NHL analysis

Major Additions: Todd Bertuzzi, Matthew Schneider

Major Subtractions: Dustin Penner, Teemu Selanne*, Scott Niedermayer

* - both Selanne and Niedermayer are considering retirement but neither has confirmed their choice as of yet

Analysis

The defending Stanley Cup champions kept a significant portion of their core together but lost a few key pieces - particularly if their captain and leading scorer from last season both elect to retire. Since GM Brian Burke did an admirable job filling both of those holes, should the two elect to play in the upcoming season the Ducks could be an even stronger team than they were a year ago. That is, of course, assuming they can fit their team under the salary cap, which could take some magic.

If, on the other hand, one or both of the two decide to retire, the Ducks are undeniably a weaker team. Schneider’s best days are behind him and Bertuzzi’s $4 million salary is a payment for the way Todd has not played in many years.

There is good news, however. Dustin Penner is gone but the influx of draft picks - not to mention the cap space - will be instrumental in Anaheim’s future. Corey Perry and Ryan Getzlaf are each a year older and more experienced. Bobby Ryan should be ready to make the team. Burke has a pretty solid roster and several big bargaining chips - notably Bryzgalov - should he decide to seek a trade.

The road to defending the Stanley Cup is a long shot, but you have to consider the Ducks contenders as much today as they were a year ago.

As promised, here is my complete coverage/prediction for the Stanley Cup Final Series.  I’ll be abandoning the format I used for the first three rounds and just focusing on analysis, as these two teams played such vastly different opponents throughout the regular season direct comparison of stats don’t mean a whole heck of a lot.

Offence

The Senators roll four lines but rely on one, while the Ducks lean heavily on all three of their top lines while their fourth liners warm the bench.  It’s an interesting matchup because neither team features the really deep, balanced scoring like last year’s Stanley Cup Champions (the Hurricanes top three centremen last year were Brind’Amour, Staal and Weight).

The Senators have very successfully played solid playoff hockey, focusing on defence first and capitalizing on their power play and turnover opportunities.  The Ducks are strong, tough and physical on the forecheck, dominating down low and cycling very well.

I give the edge to the Ducks because if the Sens big line slows or gets slowed down, the Sens have almost nothing else to fall back on.  The Ducks have no one as dominant as Heatley, Alfredsson and Spezza have been, but they’re more consistent.

Defence

The Sens have the deeper blueline, while the Ducks have the best blueliners.  The Sens will rely heavily on Volchenkov and Phillips, but because of the balanced attack of the Ducks, they will also need Redden and Meszaros, and even Corvo and Preissing, to be effective at shutting down the opposition.  On the other hand, the Sens top line will in all likelihood never set foot on the ice without at least one of Niedermayer or Pronger opposing them.

The Ducks did better than I expected when Pronger was out of the lineup serving his one game suspension, and that bodes well for them because it shows they have more depth than most would give them credit for.  However, the burden still rests on Scott and Chris to essentially outplay two or three of Ottawa’s defencemen each.  As I believe they are up to the task, I give the Ducks the edge on the blueline.

Goal

Ray Emery has played very well, and will continue to give his team a chance to win every single night, but the edge has to go the Giguere here.  A 12-1 overtime playoff record says it all - JS has a proven record of showing up big when his team needs him most.

Prediction

Ducks in 7.  The seven game prediction may just be my desire to see as much hockey as possible before the season ends, but I do believe Ottawa will come out strong.  They have looked like a team on a mission since game 1 of the playoffs.  I just don’t think they have the depth to expose the thinness of the Ducks’ blueline or the toughness to do much damage when Pronger and Niedermayer are on the ice.

That being said, as a Canadian, I have to root for the Sens, even if it feels very, very wrong.

Battle of the big dogs in the West.  Anaheim’s not a surprise to me here but I must say Detroit is.  Of course, Detroit finished first in the Western Conference, missed winning the President’s Trophy by less than a single point, which is very much consistent with their success… well, seems like forever now.  Maybe I have to start giving them a little credit.

If nothing else, I’m tempted to pick the Wings if only because of the three series I’ve been wrong on so far this year, TWO have been picking the Wings to lose.

The Wings will continue to win if they can survive the loss of their number 2 defenceman (Schneider) and continue to play their solid defensive game - limit shots on Hasek, play patiently, make the most of the opportunities as they occur.  I also the Wings being successful if they can lengthen the series - the Ducks have only played 10 games so far in the playoffs and they rely heavily on 6 forwards and 4 defencemen.  Do they have the endurance to last in a long series against a difficult opponent?

The Ducks will win if they succeed where Calgary and San Jose failed - get bodies to the net and get Hasek off his game without taking penalties.  They have the luxury of keeping a Norris candidate on the ice twice as often as Detroit and both of their top two lines have performed very well so far this year.  If this series were starting in Anaheim I think I would pick the Ducks, but with home ice advantage lying with the Wings, Anaheim has an uphill battle to climb with their first serious test this summer.  They also need their core of young players, whom they rely on quite heavily, to play above their level of experience.

Home ice advantage and the unwillingness to be wrong picking Detroit to lose in three straight series has me giving this one to the Wings, but I suspect Anaheim will draw it out to the limit.

My prediction: Detroit in 7

Here are things I’ve noticed about each of the remaining 8 teams:

Buffalo Sabres: Strong, fast, deep, talented - but not very tough.  The Sabres don’t have a particularly gritty team, and the insertion of Tim Connolly onto the fourth line (while obviously the right decision) has only added to that.  I just can’t see the Sabres lasting against a team like San Jose or Anaheim if they were to make the finals.  That being said, I wouldn’t want to be the team to face them or tell them that.

New York Rangers: Just not good enough to beat the Sabre (not that anyone is surprised).  While Henrik Lundqvist has been excellent, and Jaromir Jagr looks like he’s out to prove something, the defence and the second, third and fourth lines simply lack the skill to skate with their opponents.  This is not to say that the Rangers can’t win.  But they’ll have to be very, very patient if they wish to do so.

New Jersey Devils: The Devils are a team that just wins.  Of course it starts with Brodeur, but it continues with everyone from Scott Gomez (10 assists so far in the playoffs) on down.  That being said, they needed overtime to salvage a slit of their opening two home games against the Senators.  As long as Ray Emery can continue to remain within spitting distance of Brodeur’s play, the Devils will be hard pressed to lengthen this series, let alone win it.

Ottawa Senators: So far, the Sens look determined to break their reputation as playoff chokers.  For how long?  They may still fall apart, but it won’t be happening anytime soon.  They still could have used Gary Roberts, but maybe, just maybe, they’ll make do without him.  If I didn’t know any better I’d swear Mike Comrie was playing for a new contract…

Detroit Red Wings: Very nearly went down 2-0 heading to San Jose.  Detroit may just have their hands full with a bigger, faster, strong Sharks team.  The good news is Pavel Datsyuk is playing up to his new contract, Hasek remains one of the best, and the Wings got past the first round.

San Jose Sharks: My current pick for “team to beat” remaining in the playoffs.  The Sharks forwards are so big, so tough, so mean, and so all around goooood it’s almost scary.  Craig Rivet was worth the first round pick the Sharks gave up after all.  And maybe the Sharks should be moving Toskala instead of Nabokov.

Anaheim Ducks: The third and fourth liners are hardly playing.  That’s both the best and worst thing the Ducks could hope for here.  The Ducks have some of the best players in the league on their top two lines and defence pairs, but the rest of their line up is somewhat weaker than that of their opponents.  In long games and long series’, that is potentially worrisome.  Do they have the stamina if they’re only playing half their roster?

Vancouver Canucks: Managed to split the games in Anaheim (which I didn’t think they would) but then dropped game three in Vancouver.  They certainly can’t afford to drop game four, and I’m not sure winning it would be enough, either.  However, I have to give the team credit - how different would the situation be if they hadn’t suffered the injuries to their blueline?

Key players for Vancouver: Sedin twins, Roberto Luongo, Trevor Linden

Key players for Anaheim: Chris Pronger, Teemu Selanne, Scott Niedermayer

Analysis: Vancouver got the easiest draw in the first round and barely outscored the Stars. Luongo did everything he was expected to do, Linden did far more than that, and then everything petered out.

With all due respect to Trevor Linden, he cannot be your highest scoring player in the playoffs. Marcus Naslund and the Sedin twins need to get moving and moving fast, because the Ducks will be flying from the first puck drop. And they’re fast, and they’re big and they’re mean. If they can do so without taking too many penalties, the Canucks will be lucky to see more than 2 home dates.

I’m pulling for the Canucks because I have to hope for the Cup to come back to Canada (and Ottawa doesn’t count ;)) but I wouldn’t put any money on them.

Prediction: Ducks in 5

Key players for Minnesota: Marian Gaborik, Pavol Demitra, Niklas Backstrom

Key players for Anaheim: Scott Niedermayer, Chris Pronger, Teemu Selanne

Analysis: This will be one hell of a matchup.  Minnesota plays boring hockey spiced up with a few explosive players.  Anaheim is a powerhouse, with two strong goaltenders and the best 1-2 punch on the blueline the NHL has to offer.  The Wild are going to be scrappy, hard-working, unwilling to give an inch.  The Ducks need one thing: they need their best players to be the best players on the ice.

There are no surprises to be had here.  Sure, second tier guys like Ryan Getzlaf will have to step up but this team belongs to Giguerre, Pronger, Niedermayer and Selanne.  If those four start falling to injury or don’t outplay their counterparts opposite the ice, Minnesota will triumph.  The good news is all four are proven performers.  There are no soft players or known playoff chokers in this lineup.

The lack of depth behind Pronger and Niedermayer will likely be exploited, especially in Minnesota where the Wild have the last change.  Will it be enough?

Prediction: Anaheim in six

As I write this, the teams seeded 1 through 8 in both the Eastern and Western conferences have more wins than any of their competitors who are on the outside looking in. Even if Toronto finishes the season 3-0 while Montreal finishes with three losses, the 8th and 9th place teams in the East would still be tied with 41 wins each.  In other words, while there would be some position jockeying if the NHL threw out the 3 point games and simply recorded wins and losses, exactly the same 16 teams would qualify for the playoffs.
The extra point for losing in overtime (or the shootout) is supposed to reward teams in close games and encourage them to ‘go for it’ rather than playing for the tie. Unfortunately, all this does is inflate the points of teams with extra helpings of skill or luck in shootouts while encouraging teams to play for the tie in the final minutes of regulation rather than in OT.

It also rewards teams for losing, as long as they don’t lose in regulation. Detroit and Anaheim, currently sitting 1st and 3rd in league standings, each have lost 12 games after the third period.

Dumping the extra point for losing in OT would simplify the standings for new(er) fans, reward teams for winning and nothing else (losing in OT in the playoffs doesn’t get you anywhere, does it?) and would simply make sense.

Canada.com:

Minnesota is the one team that scares you. They’ve got [Marian] Gaborik, who’s a game-breaker, they’ve played some of the best hockey in the league lately and they’re better than they’ve ever been, even the year they went three rounds [’03 again].

He makes some very good points throughout the article. Anaheim looks frightening but they really lack depth. Imagine Anaheim without Scott Niedermayer, Chris Pronger or Teemu Selanne. Of course, any team that loses a guy of that caliber would suffer, but the Ducks are probably the most top-heavy team in the league. Their young players have been excellent but do you want to rely on them in the playoffs?

I still like Nashville, though they haven’t adjusted to Peter Forsberg’s arrival as quickly as I would have liked. They remind me of Carolina last season - three very deep scoring lines, big up the middle, with a blueline stuffed with some underrated and very solid guys. I also like them because they have a number of players - Paul Kariya and Steve Sullivan come to mind - for whom this year might be their best chance. They don’t want to waste that. They’ll be hungry.

Side question: if you’re Dallas, how worried are you about Marty Turco? His playoff performance has been terrible so far and he’s set to eat up a hefty $5.7 million for another three years. How many more chances can you afford to give him if he can’t break out of his playoff funk?