NHL analysis

Continuing my early look at the NHL season, this time with the

Top Three
An easy three choices, with the Dallas Stars, Minnesota Wild and Buffalo Sabres all sporting five straight victories.

Dallas Stars
The Dallas Stars made the dubious decision to strip the captain’s ‘C’ from Mike Modano, passing to newly re-signed Brendan Morrow. I say dubious because even if Morrow is the best leader on the team, taking the C away from Modano is an insult and an embarassment, and Modano deserves better. If Morrow truly was the better leader, he wouldn’t need the C on his jersey to do so. On the plus side, the Stars still sport Marty Turco, Sergei Zubov and the majority of the team that finished 2nd last year in the Western Conference. Underachieving Bill Guerin was bought-out (no response from the Stars so far, so it doesn’t look like they’ll be paying me $2 million to not play for them this year), replaced by injury-prone Eric Lindros. The move thus far seems to have paid off, as Lindros is leading the team in points and has looked good playing on Modano’s wing. Oh, and Jussi Jokinen had the shootout winner last night. Surprise surprise.

Regular season success, of course, means little to Dallas, given their recent playoff implosions. The real test for the Stars doesn’t come until April (although I for one am curious to see if they can stay ahead of the vastly improved Ducks and Sharks in the standings).

Minnesota Wild
The success of the Wild makes me happy. Fewer franchices are as deserving as Minnesota for playoff hockey, and it looks like this year could be the year. The addition of Pavol Demitra and the resigning of Marian Gaborik has benefited the team a great deal. Manny Fernandez has not faltered in the least under the pressure of being the sole and undisputed starter. The injury to defenceman Pascal Dupuis won’t help, but having early games with players out of the lineup generally helps teams to build character and the Wild are a very strong team’s team. They wouldn’t fall apart due to any single player’s absence.

The Division is very, very tough, quite possibly the best in the league, and the Wild will have a difficult season. But they’ll also ensure that the teams they face have the same problem.

Buffalo Sabres
A team with a mission. The Sabres are out to prove they weren’t one-hit wonders last year, and so far they’re suceeding. Miller has looked absolutely tremendous (no sophomore slump so far. He’s probably waiting for Biron to get traded before he falls apart). The Sabres don’t have a single bona-fide top line guy (several are making serious cases for themselves), but their depth through all four lines is unparalleled. They come at you in waves and don’t stop for anything.

The Sabres, like the Wild, play in a very tough division. They also have had a very easy schedule so far. The remainder of their schedule will be a much tougher test, and will give a more accurate impression of just how good this young team really is.

runner up:
Anaheim Ducks: If the Dallas-Anaheim shootout had gone the other way last night, the Ducks and Stars positions would be reversed. The strength of the Ducks is obviously the blueline, with proven stars Chris Pronger and Scott Niedermayer and rising star Francois Beachemin as quite probably the best top three in the league (certainly the first two are the best 1-2). Ilya Bryzgalov didn’t do himself any favours with his recent, very poor performance (why or why did I trade to get him my pool?) but Giguere has been very, very good. I’m not convinced the forwards are good enough to compete. Is the blueline good enough so that that won’t matter?

Notable Additions: Jaroslav Spacek

Notable Subtractions: Mike Grier, Jay Mckee, Taylor Pyatt, Janik

Analysis

Buffalo was a surprisingly successful team last year. They avoided adding free agents last summer because they needed to keep their salaries in check, and the management was likely as surprised as the rest of the league at their success. I can’t see them matching their success, though they should remain a dangerous team.

Goaltending was a huge part of Buffalo’s season last year. The tandem of Biron/Miller was huge for Buffalo all year long. This year Biron will likely be traded, although that won’t happen until they re-sign Ryan Miller, so there’s no immediate rush nor a clear sense of what they will get in return. Can Miller handle the pressure after his extremely successful rookie season? He wouldn’t be the first goalie to fall apart after a sensational rookie year.

Defence next: losing Mckee will hurt. Adding Spacek should help the powerplay but won’t make up the loss on the defensive end. Last year’s defence corps was solid, however, and even without Mckee they have met more depth than most teams around the league.

Not much has changed on the forward lines. The loss of Mike Grier will be felt far more than some people may think. He’s a gritty, hard working player, a leader in the dressing room and a hard player to play against.

The real story for Buffalo next year will be based on two major factors: goaltending (both how Miller plays and who the Sabers can bring in for Biron) and how the young Buffalo team responds to their success last season. If they stick together and stay humble, honest and hard working, they will compete for the lead in the division. If, on the other hand, they lose sight of the cause of their success last year, they will struggle all year long.

I think that comitting to Miller may turn out to be a mistake. Biron has at least a few seasons under his belt. Miller is too much of a question mark in my opinion. Holding on to Biron at least until training camp is under way would be a better idea. There will always be a market for young, talented, successful goalternders. The market right now just isn’t going to pay top dollar for Biron, not with Legace sitting around twiddling his thumbs.