NHL analysis

Major Additions: Ryan Smyth, Scott Hannan

Major Subtractions: Patrice Brisebois, Ken Klee, Pierre Turgeon

Analysis

Colorado made the kind of moves I respect the most. Faced with an immovable Jose Theodore, an aging but still dominant Joe Sakic, and an improving crop of youngsters, they made few changes - but big ones. Ryan Smyth - though arguably not worth the length nor cost of his big contract - was one of if not the best free agents on the market. Scott Hannan received less attention but could be even more important to a blueline still adjusting to the losses of Rob Blake and Adam Foote.

When teams make a large number of big moves - such as the Philadelphia Flyers this summer - there is typically a “letdown” season during which the new team molds itself into a unit. When you replace cogs like Turgeon and Brisebois a few at a time, there is less shock to the system and an easier transition for the new players. Expect big things from the Avalanche this year, IF…

… if Peter Budaj is the real deal. It seems pretty obvious at this point that Theodore is done, at least as a starter in the NHL. He is in the final year of his contract so a resurgence is not out of the question - it would be the only thing that would land him another decent contract - but the Avs cannot count on it. If Budaj falters and Theo fails to pick up the slack, expect to see Colorado seek some outside help - perhaps signing Curtis Joseph or attempting to lure Ed Belfour back from Europe. Note that either goalie would have to clear waivers if signed after the start of the season.

The Avalanche have at most a few seasons left with both their current and future face of the franchise on board. If Budaj does play like a genuine star, look for the Avalanche to begin picking up some veteran additions to make a serious run this summer. That being said, the goaltending situation remains too murky for me personally to count on anything but another fight for the playoffs.

NHL standings as of March 19, 2007 show the Colorado Avalanche a mere 4 points below the 8th place Calgary Flames, with each team having 10 games left to play.

The Denver Post and the Calgary Sun each take a closer look at the Avs run, which has brought them within striking distance of a playoff spot that looked out of reach even a week ago.

First off, I know - thinking of Joe Sakic in any uniform other than that of the Colorado Avalanche (and team Canada, of course) is almost heresy.

Second of all, I want to point out that this post is pure speculation - I have absolutely zero evidence that Colorado has been dangling Sakic or taking calls for him.

Now that that’s out of the way, let’s talk about Joe Sakic and the Colorado Avalanche.

The Avs currently sit in 10th place in the Western Conference, 8 points behind the Minnesota Wild.  Though the playoffs are far from being out of reach, it will take a huge surge to get there and frankly, it doesn’t look all that likely.  With the trade deadline only a few weeks away, Francois Giguere and the Avs are in an unusual situation, and need to make a decision on which of their impending free agents they should move.  The biggest name they could - and I would argue should - make available is Joe Sakic.

Sakic is a natural leader, an experienced performer in the regular season and the playoffs, and would be a huge boost to any team in the league.  He has been among the best players in the NHL for over a decade, can play in any situation, and is among the classiest people the league has known in recent memory.

Now, why would the Avalanche ever consider moving such a player?  Sakic’s impending status as an UFA is one reason; his age is another.  Sakic can arguably only decline from here on out (though he’s definitely not done yet).  His trade value would be huge!

To put things in perspective, the reported asking price for Peter Forsberg is 2 first round draft picks and a roster player (admittedly most GM’s have apparently balked at that price).  Forsberg has not played a full season in over 10 years.  If he’s traded and stays healthy through a single playoff round many will be surprised.  Sakic, on the other hand, has played 81 or more games in 4 of the past 5 seasons.

Francois Giguere should also look back in his own franchise’s recent history to see why trading Sakic would be a good idea.  In recent years, the Avs have watched Patrick Roy, Adam Foote, Rob Blake, Teemu Selanne, Paul Kariya and more leave the team with nothing coming back in return.  While the Avalanche have several promising young players, a couple top level picks or prospects could have a huge impact kick-jumping the re-building/loading phase.

Finally, Sakic is an impending free agent and could be re-signed as early as July 1st.  While it’s always heart-warming to see a franchise player stay his entire career in the city that drafts him, emotions need to be put aside in this sort of situation.  Sakic will do more for the Avalanche by playing for someone else for a few months and returning to a team bolstered by several picks or prospects so the team can look to the future as soon as possible.

If Colorado hasn’t been considering offers for their captain, they should be.  And teams sniffing around the Forsberg sweepstakes would be foolish to not at least give Francois Giguere a call before the trade deadline arrives.  Sakic is worth at least as much as Forsberg and is much less of a gamble.

Additions: Tyler Arnason, Jordan Leopold, Michael Vernace, Matt Murley, Ben Guite, Mark Rycroft, Michal Vernace

Subtractions: Rob Blake, Dan Hinote, Alex Tanguay

Analysis

Colorado is a team undergoing a major changing of the guard at all positions on the ice. It started a few years ago with the retirement of Patrick Roy, continued last summer when Rob Blake left for Columbus and Peter Forseberg departed for the Eastern Conference and marches on this summer with the departure of Rob Blake. To solidify the defence promising young forward Alex Tanguay was shipped to division rival Calgary for rock solid Jordan Leopold. Tyler Arnason, fresh off a very dissapointing stint with the Ottawa Senators (healthy scratch for most of it) was also brought it to add a bit more scoring depth at center. He will have every opportunity to take the #2 center position from Pierre Turgeon, who is really too old to be the #2 guy on a contending team (though he adds class, dependency, experience and more for a very low price).

Trading for Jose Theodore at the deadline last year initially appeared foolish but did pay dividends in the playoffs. Giving up essentially no one (Abeischer was as good as finished in Colorado anyways) for a goaltender who has recently won the Hart Trophy and is locked up for another couple years cost the Avalanche nothing but cap space for the next two years. Theodore played pretty well during the playoffs (certainly outplaying Marty Turco in the first round, though with Turco’s playoff performance that isn’t saying much), enough to get the seventh seeded Avalanche past the highly favoured Dallas Stars. A change in scenary should be good for Theodore, who should bounce back from his very poor season last year. The Avalance can only hope. Moving an inconsistent goaltender making more than $5 million a season is not an easy task.

Colorado will have a tough time making the playoffs next year, but if Theodore holds up they should squeeze in. Sakic is still one of the best players in the league, though he won’t have Tanguay on his wing this year. Mark Svatos, though still unsigned, had 32 goals in 61 games last year before being injured. He will be counted on to step up even more this season. Another young player to keep an eye on is John Michel-Liles. This kid put up 49 points (28 on the power play) playing BEHIND Rob Blake last year. This season he will be the undisputed power play quarterback and should far outpace his previous totals.

Are the emerging youngsters and additions enough to overcome the loss of Blake and Tanguay? Tough to tell. I have a feeling Colorado may well drop out of the playoff picture this year, unless Theodore can recover his form. Although trading for Theodore didn’t cost Colorado much, it did stop them from pursuing a goaltender this summer, from a crop that counted guys like Martin Biron and Manny Legace, both of who could be had for a fraction of Theodore’s $5.3 million. Playing against Calgary, Vancouver, Edmonton and Minesota 8 times each next year will expose the deficiencies this team has not had in many years.