NHL analysis

Major Additions: Manny Fernandez, Shawn Thornton, Peter Schaefer, Carl Soderberg

Major Subtractions: Joey MacDonald, Nathan Dempsey, Petr Tenkrat, Jason York, Sean Donovan, Hannu Toivonen

Analysis

Oh the sorry Bruins. Still reeling from the awful trade that sent superstar Joe Thornton away for spare parts, Boston has a new coach, a new goalie and hopes to at least get itself out of the basement of the North East division - but the road will be a long one.

First, the good news - there are not many teams with a 1-2 punch at centre as talented as Marc Savard and Patrice Bergeron. If Phil Kessel plays pivot on the third line, make that one of the best (and youngest!) 1-2-3 punches. He could also be played on the wing with one of the previous two players, adding substantial speed in exchange for a little depth.

More good news: Manny Fernandez is a proven starter who will play a substantial role in bringing down the Bruins’ woeful 3.48 goals-against per game from a year ago (29th in the league).

Now for the sobering bad news: Fernandez is used to playing in a substantial defensive system and will have a rude welcome playing without that bulwark in front of him. Boston’s blueline remains big but slow and the fast, skilled forwards - so plentiful in the Northeast division - can skate circles around them all night long.

Now for the really bad news: Boston finished last in this division last year and not much looks ready to change. Montreal treaded water but most of their core is fairly young and should be a little better this season. Toronto added a goaltender. Buffalo lost ground but remain far ahead of the Bruins in every department. And the Senators lost virtually nothing from a year ago and look poised to dominate the division and maybe the conference. With 8 games against each of those opponents, the Bruins face a tough schedule.

With new head coach Claude Julien (who deserved a better deal than he received from the Devils last season) and several important pieces either added or maturing (Fernandez and Bergeron/Kessel, respectively), the Bruins should be a much better team than a year ago. But they are not likely to move much in the standings or in their point total, because every improvement they have made has been at least matched by nearly every team around and above them in the conference. Fernandez is no Thomas Vokoun. Schaefer is no Scott Gomez or Chris Drury. And the list goes on.

If Montreal or Toronto falls apart, the Bruins could move up the list. But on their own? Don’t count on it.

Here’s a look at the Eastern Conference race for the final three playoff spots, in order of least likely to most likely to make the playoffs (ordered by using my Predicted Final Standings as of March 20, 2007):

Boston is all but finished.  They sit with 73 points, 11 games left, with by far the toughest schedule of any of the teams fighting for a spot.  The weakest team that Boston plays is Montreal (three times in fact).  The best Boston can hope for is to play spoiler (two wins against Montreal would help the teams above them quite a bit).

Florida is further out but has a very slightly higher chance.  They have 73 points but only 10 games to play.  They get the bonus of playing Philadelphia and Washington, as well as Atlanta, Tampa Bay (twice) and Carolina (twice).  Given their strong play since the trade deadline, Florida remains a long shot but not out of the question.

Montreal is tied with two teams at 78 points, but they’ve played one game more than Toronto and two more than the Islanders.  They’ve been in a tailspin since December that only got worse when their starting goaltender was injured.  Three games against Boston is Montreal’s only remaining hope - anything less than a full sweep of those games would all but eliminate the Habs all on their own.  Montreal also has two remaining games against the Rangers and close the season in Toronto, so even if Montreal isn’t in the playoffs they will have a huge say in who is.

New York Islanders face a goaltending dilemma as long as Rick DiPietro is injured.  The good news is that he looks set to return.  The bad news is in his absence the Islanders went from being solidly in the playoffs to fighting for their lives.  Their schedule difficulty ranks in the middle of the pack, easier than Tampa Bay, Toronto and Boston but harder than Florida, Montreal, Carolina or the Rangers.  Ryan Smyth has had more of an impact on the Oilers (no victories since he left) than on the Islanders since the deadline.

Toronto has struggled in games they ’should’ win and done better than expected in games they should have trouble with.  With a schedule more difficult than any team in this race except for the Bruins, the Leafs are likely to fall short.  In another week this should be decided - two games against Buffalo and one against New Jersey don’t leave much room for error.  The games that follow against Carlina, the Islanders and Montreal will only be important if they don’t drop out of the picture before they get there.

Tampa Bay should be solidly in the playoffs but they are not.  How much longer will the Lightning stand behind Tortorella’s “encouragement” tactics of his goaltenders?  Tampa has a pretty tough schedule but they have the largest margin for error, leading this pack of players and even within striking distance of third by catching Atlanta (not likely given the Thrashers’ play since the trade deadline).

New York Rangers have been the only solid team in this race over recent games, due almost exclusively to the play of Henrik Lundqvist.  If that trend continues the Rangers will easily slip into the playoffs, possibly as high as 6th place.  If Lundqvist stumbles, even having (by far) the easiest remaining schedule in this race won’t save the team.  The best team the Rangers have left to play are the Penguins.  Their numerous games against teams in the race include the Islanders (twice), Montreal (twice) and Leafs.  That many “4 point” games could swing things in almost any direction.

Carolina has goaltending issues, though not the issues I long predicted.  Cam Ward has been solid enough but now he’s hurt.  Carolina’s remaining schedule is easier than anyone’s but the Rangers here and they sit in a playoff spot - barely - right now.  The Canes need other teams to stumble but that seems almost certain to happen.  Two games against Tampa Bay will be key.

I’m not entirely sure why the Leafs have had such problems with the Bruins in recent games, but I have my suspicions. It seems to me that the Boston Blueline is just the right (or wrong, depending on viewpoint) size to give the Leaf forecheckers fits.

Zdeno Chara, Andrew Alberts, Paul Mara… they’re not very fast, but they are very big. Just big enough to keep the Buds from getting a strong cycle going. They clog the slot, they clog the corners, and while the Leafs solved the defence enough to get over 40 shots tonight, they didn’t get the really quality chances they were looking for.

I’m not a big fan of Tim Thomas, but he’s more than capable of making saves coming from 30 foot wristers with no traffic. The lone Leaf goal was, not surprisingly, a garbage goal from Nikolai Antropov, the result of hard work and a solid drive to the net. Many more similar plays fizzled out because Boston did an excellent job stopping the Leafs from getting anywhere near the net.

I didn’t see as many dump-ins to Chara’s side of the rink, but mostly because I didn’t see many dump-ins. Even after the Bruins displayed time and again their plan was to line up four men at their own blueline and dare the Leafs to try and carry the puck in, the Leafs tried to carry the puck in. And it didn’t work.

So, another loss to another division rival the Leafs have had trouble with of late. Between the Sabres, Senators and now Bruins, the Leafs have to play 24 games a year against teams they have trouble beating even when they have the stronger team. Add eight always-close games against the Canadiens and the road out of the playoffs becomes apparent.

Not nearly enough emotion in these division games. That’ll have to change if the Buds want to keep ahead of the mob of teams just behind them in the standings, let alone catch some of the conference leaders.

Now, let’s talk about the power play. Specifically, the extended 5-on-3 the Leafs blew with the score tied 1-1.

5-on-3’s are dangerous for two reasons: first, and most obviously, with 2 extra men on the ice, there’s bound to be open men just itching for one-timers. Just based on percentages, the team on the power play should easily win virtually every race to the puck and virtually every single battle for the puck. The defenders cannot possibly cover all of their opponents and so they are left to try and limit the chances and especially limit their quality.

The second reason 2 man advantages are so effective is because it is so easy to tire out your opponent. With even a moderately successful power play, the defenders are forced to over-exert themselves trying to cover almost 2 opponents each.

The only time this doesn’t happen is when a team’s power play decides to stand still, relying on puck movement alone to get their opponents moving. This is what the Leafs did tonight. The three Bruins were able to stand virtually still, waving their sticks in the passing lanes they knew the Leafs would use.

Word is out on the Leaf power play, and Paul Maurice and Co. had better take note. If the Leafs make the same mistake they did last year - trying one play over and over and lack of success be damned - the power play will fizzle just as it did a year ago. The play may have changed, but a diagonal cross-criss pass to Darcy Tucker is no harder to defend against than a point to point one-timer from Bryan McCabe at the blueline. At least, not when everyone knows that it’s coming.

The same principles are also in play in regular 5-on-4 power plays, though everything is obviously enhanced when up 2 men. We need to see much more movement - from players and not only from the puck - on the power play. Keep the opponent guessing, look for opportunities, keep those big mobile screens - your forwards and your opponents defencemen - shifting in front of the goalie. Just moving the puck is simply not enough.

Since I’ve mentioned it over and over recently, let’s start with the forecheck. The Leafs will live and die this year by their forecheck. So if you’re trying to get a cycle going, which defenceman fishing the puck out of the corner is your worst nightmare? I’ll give you a hint: he’s freakin’ huge.

If I’m the first forechecker deep in Boston’s end, the last guy I want to have to fight with for the puck is Zdeno Chara. Now, Chara regularly plays close to or over 30 minutes a game, so you can’t just wait until he’s on the bench. But you’ve got two corners to choose from - choose the one that doesn’t have Chara in it! I don’t care if Chris Pronger, Scott Stevens and god are stacked in the other corner, you put the puck as far away from Chara as you can.

Well, the Leafs didn’t do that. They instead chose to give the puck to Chara over and over, with predictable results. They rarely got a strong forecheck going and as a result were baddly outchanced (if not outshot) tonight. The worst part? The same thing happened last week.

The only positive to take out of the ridiculous decision to test Chara all night long is that we got to see Alexei Ponikarovsky throw himself into the fray time and time again, and while I think we can all agree Chara was the winner, Ponikarovsky did better than most players I’ve seen in that situation. There aren’t many defencemen who can make Poni look small, but Chara does that, and yet he was unable to dominate or intimidate the forecheck. This bodes very well for the Leafs, and almost as well for both Ponikarovsky and also Nikolai Antropov, who was almost as good in the Boston zone. Once again Antropov and Ponikarovsky, both free agents after tonight, were the best Leaf forwards. You can’t say they’re just the best the Leafs can throw out there anymore - they are bona-fide top line wingers. And they’re both still getting better.

Another young forward I am usually very high on is Matthew Stajan, who unfortunately looked much weaker tonight. Stajan was one of the worst Leafs for giveaways and half-hearted efforts tonight, something I’m sure Paul Maurice took note of. Luckily this was just an off night for Stajan. He’ll bounce back.

Other Leafs who had a weak game I’m not quite so easy on. Tops on that list is Bryan McCabe. Now, yes, McCabe took a hard shot on an unprotected ankle, and yes, the Leafs played with effectively 4 1/2 defencemen tonight after Kubina got hurt (I’m a fan of Wade Belak but he’s a 5 minute a game player at best). Neither of these factors excuse McCabe’s sloppy, lazy play tonight, however. For an almost $6 million blueliner, McCabe didn’t skate hard, didn’t shoot hard, didn’t play the body hard, basically didn’t show up. Not acceptable. The game-breaking goal, with 4 minutes left, came because McCabe decided to try some sort of a stick-swipe pock-check piece of crap instead of taking Brad Boyes sitting all alone in the slot. Even Antropov came roaring from the point trying to interfere with Boyes. McCabe showed plenty of emotion after the goal was scored, but if he showed a little sense a little earlier, it didn’t have to happen.

And finally on McCabe, I know there were under 40 seconds left, but get your ass in gear! He took a solid 10 seconds getting the puck back up the ice after Boston cleared the zone. If you score with 40 seconds left, you have a chance, albeit a small one, of getting a second goal and making it to overtime. If you don’t even cross the red line until the clock is down to 15 seconds, the game is already over. Not acceptable.

Finally, a note on playing Belak over Brendan Bell. I know Bell struggled in his last game, I know Maurice had good intentions sitting the youngster down, giving him time to work some confidence back into his game. But tonight was a crystal clear example of why playing Belak as a 5 minute a game defenceman is just not a good idea. While Kubina was getting some work down on his broken chops, the Leafs may as well have been playing with 4 bodies on the blueline. I thought the point of signing Kubina and Hal Gill was to take some of the pressure of Tomas Kaberle and McCabe. How does playing a 5-man rotation and a hard-working, well liked but borderline player as your 6th defenceman lower the top duo’s minutes?

My Leafs just suffered an embarassing lackluster defeat to the woeful-but-surging Bruins, who have won three straight for the first time this year. Here are a few of my notes from the game:

- Hal Gill is really, really good with his stick. Smart, too. He understands that quickness is not his strength, and he plays within his limitations. He’s rarely if ever caught pinching, and he’s quietly effective at using his size and reach to thwart opposing forecheckers. Even when he loses the footrace, he frequently reaches around and catches up to faster players before they realize what he’s done with his stick.

- Nikolai Antropov doesn’t lose one-on-one battles for the puck. Say what you want about Antropov, but he’s oh-so-tough to knock off of the puck in the offensive zone. He and Alexei Ponikarovsky share one other characteristic that I just love: they don’t give up. They keep fighting. Love it!

- Zdeno Chara is intimidating. You notice this much more than his size, which is very noticable. Few players bother hitting him, even if they’re not scared, per se. They realize that even if they throw a good hit, they’re just going to bounce off of him. That frees up the big man to take his time in his own end, which is a bad thing if you’re trying to get a solid forecheck going.

- Boston is not a good team. They won this game, and they lead most of the way, but they were only just barely better than a very bad Leafs team tonight. The Bruins sat back and watched the clock with a one goal lead against a team that wasn’t playing well. It worked tonight, but it generally doesn’t. Tim Thomas made some good saves but he really wasn’t tested. Should have been a lopsided Toronto win.

- Bryan McCabe is looking better as the season rolls along. I still don’t think he deserved the $5.75 million per year, and certainly not the no movement clause, but in his last 6 or 7 games, Bryan has shown flashes of just why JFJ gave him that deal. He’s been more physical, smarter, better in both ends of the rink, and isn’t trying to do too much. The insertion of Pavel Kubina and the refreshingly good play of Ian White, Brendan Bell and Gill take enormous amounts of pressure off of McCabe (Tomas Kaberle, too) and it shows. If he continues to improve - IF - in a few months we may be wondering how JFJ managed to sign him to such a cheap contract for so long. But I wouldn’t order the champagne just yet.

- Two games in two nights is bad, but a week off can be worse. The Bruins were obviously tired; the Leafs were rustier than… well I won’t go there. I dread hearing excuses for any loss, but the layoff certainly didn’t help the Blue’n'White tonight.

- The Leafs will live and die this year based on their forecheck. They’re good on face-offs, but they’re not a great finesse team and they don’t cause many turnovers leading to odd-man rushes. Almost every single one of their good scoring chances tonight came either from cycling down low, or from faceoffs or penalties caused by their great cycling. The good news is that they’re pretty darned good at it. The better news is that Maurice seems to be (usually) pretty good at getting the team to work hard, because the bad news is that they won’t win many games without outworking their opponents.

Here’s an early look at the top and bottom teams in the league thus far. I took the top and bottom teams by winning percentage (taking points divided by possible points) to account for the different number of games played). Here they are, starting with the:

Bottom Three (worst to best)
1. Phoenix Coyotes: 0.200, 1-4-0
The Phoenix Coyotes expected so much out of this season, but so far they are coming up worse than flat. With only a single win and two points in 5 games, the Coyotes are already working hard at digging themselves a hole. Rumours have unsurprisingly started swirling that the Desert Dogs are seeking depth in goal and are looking to move Mike Comrie in return. Don’t count out Curtis Joseph, however. Cujo proved last year he’s got at least a year or two left in him, and he’s mentally tough enought to bounce back from a tough start. I’ll bet he’s wishing he’d come back to Toronto however (did someone say déja vu?). With forwards like Shane Doan and Ladislav Nagy up front and the addition of Ed Jovanoski on the blueline, the Coyotes have to be expected to improve on their poor start. However, from what I’ve heard of Jovo-cop, his defensive liabilities are likely to continue rather than go away. That doesn’t bode well for the future of the Coyotes.

2. Nashville: 0.250, 1-3-0
Wow, these guys are sure surprising a lot of people, and not in a good way. Expected by many (myself included) to overtake Detroit for the division, take a serious run at the Conference title, and fight their way deep into the playoffs, the Predators are not having the start they wanted. Although obviously still very early, concern is already starting to creep in. Nashville will bounce back, and fast. Their core group, including Paul Kariya and Steve Sullivan, know that this year’s team may be their best chance to win a Stanley Cup. They won’t squander their chance without a fight.

3. Philadelphia Flyers: 0.300, 1-3-1
A tough team, but not looking so scary this far. When Peter Forsberg plays like the best player in the league, watch out. When he doesn’t, well then the Flyers look more like the too-slow goons that fell apart in the playoffs las season. Hatcher and Rat- woops, nevermind. The good news for Flyers fans has to be Joni Pitkanen, tied for second in the league with 5 points (all assists) in 5 games. Although his minus-4 rating is less encouraging. But the real trouble is in goal, with Robert Esche his usual inconsistent self and Antero Niitimaki playing through the pain and taking cortisone shots to avoid surgery. Love the guy playing through the pain but I’m not sold on this guy even when he’s healthy. The rumours are swirling about Bobby Clarke looking at Ilya Brygalov (getting yanked tonight won’t help Bryzgalov earn a starting job, whether in Anaheim, Philly or elsewhere). Clarke has denied that he’s looking for help in goal, but of course, with Clarke that virtually guarantees that he really is. If Niitymaki struggles Clarke may be forced to make a move, though he will undoubtedly not be happy with the almost certain asking price - of of the young Mike Richards or Jeff Carter being the most sought after.

Runner up:
- Boston Bruins (also 1-3-1): Tim Thomas and Hannu Toivonen have struggled. Marc Savard has struggled. Zdeno Chara has been unable to turn around a porous blueline. The early signs are not good, especially with the other division teams being so strong.

The NHL Pre-Season for 2006-2007 has officially kicked off! The New Jersey Devils defeated the Boston Bruins 5-0 this afternoon to get things rolling.

While pre-season games are a poor indicator of the level of success teams can be expected to have during the regular season (in this game Boston did not play Zdeno Chara, Marc Savard or Phil Kessel, just for one point) it is always interesting to see who gets off to the right start (also, the last five Stanley Cup Championship teams had better than .500 records in preseason play the years they won).

Hannu Toivonen yielded 4 goals on the first 26 shots he faced (0.846 save percentage). Ha! I told you Boston’s goaltending would have difficulties this season.

The Devils scored four goals on 11 power play chances (36%). Tough luck if you were hoping for a decrease in penalties called this year.

Three other games tonight. Here we go!

Notable Additions: Zdeno Chara, Shean Donovan, Paul Mara, Mark Mowers, Tukka Rask, Marc Savard

Subtractions: Nick Boynton, Hal Gill, Andrew Raycroft, Marty Reasoner

Analysis

The two big gambles Boston took this year were Chara and Savard. Chara was the most sought after defencemen of a very high profile free agent pool this summer, but that doesn’t excuse the massive overpayment Boston shelled out for him. $7.5 per season times five seasons is a huge junk of salary, particularly for a guy who has shown a tendency to wear down and get injured in the course of a long season. This is true of any big, rugged defencemen, but Chara leaves a gaping hole when he goes down.

Savard is a different type of gamble. If he’s truly begun to come into his own as a playmaking center, locking up such a young, talented player for the next four years will be a steal. However, I find it hard to believe that Savard’s 97 points last year had as much to do with his own talent as it did with playing with Kovalchuk and Hossa for the majority of the year. If Atlanta put my grandmother between those players she’d have a decent chance of racking up 90+ points.

Another useful comparison might be between Savard and Thornton. Boston already had Thornton tied up for $6.67 million before trading him last year. Given $1.67 million per year between those two, who would you rather have as your number 1 center?

Boston will struggle next year, although they have a shot at the playoffs. Their goaltending is suspect but capable. One of Tim Thomas and Toivonen should be good enough for a 7-9th spot team. The other changes were generally safe, conservative moves. Mara is a capable defenceman and will be expected to pick up the offensive slack left by the departure of Brian Leetch. Boynton was more of a physical, defensive defenceman who’s simply not needed as much on a team that has Chara. Boston also successfuly locked up a few key elements for their future, notably Brad Boyes, who was third in rookie scoring in the NHL last year. Not bad at all considering the top two on that list were Ovenchkin and Crosby.

Despite some high profile additions, Boston is another year or two away from seriously competing from the playoffs. The Eastern conference is just too strong for them to be considered a likely playoff team next year, although they’re good enough to surprise me. Expect them to improve over last season but not nearly enough. If Savard plus Chara is their plan, it’s a good thing they locked them both up long term.