplify the standings for new(er) fans, reward teams for winning and nothing else (losing in OT in the playoffs doesn’t get you anywhere, does it?) and would simply make sense.

Has it even been a week since the Detroit Red Wings returned to their seemingly perennial position atop the NHL standings?

Heading into the final playoff stretch, Dominik Hasek seems determined to wreak at least as much havoc with his team this year as he did with the Senators last spring.

This is exactly what a team that’s known for regular season success and playoff collapse needs. /sarcasm
It begins, Red Wings fans…