NHL analysis

Power Rankings for January 16, 2007 are up.

Power Rankings are a combination of winning percentage, schedule difficulty, offensive and defensive statistics (shots and goals for and allowed per game) and opponent offensive and defensive stats. Each team is listed with its Power Rank and the change from its ranking last week. There is significant movement this week, in part because last week’s rankings did not include offensive and defensive statistics.

1. Detroit Red Wings (.795, +3): Best ratio of offensive to defensive stats by far. Dominic Hasek had another shutout. Now that Pavel Datsyuk and Henrik Zetterberg are rolling, this team will compete for yet another President’s Trophy.

2. Anaheim Ducks (.760, 0): The injuries to Chris Pronger and JS Giguere have hardly been noticed in the long run. Teemu Selanee is perhaps the best pure goal scorer in the league today.

3. San Jose Sharks (.667, -2): Joe Thornton leads the league in power play assists (32) and points (36). Boston got who in return for this guy?

4. Buffalo Sabres (.607, -1): Showing signs of struggling under the weight of injuries. Last year’s playoffs showed that this team, though very deep, is just as vulnerable to the injury bug as anyone else. They are not any deeper than they were a year ago, and may need to make a few moves before the deadline rolls around.

5. Dallas Stars (.560, +2): Rolling along despite a slew of injuries. Until I see success in the playoffs, I really have nothing to say about this team.

6. New Jersey Devils (.558, 0): I had high hopes for this team in last year’s playoffs, but their complete deflation against the eventual Cup champion Hurricanes showed that a complete lack of secondary scoring leaves even Martin Brodeur too much of a workload to get far in the playoffs.

7. Ottawa Senators (.544, +4): Jason who? The loss of Spezza and Mike Fischer seems to have provided the glue this team needed to come together.

8. Tampa Bay Lightning (.544, +14): Marc Denis has not provided the steady goaltending this team expected and needed. The Lightning have one of the best shots and goals for / against ratio in the league, yet they are struggling to maintain a playoff spot.

9. Carolina Hurricanes (.542, +1): Cam Ward has been better than I expected him through the first half, which has provided the Hurricanes the stability every team needs. What they do when their glut of injured defencemen get healthy will determine the future of this franchise not only this season, but for the next several years as well.

10. Nashville Predators (.534, -5): Here is a team that suffers from the inclusion of offensive and defensive stats. The Preds have the luxury of two of the best goaltenders in this year’s NHL, and so they win consistently despite regularly giving up more shots than they take.

11. Vancouver Canucks (.524, -2): Not enough offence? Giving up too many shots? Luongo still prefers the Canucks to his old team.

12. Toronto Maple Leafs (.499, +5): They tend to lose the nail biters while winning big. That helps them in the Power Rankings but won’t help them win important games.

13. Colorado Avalanche (.491, +5): Goaltending needs to be better.

14. NY Rangers (.470, +2): One of the best inconsistent teams in the league. Not a bad combination, but not a very good one, either.

15. Florida Panthers (.451, +11): Rumours are starting that Oli Jokinen wants out of town. If Jokinen and Bertuzzi depart over the summer, who will the Panthers have left to build around?

16. Montreal Canadiens (.448, -8): Great special teams but mostly, the Habs live and die by Christobel Huet. Someone needs to take the pressure off of Saku Koivu. Samsonov and Kovalev, we are looking in your direction.

17. Calgary Flames (.443, -2): Better than expected without captain Iginla. Is Kipper the single best bargain in the league at $3.33 million?

18. Atlanta Thrashers (.440, -6): This is a good team, but they are helped considerably by their weak division. Any playoff experience they can get this year will help them become a real contender for the future.

19. Minnesota Wild (.426, +1): Horrendous road record will doom this club, though they have a shot at making the playoffs if Marian Gaborik maintains his current pace.

20. Boston Bruins (.412, -7): Tim Thomas still isn’t the answer. Who’d they get for Joe Thornton?

21. Edmonton Oilers (.386, -2): Getting exactly what they expected from Roloson, more than expected from the blueline (though they’d undoubtedly like some help in that area) and not enough from all those forewards they spent so much time locking up last summer.

22. NY Islanders (.384, -1): Ted Nolan’s team has come back down to earth despite Rick DiPietro continuing to play pretty well.

23. Phoenix Coyotes (.376, +1): Steadily improving, but the playoffs are a long way ahead. What will be left of this franchise after this season?

24. Washington Capitals (.372, -10): Olaf Kolzig is good, but not good enough to get this team into the playoffs.

25. Los Angeles Kings (.371, +2): I hope Rob Blake is doing a good job teaching the kids, because he’ll be retired before this team is a contender again.

26. Chicago Blackhawks (.371, -1): This team is going to be frighteningly good in a few years. Will ownership do the same?

27. Pittsburgh Penguins (.368, -4): How patient will this franchise be with their young core? If the Pens can add a legitimate top pair defenceman, it could almost instantly turn this team into a legitimate playoff threat. But the price of such a blueliner would be very, very high.

28. Columbus Blue Jackets (.317, 0): This team can only get better, but it won’t happen fast enough to make a difference this year.

29. St. Louis Blues (.292, 0): Season’s over already. What will they get for Bill Guerin and Keith Tkachuk?

30. Philadelphia Flyers (.218, 0): No one wants the players the Flyers want to dump, and the Flyers don’t want to part with Pitkanen, Richards or Carter. Is Simon Gagne tradeable so soon after signing his big contract?

This week’s power rankings have been updated. This week is also the first week my power rankings will also be the official power rankings at Hockey Leaks, an excellent site that features articles, stats, leaks, rumours and more. From now on, instead of my usual highlights of a few select team, I’ll be posting at least a sentence or two about each and every team.
Teams are ranked in order of Power Rank; my Power Ranks are a statistic that includes winning percentage, schedule difficulty and shots and goals for and against to determine overall team strength. Power Rank can be considered an expected winning percentage if every team faced only “average” or 0.500 teams.
1. San Jose Sharks (Power Rank: 0.639): Three straight wins help the Sharks to just squeak over the Sabres and Ducks. This team never quits, as Detroit found out recently after the Sharks exploded in the second and third periods to erase an early deficit.

2. Anaheim Ducks (0.636): Injuries are hurting, although the Ducks have such a lead in the Conference it hardly seems to matter. All the Ducks need is to be average until they can get their top goaltender and stud blueliner back.

3. Buffalo Sabres (0.632): Martin Biron is far too good to play as few games as he does. Watching this team is a pleasure, so long as you aren’t on the opposing team. They come at you in waves and never, ever let up. Injuries never seem to faze them and the only question now seems to be if this team can win a Stanley Cup before the salary cap forces them to break up their core.

4. Detroit Red Wings (0.574): Detroit is still something of an enigma to me this year. Their superstars started slow and still haven’t really kicked it into high gear, they won’t even dress their starting goaltender the night after a game, their specialty teams have been average, and yet they just keep winning.

5. Nashville Predators (0.571): If this team is this good with Tomas Vokoun injured, imagine how they’ll be when he’s healthy. If the West weren’t so strong this year Nasvhille would be my favourite to take home the Cup this year.

6. New Jersey Devils (0.557): Martin Brodeur is the best goaltender in the world, hands down. In front of that, the Devils only have to be good enough, and they’ve been better than enough of late.

7. Dallas Stars (0.544): No surprises here. Why can’t this team succeed in the playoffs?

8. Montreal Canadians (0.507): Best special teams in the NHL. Christobel Huet is doing his best to prove me wrong and gives his team a chance to win every night. Imagine if this team managed to grab a true #1 centre before the playoffs start.

9. Vancouver Canucks (0.503): Roberto Luongo is making Nonis look like a genius. It’s really not fair to the Panthers than Bertuzzi is injured, but they clearly got the short end of that stick.

10. Carolina Hurricanes (0.498): Possibly the unluckiest team in the league this year. Other teams have faced injuries but no one has faced so many to one position. Is Cam Ward really good enough to backstop them in another long playoff run?

11. Ottawa Senators (0.486): This team is still much better than it has played. I’m not convinced any more that the long-term plan is in place, but short term moves like giving Ray Emery the majority of the starts and trading for Mike Comrie should help this season.

12. Atlanta Thrashers (0.478): I expect this team to be a disappointment in the playoffs mostly due to their inexperience. However, they’re going to continue to make noise in the regular season because Marian Hossa, Kovalchuk and company are just too good not to.

13. Boston Bruins (0.473): Tim Thomas rather fell apart in the last week, and does anyone feel that Hannu Toivonen is ready to take over? The Bruins defencemen are not fleet enough for the speedy teams they’ll face if they manage to make the playoffs.

14. Washington Capitals (0.467): This is not a playoff team but they could be in a year or so. Kolzig and Ovechkin, however, could very well make them a surprise competitor for the last spot in the East.

15. Calgary Flames (0.464): Now begins life without Iginla. As if Alex Tanguay didn’t have enough pressure already…

16. New York Rangers (0.461): When Lundqvist is hot, the Rangers are alright. Unfortunately, relying on a sophomore goaltender to steal you enough games to make the playoffs is not a great idea. Hope the Rangers kept the long term plan they started on a few years ago, because while they’re better than they were supposed to be coming out of the lockout, they’re not as good as they appeared to be last year, either.

17. Toronto Maple Leafs (0.439): Andrew Raycroft keeps showing flashes of brilliance but not enough to steal games. The Marlie call-ups have done well but this team still seems caught between contender and rebuilder. Maurice has still not managed to entirely stamp a new identity on this team, though I would argue that Ferguson has more to do with that.

18. Colorado Avalanche (0.439): Jose Theodore is not good enough for his salary. Unfortunately, without Rob Blake, the Avs need better goaltending than they are getting.

19. Edmonton Oilers (0.426): I feel this team is better than this ranking would suggest. If Keven Lowe manages to work his usual magic and grab an experienced defenceman before the deadline, the Oilers will have a good chance at another run in the playoffs.

20. Minnesota Wild (0.425): This team aught to be a better team on the road, and until they become one they can’t be considered a legitimate threat.

21. New York Islanders (0.424): Slipping down the standings after a great start. Maybe next year?

22. Tampa Bay Lightning (0.418): I can’t see it happening any time soon, but this team needs to lose one of its three big forwards for some defensive help. Wouldn’t a Pavel Kubina for Vincent Lecavalier trade be hilarious?

23. Pittsburgh Penguins (0.407): Need defensive help. Anyone taking bets on which of Staal or Malkin and when it happens?

24. Phoenix Coyotes (0.402): Recent upsurge is slowing the firesale but won’t stop it. Still not a playoff team and far too many of the core players are UFA’s this summer. This team is simply poorly managed, with virtually nothing to show for season after season of disappointment.

25. Chicago Blackhawks (0.400): Started to get better and they lose Havlat again. This team seems to be well managed and could very well become a playoff team within a season or two. But not this year.

26. Florida Panthers (0.395): The loss of Luongo hurts and the Panthers don’t seem to have anything to show for it. Not good for the future of the franchise.

27. Los Angeles Kings (0.368): Dan Cloutier, as many expected, has been a disappointment. The Kings really made a mistake with that trade, and it’s showing.

28. Columbus Blue Jackets (0.353): The talent is there, and now so is the coaching. Hope Hitchcock is as patient as he is good, however, because it’s a long road up from the basement.

29. St. Louis Blues (0.302): The only positive you can say is they’re better than…

30. Philadelphia Flyers (0.276): Unquestionably the worst team in the league.

New Power Rankings are up for January 3, 2007.  For this week’s rankings I have gone back to “raw” power rank, that is, without the inclusion of offensive and defensive stats.  This accounts for the significant movement of rankings this week.  I am working on including both each team’s offensive and defensive stats but also the same stats of their opponents.  When I am finished I will update the rankings again.  Until then, here are some highlights:

1. Buffalo Sabres (+3 from last week): Currently sit with the best winning percentage in the NHL.  Oddly enough, they have an off/def rating under 1.000, meaning they take and score fewer shots and goals than they give up, yet they still have picked up more than 3 out of every 4 possible points this year.

8. New Jersey Devils (+5):  Manage to win games despite getting outshot on a regular basis.  Anyone surprised?  Didn’t think so.  New Jersey is so effective not only because of Martin Brodeur but because they do a great job limiting the quality, if not quantity, of opponents’ chances.

15. Washington Capitals (+8): I still look back when Washington had that big free agent sale a few years ago (Bondra, etc.) and Olaf Kolzig was resigned instead of traded and wish the Leafs had picked him up.  This guy keeps the Caps in games they have no business being in and has helped them to a nearly 0.500 record despite being baddly, baddly outshot almost every single night.

17. Toronto Maple Leafs (-8): They were headed this way even with the inclusion of the off/def stats, but taking them out quickened the fall.  Simply not winning enough games to let anyone have confidence they’ll remain in the playoff picture.  The standings are flattering if you ignore the games played.  If you look at my paced final standings instead, you’ll see the Leafs on pace to finish in 11th place.

30. Philadelphia Flyers (0): Nothing can help the Flyers it seems.  They still maintain their rock-bottom place in my power rankings, just like the NHL standings.

New Power Rankings are up.  Here are some highlights.

9. Toronto Maple Leafs (-3 from last week): If offensive and defensive stats are left out, the Leafs drop down to 15th.  The still haven’t dropped below 0.500 since their first game of the season, but they’re barely staying over that mark, either.  With injuries starting to thin the ranks, the young players and the fringe players need to pick up the pace if the Leafs have any hope of moving up the standings and making the playoffs.

15. Ottawa Senators (-5): Still plagued by inconsistencies.  Martin Gerber has played a few good games but still isn’t earning his big paycheck.  With Jason Spezza out long term the Senators are back to facing questions about making the playoffs and not about making a deep run.

18. New York Rangers (-7): Struggling of late.  Were the off-season signings mistakes?  Before last year’s surprising success, the Rangers were supposedly working on a long-term plan.  Is that still in place?  With the Rangers currently on pace for about an 82 point season, their fans better hope so.

30. Philadelphia Flyers (-2): The firing of Ken Hitchcock is looking more and more like a mistake.  While injuries have certainly played a part, the recent success of the Columbus Blue Jackets suggests that the coaching was not the problem.

I’ve posted updates to the Power Rankings as well as the expected standings and other tables. They look different and I apologize for the quality. This is a rush job as my main computer is still out of commission. I’ve ordered all the parts for my new computer and should be back up and running by early next week. In the meantime, here are some highlights from this week’s power rankings:

Top Five: Detroit, Anaheim, San Jose, Buffalo, Dallas; and Bottom Five: Pittsburgh, Columbus, Philadelphia, Phoenix, St. Louis (no change from last week): The top five and bottom five teams remained entirely unchanged since last week, suggesting that while the middle pack of teams remain very much in a tight race, the best and the worst teams are settling down. Without a significant winning or losing streak, it will be difficult for any of these teams to move much in my power rankings. This is true because every single stat used to determine the power rankings are cumulative. Every game has less impact than the one preceding it because every game is a smaller percentage of total games played than the one before.

6. Toronto Maple Leafs (+5): Three straight wins, a bucket of goals and a power play working at over 40% in that time. The Leafs have a very good chance to build a long winning streak in the next week or so with no really difficult opponents on the horizon. They’ll need all the points they can get however, as despite vaulting back into a playoff spot, most of the teams around and below them have one or more games in hand.

10. Ottawa Senators (+3): Still having trouble with consistency, but Sens fans have to be happy that Jason Spezza at least is finding the net regularly. If Wade Redden can get healthy and play up to his potential, this team should get rolling.

11. New York Rangers (-3): When they were winning, they were giving up far too many shots. Now they’ve got the flu bug going through the dressing room and they’ve struggled mightily.

14. New Jersey Devils (-5): Still giving up more shots than they should, although the Devils are very good at limiting the quality, if not quantity of chances. With Martin Brodeur, that is often good enough.

24. Minnesota Wild (-2): I expected the Wild to cool off after their hot start but not this much. Manny Fernandez aught to be better than this. So should the Wild.

New Power Rankings are up. Here are some highlights:

8. New York Rangers (+3 from last week): Strong performances from both Kevin Weeks and Henrik Lundqvist are the good news. The worry of course is that without those dominant performances, the Rangers easily could have slipped in the opposite direction instead. Better defensive play will be needed but the Rangers are settling down as a solid playoff contender as the season progresses.

9. New Jersey Devils (+6): Biggest increase from last week. Martin Brodeur is his usual self. The top line is healthy and producing. They couldn’t hold of the Buffalo Sabres, which may show how the team lacks offensive depth to compete with the best teams in the league.

11. Toronto Maple Leafs (-3): Finally snapped their losing streak at 7 games. Their offensive stats have slipped since the start of the season and their defensive stats are bottom third in the league. The Leafs maintain their spot in the power rankings due mostly to their strong start. They’ll need more than a single victory over the decent but not great Tampa Bay Lightning to to fight their way back into a playoff spot.

22. Minnesota Wild (-3): Early in the year I worked hard to try and acquire Manny Fernandez for my hockey pool. I’m now glad I was unsuccessful and landed Evgeni Nabokov, instead. The Wild have now slipped further than I expected them to, though continuing problems with injuries haven’t helped.

27. Columbus Blue Jackets (+2): Now this is why Hitchcock was brought on board. The big guns are scoring and the team is winning. Long road to climb but they’ve started up that road. This team could be and still should be better.

*update: I found a bug with the power rankings, and have fixed it.  Power rankings are once again updated, with the “last week” now showing the rankings as they were posted yesterday.  I’ve left my highlights as they were, due to time constraints*

As promised, here are the highlights from yesterday’s updated power rankings.

3. Buffalo Sabres (-1 from last week): Are the poster boys for the new NHL starting to slip up? Buffalo hasn’t had a great week, though with the Sabres that probably will just make them more dangerous from here on out.

7. Atlanta Thrashers (+8): Scoring in bunches, and getting solid goaltending from both Johan Hedberg and Kari Lehtonen. This team would love to get the consistency in their crease by having one of the two, preferably Lehtonen, really take over as the definite starter. Still, Atlanta has to prefer the goaltending this year to last year’s endless stream of injuries.

8. Toronto Maple Leafs (-1): Deserve a bigger drop than this, and are only held up by the huge advantage in shots they built up at the start of the season. Giving up third period leads is a bad, bad sign, and the Leafs have done so repeatedly in the last week. That was the trend that killed the Senators early in the season, and the Leafs can’t afford to continue that trend.

9. Ottawa Senators (+5): Speaking of the Senators, Martin Gerber is finally starting to earn his keep, giving the Senators a solid 1-2 tandem, though neither I nor Bryan Murray is prepared to take all the starts away from red-hot Ray Emery as of yet. The Senators are finally playing like they should, though they still have a long way to go before they can compete for one of the top spots in the conference.

19. Minnesota Wild (-9): The slide continues. The Wild desperately need Marian Gaborik and Pavol Demitra back.

30. St. Louis Blues (-2): The Blue Jackets have finally won a few games, and the Blues slide down into that last spot. Less disappointing than last year, but only because expectations were higher.

New Power Rankings are up.  Highlights will be posted tomorrow.