NHL analysis

After plenty of tweaking (and some wholesale changes), my weekly Power Rankings are good to go.

I started looking at Power Rankings a few years ago as a way to measure the relative “strength” of teams. Points is a very poor standard because at any given time some teams have played more games than others. Winning percentage is better but doesn’t take into account the difficulty of each teams’ schedule. And so, last year I developed a formula that took into account winning percentage and the average winning percentage of each team’s opponents (weighted for games played). But I still wasn’t happy.

This year I have made two major changes to my Power Rankings. First, I’ve incorporated recent success and schedule difficulty, hoping to show how hot or cold streaks can dramatically influence how strong a team is. So now the most recent games a team plays count for more than the teams played at the beginning of the year.

The second change was unplanned until a few days ago. I realized that giving teams extra credit merely for playing strong teams - regardless of how many points they managed to pick up in those games - was just as bad as ignoring schedule difficulty. The answer? I now include in my calculations an adjusted winning percentage which is calculated based on how well a team does against each team. So beating strong team counts for more than beating a weak team. Toronto receives more than one “point” for their overtime loss against Ottawa opening night. However, they receive no credit for losing to Ottawa the next day.

Anyways, I hope these changes result in a more accurate ranking of just how good the NHL teams are. I have some final tweaking to finish off, but will begin posting power rankings and game predictions sometime in the next week.

Phew. I’ve waited a full day before commenting on my Leafs’ atrocious 7-1 collapse against the Carolina Hurricanes. I figured I was just about calm enough to analyze what happened rationally rather than rant and rave (remember, it was merely one game - how good does any team, any individual, anything look when you isolate the bottom of its barrel?

Then I saw this article this morning from Steve Simmons and my calm mood got thrown out the window.

This is John Ferguson’s legacy. He made the mess but can’t clean it up. Question is: Can anyone?

First off, yes, the Leafs have problems. They gave up too many goals a year ago, they’ve given up too many goals this year. But let’s at least be fair year. When you’ve played but 4 games, one outing where your opponent nets 7 markers stilts the average just a bit beyond reasonable. The Leafs currently sport an ugly 4.25 GAA, but removing the blowout against the Hurricanes drops that to 3.33 - still ugly, but far less atrocious. If you count only Vesa Toskala’s first two games the GAA drops to about a 2.5.

Fair to remove the worst two outcomes of a 4 game season? Of course not! But recognize that the Leafs ugly totals in goals against have far more to do with the fourth game they’ve played than with the three that preceded it.

The commitment was made by Ferguson to build this team around the most expensive defence in the National Hockey League. That wasn’t the plan — there never has been a plan — but it’s how things have worked out.

Seven million a year for McCabe.

OK, here’s where Simmons loses me entirely. For the record, as if it hasn’t been pointed out enough times already, McCabe’s salary this season is different from his salary cap hit. That he’s taking home over $7 million this season does not mean he uses up $7 million in cap space - his average salary over the course of his contract is $5.75 million.

Would discussing McCabe’s faults as a $5.75 million defenceman rather than a $7 million man have changed the argument? No! So why make yourself look silly with such a glaring error?

It’s no surprise I’m not a fan of Bryan McCabe, particularly his monster contract. It’s no secret that I think the Leafs would be better off benching him and playing a rookie in his place most nights. It’s no enigma that I feel his albatross of a contract is what does - and most frightening, will - tie the Leafs’ hands when attempting to lure a replacement for Mats Sundin.

However, there’s more to this story than McCabe tripping over his own skates for $5.75 million per season.

As David Johnson pointed out recently, little separates the Leafs and the supposed cream of the crop Ottawa Senators. The Leafs stack up quite well against their provincial rivals in terms of goals scored and shots allowed. The difference between the two teams over the past two years has boiled down almost entirely to goaltending - as in the Sens have had it and the Leafs have not. The supposedly sloppy and invisible Leafs defence gave up about 150 shots less than the Senators did last season.

Behind the Net is really making me take a closer look at the Leafs’ blueline, notably Bryan McCabe. Statistics do not back up McCabe’s label as the sloppy, offense-not-defence blueliner. The Leafs goals against average with McCabe on the ice last season was 2.63 (these numbers count only 5-on-5 play, something I will get to in a minute); with McCabe off the ice the GAA rose to 2.72. In other words, the Blue’n'White were a little better at keeping the puck out of their own net with McCabe on the ice than on the bench.

I think there are three reasons why McCabe gets so much heat for his play: firstly, his contract is monstrous. He’s the highest paid player on the team - he makes more than Mats Sundin, more than Toskala and Raycroft combined (not true after this season, but close), just a bit more than Nik Antropov and Jason Blake combined. With big money comes big responsibility, and when McCabe tries to do too much, he inevitably fails. He’s much better at being a $3 million defenceman than a $5.75 million dollar one.

Secondly, McCabe is prone to making the glaring, brutally obvious giveaways. When he decides to make a gaff, he goes all-out - gift wrapped and hand-delivered. Contrast that to Hal Gill, who is often stripped by fleeter opposing forwards but tends to at least maintain position and presence afterwards, McCabe’s giveaways look worse and draw far more attention.

And thirdly, the Leafs don’t play McCabe to his strengths. Bryan McCabe has played nearly five minutes per game short-handed so far this season. Now, I know the Leafs are short-handed alot, and I know they’re a bit short on shut-down defenceman, but 5 minutes a night short-handed is just ridiculous for Byran McCabe. I know they lack the size, but give more of this time to the swifter (and more sound positionally!) Tomas Kaberle or Ian White. Give it to the more defensive-minded Andy Wozniewski.

McCabe’s contract is a reality the Leafs have to deal with but it’s not as bad as some make it out to be. But both he and the Leafs need to start playing to his (and their) strengths before it’s too late.

Major Additions: Jocelyn Thibeault

Major Subtractions: Daniel Briere, Chris Drury, Dainius Zubrus, Ty Conklin, Martin Biron*

Analysis

Yes, Biron was lost a year ago, not over this summer. However, the first full season for the Sabres without him will place additional pressure on Ryan Miller. While he seems more than capable of handling that pressure, this team now lacks a fail-safe in goal should Miller be injured.

Of course the loss of co-captains and offensive leaders Drury and Briere remain the most obvious change, though the Sabres are perhaps the one team in the league that is well-suited to handle such losses without missing a step. Obviously the team has taken a step backwards, and it’s anyone’s guess how players like Thomas Vanek, Derek Roy and Maxim Afinogenov will handle the pressure of being the main show instead of the supporting cast. No one doubts the farm team can fill the ranks with capable players, but leadership on and off the ice now falls squarely on the shoulders of players without much experience in such roles.

Personally, I barely see this team slowing down, let alone stumbling. Think back to the days just after the lockout, when Buffalo chose to ice what was then considered a weak, inexperienced, sub-par roster because of their unwillingness to spend up to the salary cap. Sure worked out well for the team. There’s a reason that Lindy Ruff is the longest-serving coach in the league, and those predicting a big fall from the Sabres are about to discover what that is.

Major Additions: Luke Richardson, Shean Donovan

Major Subtractions: Mike Comrie, Tom Preissing, Peter Schaefer

Analysis

Patience didn’t save John Muckler’s job, but it may have been just what the Ottawa Senators needed.

Remember the start of last season, when everyone was calling for the team to trade Daniel Alfredsson? The Senators struggled early a year ago but keeping the team together was obviously the right decision. Fast forward to the summer, when trade rumours surrounded Martin Gerber right through pre-season (where he played extremely well). With Ray Emery on the shelf for an undetermined time-frame, Gerber is the go-to guy in Canada’s capital once again. The Senators may still look to trade him, if only to free up cap space in their attempts to re-sign Danny Heatley, Jason Spezza and Wade Redden before the summer, but it won’t happen anytime soon.

The Senators went deep into the playoffs last year and kept most of their team together, but that doesn’t mean they’re the automatic favourites in the East. The loss of Preissing (the Sens’ highest scoring blueliner last year), Comrie and Schaefer mean the team once again lacks scoring depth behind its big three of Alfredsson, Spezza and Heatley. If enough teams learn from the convincing five-game thrashing the Anaheim Ducks delivered the Senators in the Cup finals, we may see more teams take a hard, fast, rugged forecheck against this team. While defencemen Anton Volchenkov and Chris Phillips can handle that, the rest of the defencemen are notoriously less prepared for it. Redden, in particular, seems to have trouble justifying his $6.5 million contract when he’s playing in his own end.

Other question marks remain but most are minor at worst. The team will have a tough time keeping its core together past this year, so they know this might be their best chance of winning as a group. The Senators have to be considered the favourites to win the East this year.