NHL analysis

Major Additions: Karel Pilar, Alexandre Giroux, Ken Klee, Todd White, Eric Perrin

Major Subtractions: Andy Sutton, Shane Hnidy, Eric Belanger, Greg de Vries, Jonathan Sim

Analysis

The Thrashers panicked last season, parting with a number of prospects and picks when it appeared they would again fail to miss the playoffs. Well, they were able to make the post-season but were neatly swept in the first round. So much for that plan. The end result? The Thrashers have seven players heading towards unrestricted free agency (not counting backup goaltenders Johan Hedberg and Fred Brathwaite), most notably explosive forward Marian Hossa, who looks to make a substantial raise on his $6 million salary cap hit next summer. With the Thrashers’ ownership in an ugly legal battle, the team may not be able to offer Hossa the dollars or the term that he wants. And if he has another season like the past few years, his price is only going to go up.

In the short term, in the Thrashers have an improving young goaltender in Kari Lehtonen (due for a raise, probably before next summer). Bobby Holik will either be let go or expected to sign at a considerable discount. Todd White is a solid player who can be counted on to fill in first-line minutes if it becomes neccessary.

The blueline is more of a concern. Alexei Zhitnik isn’t really cut out to be a #1 defenceman any more, while the players expected to round out the top six are neither good enough to form a really potent blueline nor young enough to be expected to improve, nor cheap enough to justify fielding such a weak group.

I don’t see the Thrashers making the playoffs a second time. They have the elite talent but are thin everywhere else. They lack the stability as a franchise to offer much hope of signing Hossa to a long term contract, and in trading away their picks and prospects they’ve weakened their prospect pool in exchange for an aging defenceman and four extra games last year. Not exactly smart management.

The Southest division remains one of the weakest in the NHL, so the Thrashers won’t likely be a basement team, but not much can reasonably be expected of them despite their easy schedule. Though their fans may not like it, the franchise may be better served moving Hossa at the trading deadline than in pursuing another (likely short-lived) playoff appearance.

Key players for NY Rangers: Henrik Lundqvist, Jaromir Jagr, Sean Avery

Key players for Atlanta: Keith Tkachuk, Marian Hossa, Kari Lehtonen

Analysis: How on earth are the Thrashers the third seed?  Ranked bottom 10 in both power play and penalty killing, only a single goal more for than against… even playing in a weak division, the Thrashers are lucky to be in the playoffs.  This will be a first round upset.

Lundqvist was the key down the stretch and will continue to be so.  He is the real deal.  I was skeptical at the begining of the year (I’m skeptical of all second year goaltenders) but he’s made me a believer.  I don’t think the Rangers have the depth up front or on the blueline for a long run but I would be very surprised if they didn’t make it out of the first round.

But there is some worry.  Johan Hedberg is a more viable Plan B than Kevin Weekes should injuries occur.  Tkachuk and Alexei Zhitnik, though expensive, have proved very valuable since the trade deadline.  The Rangers are very top heavy, though their addition of Sean Avery as added more to the team than I expected.

Prediction: Rangers in six

The Atlanta Thrashers have made several moves in the past 24 hours, acquiring both Alexei Zhitnik and Keith Tkachuk, though they’ve paid a heavy price for both.

A first, second and third round draft pick seems a heavy price to pay for a power forward who has managed 43 points in 63 games this season.  Not to mention that the Thrashers will have to give up a second first round pick if they manage to re-sign Tkachuk this summer.  They also sent Glen Metropolit, though that’s likely the cheapest piece of the deal.

I’m also surprised they were willing to part with Braydon Coburn at such a young age.  Alexei Zhitnik is certainly an immediate upgrade but they might regret this one in a few years.

It seems to me that GM Don Waddell may be feeling some heat with his team’s slide over the past few months.  For a team that started out so hot, they’ve stumbled enough to be fighting for a playoff spot rather than the divisional lead.

Or maybe he’s remembering his playoff guarantee from a year ago.  Waddell was the first GM I’ve ever heard who was willing to guarantee a playoff spot for his team.  Not that it cost him anything to say it, and it never hurts to show confidence in your team, but it certainly doesn’t look good.

So perhaps the memory of that egg-on-the-face, coupled with the slide of the Thrashers, has given Waddell the needed push to pay the big price for some veteran leadership for the playoff push.

This definitely was the trade that really showed me how steep the few sellers are setting their prices.  Forsberg was a risk but if he stays healthy he’s a known playoff monster (162 pts in 139 playoff games).  Tkachuk has never scored more than 10 points in the playoffs, and that was back in 2001-02.

But maybe I’m wrong.  The Thrashers have definitely needed a first line center and Tkachuk will fill that role better than anyone else the Thrashers have available.  And at least Waddell has shown that he has some balls.

How ’bout those Thrashers? Marian Hossa has saved me early in my Hockey Leaks hockey pool (luckily no one knows Yahoo auto-picked Hossa for me before I remembered about my draft and logged in). Anyways, he’s also doing his best to get the Thrashers started on the right foot. Atlanta jumped to a great start to the season, before Ilya Kovalchuk started scoring!. That’s a scary thought.

The Thrashers received excellent goaltending, solid scoring through their lineup, and Vyacheslav Kozlov has been excellent in shootouts, all reasons the Thrashers have started the season 7-1-1.

Now, Atlanta has had a fairly easy schedule. They’ve played Boston and Carolina once each, Tampa Bay and Washington twice each, and Florida three times. The average adjusted winning percentage of those teams, adjusted for games played, is only 0.385 - good enough for the easiest schedule so far in the entire NHL (my adjusted winning percentage treats overtime and shootout victories and losses differently than games that end in regulation).

All in all, my stats how the Thrashers to be slightly overachieving. They’re due for a slip up but not as much as I would have expected a few weeks ago. They are slightly below average in both offence (shots for plus goals for per game) and defence (shots against plus goals against per game). My power rankings currently list Atlanta as being the third strongest in the league, due mostl to the fact that despite their easy schedule, they’re taking advantage and winning hockey games.

Additions: Fred Brathwaite, Darren Haydar, Johan Hedberg, Niko Kapanen, Glen Metropolit, Steve Rucchin, Jon Sim, Kyle Wanvig, Vitaly Vishnevski

Subtractions: Jaroslav Modry, Tomas Kloucek, Marc Savard, Patrik Stefan, Karl Stewart

Analysis

While I don’t feel that Atlanta has the depth or experience to make an extended run in the playoffs, they should be a very dangerous team in the regular season and should be more than strong enough to at least make those playoffs.

First off, goaltending. Last year the Thrashers had the distinct displeasure of reaching down to the fifth goaltender on their depth chart. And they still came within two points of eigth place. To avoid this situation from repeating, the Thrashers picked up Johan Hedberg and Fred Brathwaite, significantly deepening them at the most important position on the ice. Brathwaite a few years ago was one of the hottest goaltenders in the league, and though he faded into obscurity, he probably deserved another chance before now. Hedberg never became a really top #1, but will be a more than capable backup. And you have to expect Lehtonen to have a better, or at least healthier season than last year.

On defence the Thrashers just recently picked up Vishnevski from the Ducks. He should have an immediate impact on the blueline, though two draft picks and Stewart may have been too high a price to pay. Losing Modry will hurt, but Vishnevski should make up for his loss. Greg de Vries will likely be leaned on for more than the 22 minutes per game he averaged last year, and though not the best choice for a #1/2 defenceman, he should be capable.

Up front is where the Thrashers are the weakest. Their top line featuring Kovalchuk Hossa and pretty much anyone will be among the best in the league, but beyond that they have almost no one. I for one feel that Savard was overpaid by the Bruins, but he was still a young, creative player just entering his prime and he meshed well on the top line last year. Bondra has yet to be resigned, and even if he does return he’s past his prime at this point. His production from last year (39 points) can only be expected to decline, which is a bad thing if you are a Thrashers fan because only Kovalchuk, Hossa, Savard and Kozlov had more points than Bondra on the team last year.

Atlanta is certainly a team looking up, but beyond their top line they simply do not have the depth or experience to be a serious Cup Contender. The teams just above them in the standings should be looking nervously over their shoulders. The battle for the playoffs in the East is just getting more and more interesting.