NHL analysis

Well, now that the regular season is over, so is the first season of my game predictions.  I ended up with 708 correct predictions on 1230 games, for a percentage of 57.6%.  Shootouts were my Achilles heel, for certain.  In April alone, my predictions were wrong for 7 of the 8 games that went into a shootout.

I met one of my goals for predictions, beating out both the home team winning percentage (53.3%) and the expected winners based on points (56.8%).  My other goal was to be over 60% for the year, which unfortunately I did not reach.

For next year I’m confident I can improve on my record.  The major change I’m already planning on implementing is including “recent” results into my power rankings and thus, into my game predictions.  That will bring hot and cold streaks into the mix and should help a great deal.  I’m also going to continue to include goals for and against, but throw out shots taken and allowed, after seeing how those stats punished certain teams.  Who cares if you give up 30 shots per game if your team GAA is top 10 in the league?

Power Rankings have been updated for March 20, 2007.

Biggest moves upwards were Minnesota and Colorado (each +5).

Biggest move downwards was Tampa Bay (-6).

Edmonton continued to fall, while St. Louis continues to rise.

Power Rankings have been updated for March 13, 2007.  Check the tab at the top of the page .

Power Rankings have been updated for February 28, 2007.

The movement has definitely died down on the rankings, due to the fact that my rankings take into account the entire season without emphasizing recent games.  I’m going to be taking a long look at the rankings in the off-season and will likely change how I calculate the rankings for next year, probably giving the most recent 5 or 10 games more importance to better illustrate how a team performs as the season progresses.

I still think my Power Rankings are a pretty solid indicator team strength, but only if you keep in mind that I emphasize shots taken and allowed.  Teams can win when they’re regularly outshot and can lose when they outshoot their opponents.  As with any stats, take them with a grain of salt.

Power Rankings are up for February 13, 2007.  Check out the rankings here or head to Hockey Leaks to read my thoughts on them.

New Power Rankings are up for February 6, 2007.  Head over to Hockey Leaks to see my comments or my Power Ranks page to see the sorted list.

New Power Rankings are up.

1. Detroit Red Wings (0.803, 0 change)
The Wings remain untouchable in my Power Rankings, due mostly to their ridiculously low shots allowed per game.  They certainly do their best to make things easy on Dominic Hasek.

2. Anaheim Ducks (0.710, 0)
The Ducks got good news – the return of JS Giguere, Chris Pronger and Francois Beauchemain – and bad news – the loss of captain Scott Niedermayer – in the same week.  The good and bad seems to have mostly balanced out, though the Ducks lost their dominance in the West as they struggled through their injuries.

3. San Jose Sharks (0.687, 0)
Evgeni Nabokov continues to play well but lose games.  The Sharks have stayed with their rotation, as neither Toskala nor Nabokov has played more than a single game in a row all year long.  They will be fielding calls for one or both of their netminders for the next month, but have yet to make a decision on which one is their man going forward.

4. Buffalo Sabres (0.582, 0)
The Sabres haven’t dropped in the standings but that won’t last if the Sabres don’t turn their slide around.  Word out of Buffalo is that Martin Biron will get the start Tuesday night, and possibly Thursday as well, to give Ryan Miller the chance to refocus.

5. New Jersey Devils (0.569, +2)
So much for the theory Martin Brodeur’s success hinged on a dominant defence corps.

6. Ottawa Senators (0.567, 0)
The loss to Montreal was a bitter pill to swallow, as the Senators are mounting a steady climb with the Habs the next team to climb over.  Jason Spezza’s return was little more than a whisper.

7. Dallas Stars (0.557, -2)
Mike Modano is inching closer to a return.  He can’t return fast enough for the Stars.

8. Carolina Hurricanes (0.550, +1)
The Hurricanes are on pace to finish a full 10 points below Atlanta in the standings, but my Predicted Final Standings show the Canes taking the Division title.  Even with all their injuries, the Canes have remained competitive.  Their moves leading up to the trade deadline will say much about the chances this team has this year.

9. Vancouver Canucks (0.548, +2)
Roberto Luongo continues to play inspired hockey.  If Markus Nasland can start to score (the Canucks have to be interested in grabbing Forsberg) this team will be a lock to make the playoffs.

10. Nashville Predators (0.544, 0)
The Predators deserve a better spot in the Power Rankings, missing out because they give up too many shots.  With Vokoun and Mason behind them, that hardly seems to matter.

11. Tampa Bay Lightning (0.526, -3)
Do they have enough to squeak into the playoffs again?  Unlikely.

12. Toronto Maple Leafs (0.515, 0)
When Raycroft plays his best, this team is almost unbeatable.  If only he could do so regularly.

13. Colorado Avalanche (0.482, 0)
Can they find a better solution than Jose Theodore?  Can they find a solution to the elephant sized problem that is Theodore’s salary and poor play?

14. Florida Panthers (0.468, +1)
Ed Belfour is playing better than anyone gave him credit for when he signed last summer.  Despite Florida’s stronger play of late, it is unlikely they have the depth to beat out the teams around – and above – them in the standings.

15. New York Rangers (0.464, +3)
I expected Henrik Lundqvist to suffer a sophomore slump and be the problem in New York this year.  His play has been stellar, but the team around him has not been.  The Rangers are still one of the better teams fighting for the last few playoff spots, however.

16. Montreal Canadians (0.455, -2)
A recent win over the surging Senators was huge for the struggling Habs.  If they can string together a few more, they might help to solidify their playoff spot, which has been less and less solid for the last few weeks.

17. Atlanta Thrashers (0.450, -1)
My Power Rankings have been predicting a slide in Atlanta for months.  What do the Thrashers need more: defensive help or a top centerman?

18. Calgary Flames (0.434, -1)
They didn’t pay too high of a price, but Craig Conray may not have been the answer.  I would however expect at least a slight upsurge out of Conroy, which can only help the Flames short term.

19. Minnesota Wild (0.434, 0)
Anyone remember the Wild’s amazing start to the season?

20. Pittsburgh Penguins (0.410, +7)
Wow, what a surge!  Behind the inspired play of Mark Recchi the Penguins are making a serious push for the playoffs.

21. Edmonton Oilers (0.401, 0)
Petr Nedved has disappeared.  Petr Sykora disappeared a long time ago.  Helps explain why the Oilers are reportedly so interested in Darcy Tucker.

22. New York Islanders (0.386, 0)
Good enough to make the race interesting, but look for the Islanders to miss the playoffs again.

23. Boston Bruins (0.375, -3)
It has become clear that the tandem of Tim Thomas and Hannu Toivonen is simply not enough to get this team into the playoffs.  Who will the Bruins target for the trade deadline?

24. Chicago Blackhawks (0.367, +2)
I really feel bad for the city of Chicago.  Its fans and its players deserve better than the ownership seems willing to give.  It’ll be another long summer in Chicago.

25. Phoenix Coyotes (0.361, -2)
How much can the Coyotes squeeze in exchange for Shane Doan, Ladislav Nagy, Curtis Joseph and their other veteran assets?  Look for Doan, at least, to be traded as soon as the Coyotes find the right offer.

26. Washington Capitals (0.359, -2)
Do the Capitals look to trade Richard Zednik before the deadline?  He could bring a decent return from a team not willing to spend what it takes to grab Forsberg.

27. Los Angeles Kings (0.357, -2)
The future looks bright for this team.  But not the short-term future.  Sean Burke?

28. Columbus Blue Jackets (0.345, 0)
Who gets traded before the deadline?

29. St. Louis Blues (0.336, 0)
What can the Blues get for Eric Brewer?

30. Philadelphia Flyers (0.223, 0)
What can the Flyers get for Forsberg?

It’s wonderful how few teams are definitely out of the playoff picture, but for those few that are out, it’s tough to find much to say beyond speculating over who will be left when March rolls around.

Power Rankings for January 23, 2007 are up.

Power Rankings are a combination of winning percentage, schedule difficulty, offensive and defensive statistics (shots and goals for and allowed per game) and opponent offensive and defensive stats. Each team is listed with its Power Rank and the change from its ranking last week. There is significant movement this week, in part because last week’s rankings did not include offensive and defensive statistics.

1. Detroit Red Wings (0.803, no change from last week)

Facing the expected challenge for top spot in the division from the Nashville Predators. Desperately hoping the injury to Henrik Zetterberg is not serious.

2. Anaheim Ducks (0.711, 0)

Struggling without Chris Pronger and JS Giguerre. Who wouldn’t? Hopefully their divisional rivals don’t forget that those injuries are temporary.

3. San Jose Sharks (0.674, 0)

The Kyle Calder trade hasn’t worked out but it hardly seems to matter. When does this team trade a goalie for some help on the blueline?

4. Buffalo Sabres (0.600, 0)

Struggling lately but this team never quits. For the fans of this franchise, I hope they manage to squeeze top value out of someone when they trade Martin Biron. If they can’t, don’t be shocked to see Chris Drury or Daniel Briere’s names show up in trade rumours.

5. Ottawa Senators (0.573, +2)

Rolling along as expected. Once again, this team’s real season doesn’t start until the 83^rd game.

6. New Jersey Devils (0.570, 0)

Is the blueline deep enough for a playoff run? Even Martin Brodeur needs help sometimes.

7. Dallas Stars (0.569, -2)

Injuries are starting to take their tole. Was Eric Lindros really a better way of spending money than Bill Guerin?

8. Vancouver Canucks (0.551, +3)

Hottest team in the NHL right now. If you’re a Canucks’ fan, just try not to think of an injury to Luongo.

9. Carolina Hurricanes (.542, 0)

I try not to lend too much weight to the inconsistency of a team with so many of its top defencemen out, but this is not the same team as last year. If Cam Ward falters, the Canes really don’t have a backup plan.

10. Tampa Bay Lightning (.533, -2)

With so much salary tied up in three players, the Lightning need those three to dominate. When they don’t, this team loses. Seems to work relatively well this regular season but can any of those three carry the team through the only 16 wins that really matter?

11. Nashville Predators (0.529, -1)

Best winning percentage in the league right now, but also one of the easiest schedules. This team is hungry and has perhaps the best goaltending in the league. Watch out.

12. Colorado Avalanche (0.503, +1)

The injury to John-Michael Liles hurts a blueline that wasn’t deep enough to start with.

13. Toronto Maple Leafs (0.501, -1)

Have little trouble with the Lightning but get smoked by the Penguins. Is that the Leafs’ season in a nutshell?

14. Calgary Flames (0.464, +3)

Starting to win on the road as well as at home. That’s good news.

15. Montreal Canadiens (0.456, +3)

Sheldon Souray is on pace to shatter the record for power-play goals by a defenceman. Enjoy your last year in Montreal, Sheldon.

16. Florida Panthers (0.454, -1)

Auld has struggled adjusting to a weaker team than he’s used to despite being given every opportunity. And Ed Belfour’s back can no longer handle the weight of an entire team.

17. New York Rangers (0.446, -3)

No consistency, and rumours of trouble in the locker room. Bad combination.

18. Atlanta Thrashers (0.441, 0)

As expected, the Thrashers lack a centerman capable of keeping up with their wingers. Have they called Jason Allison?

19. Minnesota Wild (0.428, 0)

Marian Gaborik has been on fire since his return. This is good – shows what the team can do – but also bad – shows what can happen if even one injury occurs.

20. Edmonton Oilers (0.417, +1)

Help will be coming before the trade deadline. What will it cost Kevin Lowe?

21. Boston Bruins (0.395, -1)

How long until Tuuka Raask is ready for the NHL?

22. Pittsburgh Penguins (0.394, +5)

I was surprised that Mark Recchi would choose to come back to Sidney’s team, but he really looks like he wants to play.

23. New York Islanders (0.378, -1)

When does the big sale start in Long Island?

24. Phoenix Coyotes (0.365, -1)

Finally on something of a role. Still one of the worst managed teams in the league.

25. Washington Capitals (0.364, -1)

The Caps are almost a 0.500 hockey club. Much more fun to watch than I would have guessed, even when Ovechkin’s not on the ice.

26. Chicago Blackhawks (0.362, 0)

Could Khabibulin be on his way back out of Chicago?

27. Los Angeles Kings (0.349, -2)

Even before the injury, the Dan Cloutier trade was a disaster. It’s now officially a catastrophe. Hopefully the Kings at least cemented some goodwill with Nonis.

28. St. Louis Blues (0.333, +1)

Where will Bill Guerin and Keith Tkachuk end up?

29. Columbus Blue Jackets (0.333, -1)

How long term will this team plan? Will we see veterans being dumped or are they confident Hitchcock can turn the ship around as early as next year?

30. Philadelphia Flyers (0.215, 0)

No surprises here, and nothing to say.