NHL analysis

Major Additions: Vesa Toskala, Mark Bell, Jason Blake, Scott Clemmenson

Major Subtractions: Michael Peca, Jeff O’Neil, J.S. Aubin

Analysis

John Ferguson Junior must be sweating by now. With one of his major acquisitions, Bell, suspended for at least 15 games, and a second, Toskala, shaky at best in his pre-season appearances, it’s not looking so good for the Leafs so far - lucky the games don’t start counting for another few days.

Let’s be honest here - Toskala should be better than we’ve seen so far. For that matter, Andrew Raycroft should be better than he was a year ago, now that he has some competition in the crease and a little less pressure.

Now how about the bad news? The bad news is the Leafs give up too many high quality scoring chances, their best player isn’t getting any younger, and they continue to trade away draft picks like they’re going out of style. This is a team desperate to win - finally - but not desperate for a Stanley Cup. And therein lies the problem.

I try not to pay much attention to pre-season games but there are some distressing signs from the perspective of a Leafs’ fan. I’m not overly concerned by Toskala’s early troubles (it’s been about 5 months since Toskala played in NHL game that counted; he deserves some time to get his timing back); I’m prepared to be patient with him. What does concern me is the continuation of the problems that plagued the team last year, problems that were far more troubling to me last season than when Raycroft struggled. Too many defensive lapses. Too many opponents given too much time in the Leafs’ zone. Too many missed opportunities to clear the puck away from danger zones. Too many penalties. These are problems that cannot be fixed by adding a goaltender or a 40-goal scorer. These are systematic, horrific lapses in judgment and discipline, on a team and individual level, that if left unchecked will doom a team - any team. And this is particularly important here because the Leafs, unlike many teams, do not have the skill or the talent to make up for these lapses.

Part of me really wants Blake to score 40 or more, Toskala to shine and the Leafs to roar into the playoffs and score a huge upset over the Senators in the first round. But realistically, I can’t see this team making the playoffs. And part of me thinks that could be the best thing that could happen to the franchise.

Major Additions: Roman Hamrlik, Bryan Smolinski, Patrice Brisebois, Tom Kostopolous

Major Subtractions: David Abeischer, Sheldon Souray, Radek Bonk, Mike Johnson, Sergei Samsonov

Analysis

What will be the story for the Canadiens this year - their inability to land a free agent forward or the continuing growth of their young talent?

It remains unclear whether blue-chip prospect Carey Price will be given the chance to share the pipes with Christobel Huet or sent back to the farm club for further seasoning. The good news is that the other alternative, Jaroslav Halak, played admirably at the end of last season as the Habs made a late push towards the playoffs. The failure of that push cannot be laid at the feet of Halak.

Despite the presence of three quality goaltenders, the crease situation in Montreal is not as clear as it may appear. Huet has been stellar since he came out of nowhere to steal the job of Jose Theodore two years ago, but it cannot be ignored that the tailspin that cost the Habs a playoff spot last year came well before Huet was injured. Halak was brilliant but has a grand total of 16 games NHL experience. Price is already being hailed as the future of the franchise but has never played a regular season game in the NHL. Still, you have to believe at least one of these goaltenders can provide what Montreal needs.

Up front not much has changed. The loss of Johnson and Bonk will be felt on penalty kill, though Smolinski will help alleviate their loss while providing a little more punch offensively. The Habs have to hope they stay healthy and (especially) get more out of Alexei Kovalev. They have the talent to score goals - it’s just a question of experience, depth and health.

On the blueline, Hamrlik may not have Souray’s cannon from the point but he’s no slouch offensively and will be much more responsible in his own end - on balance a definite improvement. Craig Rivet didn’t play much last year (either injured or benched) and the team is hoping the loss of his experience and leadership will be offset by the return of Brisebois.

Enough improvement to make the playoffs? My gut says no. It’s not so much that the Habs aren’t a quality team; it’s just that their improvements are marginal at best while teams like Florida added more. If the Canadiens can regain and maintain the specialty teams form with which they started last year with, however, they will be a force to be reckoned with.

Major Additions: Manny Fernandez, Shawn Thornton, Peter Schaefer, Carl Soderberg

Major Subtractions: Joey MacDonald, Nathan Dempsey, Petr Tenkrat, Jason York, Sean Donovan, Hannu Toivonen

Analysis

Oh the sorry Bruins. Still reeling from the awful trade that sent superstar Joe Thornton away for spare parts, Boston has a new coach, a new goalie and hopes to at least get itself out of the basement of the North East division - but the road will be a long one.

First, the good news - there are not many teams with a 1-2 punch at centre as talented as Marc Savard and Patrice Bergeron. If Phil Kessel plays pivot on the third line, make that one of the best (and youngest!) 1-2-3 punches. He could also be played on the wing with one of the previous two players, adding substantial speed in exchange for a little depth.

More good news: Manny Fernandez is a proven starter who will play a substantial role in bringing down the Bruins’ woeful 3.48 goals-against per game from a year ago (29th in the league).

Now for the sobering bad news: Fernandez is used to playing in a substantial defensive system and will have a rude welcome playing without that bulwark in front of him. Boston’s blueline remains big but slow and the fast, skilled forwards - so plentiful in the Northeast division - can skate circles around them all night long.

Now for the really bad news: Boston finished last in this division last year and not much looks ready to change. Montreal treaded water but most of their core is fairly young and should be a little better this season. Toronto added a goaltender. Buffalo lost ground but remain far ahead of the Bruins in every department. And the Senators lost virtually nothing from a year ago and look poised to dominate the division and maybe the conference. With 8 games against each of those opponents, the Bruins face a tough schedule.

With new head coach Claude Julien (who deserved a better deal than he received from the Devils last season) and several important pieces either added or maturing (Fernandez and Bergeron/Kessel, respectively), the Bruins should be a much better team than a year ago. But they are not likely to move much in the standings or in their point total, because every improvement they have made has been at least matched by nearly every team around and above them in the conference. Fernandez is no Thomas Vokoun. Schaefer is no Scott Gomez or Chris Drury. And the list goes on.

If Montreal or Toronto falls apart, the Bruins could move up the list. But on their own? Don’t count on it.

Major Additions: Aaran Asham, Ian Moran, Noah Clarke, Vitaly Vishnevski, Kevin Weekes, Karel Rachunek, Danius Zubrus

Major Subtractions: Jim Fahey, Dan LaCouture, Scott Clemmesen, Brad Lukowich, Brian Rafalski, Scott Gomez

Analysis

Last summer the Devils spent most of their time scrambling to deal with their salary cap troubles, due mostly to the salaries of Alexander Mogilny and Vladmir Malakhov counting against the cap while not playing for the team. Those salaries are now gone and the Devils came into the summer with their two cornerstones - Martin Brodeur and Patrik Elias - already signed long term. Despite all of that, the Devils were unable (or unwilling?) to resign UFA Scott Gomez or Brian Rafalski.

So now what do we expect? Certainly not a repeat as division championship - the Penguins were only 2 points back last year and got better where the Devils got worse. Certainly not missing the playoffs - so long as Brodeur stays healthy he can be expected to almost single-handedly drag his team into the playoffs if that’s what it takes.

The argument can be made that New Jersey quite rightly was unwilling to overpay to keep Gomez around, however, it’s hard to make that argument about Rafalski; furthermore, the addition of Zubrus, while more affordable and fair than the grossly inflated $7+ million per year contract Gomez landed, does not adequately replace Gomez’s production. For that, the Devils will lean on newly re-signed Zach Parise and hope he can handle the weight.

The Atlantic division is entirely up for grabs this year. The Penguins are the early favourites for many but they are young and it wouldn’t be a stretch to see them regress this season. The Flyers are hugely improved but big changes often necessitate an adjustment period before they pay dividends. Ditto for the Rangers. I’d have to pick the Rangers to lead the pack, followed by the Penguins, which means the Devils will be in a dogfight for the playoffs rather than for home-ice advantage (best that 3rd place in a division can hope for is 5th seed).

Major Additions: Mike Weaver, Ty Conklin, Jeff Taffe, Darryl Sydor, Danny Sabourin, Petr Sykora

Major Subtractions: Jocelyn Thibault, Michel Ouellet

Analysis

Well, I’m no Ian Mendes, so I’m not going to argue that the Penguins will miss the playoffs this season, though I can see some cause for concern.

First off, the likes of Petr Sykora, Mark Recchi and Gary Roberts aren’t getting any younger. How much longer can they continue to play at a high level? For another, as Mendes points out, it’s not unheard of for young teams to go through a sophomore slump of sorts after a surprisingly successful season. Finally, the Atlantic Division is looking like one of the toughest in the league this summer, with the Flyers and Rangers making some huge free agent acquisitions. The Devils and Islanders both took steps backwards but both boast excellent goaltending and coaching.

The flip side, obviously, is that the Pens boast the best player in the league surrounded by a number of excellent young forwards and defencemen. With both Crosby and Whitney signed long-term, the Penguins can focus on getting Evgeni Malkin Marc-Andre Fleury and Jordan Staal resigned. Fleury is in the last year of his entry-level deal, while Staal and Malkin each have two years left - and all three would make very tempting targets for offer sheets should they reach free agency.

Are the Penguins ready to make the next step? They looked lost in the playoffs a year ago, unable to find that next gear so necessary to be make the jump from a playoff team to a true Cup contender. No doubt they will learn from the experience but the very team that embarrassed them so thoroughly took far more than a single year to become a hardened playoff team.

As with the playoffs last year, the Penguins are not a team I would choose to face but nor are they a team I would be particularly worried by. Until they get more playoff experience under their belt - throughout their entire lineup, not merely from a few veterans - they look like a contender for the President’s Trophy but not the Stanley Cup.

Major Additions: Scott Gomez, Chris Drury

Major Subtractions: Kevin Weekes, Karel Rachunek, Brad Isbister, Michael Nylander, Jed Ortmyer, Sandis Ozolinsh

Analysis

The Rangers were a busy team during the off-season, snagging two of the most highly sought after centers on opening day and then spending most of the remainder of their summer locking up returning pieces. Marcel Hossa, Sean Avery and most importantly Henrik Lundqvist all earned raises though all signed very short-term contracts.

Make no mistake about it - the Rangers goal is nothing short of a Stanley Cup this year. They have but two years left on Jaromir Jagr’s contract and there is no guarantee he will play in the NHL when that expires. We also know that Brendan Shanahan’s days in the NHL are also nearing their end. And here’s a fun fact: the top four defencemen on this team are all heading to unrestricted free agency at the end of this season. Of defencemen expected to play for the Big Apple this year, only Thomas Pock and Marc Staal are signed past next summer.

With all of that in mind, what on earth was Glen Sather thinking giving such lengthy contracts to Gomez and Drury? Are they really the replacements he wants when Shanahan and Jagr decide to retire?

Gomez’s best season came in 2005-06 when he managed 84 points in 82 games - very impressive and certainly first line material, if not superstar numbers. But beyond 05-06 he’s managed to hit 70 points only twice in his NHL career, with the first time coming all the way back in 1999-2000. He’s coming off a very pedestrian season in which he managed only 13 goals and 60 points. Now that’s not bad, and it is worth noting that he’s still a very young player. But how on earth did a 60 point season translate into 7 year, $7.3 million per season contract?

Drury is a more controversial addition, but one I will also attempt to address. Let me start by saying I have great respect for Chris Drury and I would select him on my team anytime, anyplace. With that being said, however, Drury has never broken the 70 point plateau in his NHL career. You cannot discount his heart or leadership, but how did Drury manage to turn a pair of 30+ goals, 65+ points seasons into a five year, $7+ million per season contract?

I believe that Sather fell into the trap of overpaying for these two because of the general lack of truly elite talent in the summer’s pool of UFA forwards. These two were undeniably two of the top three forwards available (Ryan Smyth being the third), but not one player available this summer is in the same mold as a Joe Thornton, Jarome Iginla, Vincent Lecavalier or Danny Heatley. But they were still paid as such!

I blogged previously about the uncertainty of the salary cap (the current CBA could expire as early as the summer preceding the 2009 season. This could be a very large problem for the Rangers, as they now have over $12 million is payroll locked up in these two players for at least the next five years. During that time, they will face re-signing Lundqvist, Marc Staal, Petr Prucha and likely even newer prospects like Alexei Cherepanov as they hit unrestricted free agency. The Rangers here are a perfect example of why I am against these long term (greater than 3-4 years) contracts. There is too much change over the course of half a decade to plan around any but a generational talent (i.e. the Penguins would be smart to sign Crosby to a 10 year extension, but that’s about it).

As far as this season goes, the Rangers have to be considered a Stanley Cup favourite, so long as Lundqvist remains healthy and one of Gomez or Drury can find some chemistry on the top line. The departure of Kevin Weekes, who played in only 14 games last season, could very well prove the undoing of this team, which now lacks an experienced goaltender behind sensational King Henrik. Should he become injured, don’t be surprised if the Rangers make a move to pick up a veteran goaltender from a team like Los Angeles or Phoenix (both currently loaded with experienced if not incredible tenders). Of course, Lundqvist has not proved injury prone so far in his young NHL career, so Ranger fans don’t need to start panicking just yet.

Major Additions: Josef Vasicek, Andy Sutton, Joey MacDonald, Mike Comrie, Bill Guerin, Ruslan Fedotenko, Jonathan Sim

Major Subtractions: Aaron Asham, Sean Hill, Ryan Smyth, Richard Zednik, Tom Poti, Viktor Kozlov, Jason Blake, Alexei Yashin

Analysis

Is it fair to judge a General Manager’s success purely after the final results are in? Garth Snow sure hopes not. Widely praised for prying Ryan Smyth away for a few middling prospects at the trade deadline last year (a move that surely contributed to his team squeaking into the post-season), Snow must now be looked at as the GM who parted ways with prospects to get a team loaded with impending UFA’s a few extra games, then couldn’t keep that core together.

The Islanders lost big in the early days of free agency and could only fine mid-to-low tier replacements. While players like Guerin and Comrie are consistent performers, they’re not consistent first line performers. Nor do they come without question marks - Comrie over his work ethic and Guerin over his age.

The departure of Yashin, while a long-term blessing, will hurt in the short term (and the lengthy cap hit of his buyout will haunt the team for years and years).

The departures of Poti, Zednik and Kozlov are more obviously and inarguably bad news for Islander fans. Not one of those three were adequately replaced, and suitable replacements from within are unlikely to say the least. The acquisition of Marc-Andre Bergeron was a very pleasent surprise that will at least soften the blow, however.

The Islanders will likely miss the playoffs this season. They’ve lost too much ground and the teams around them have improved too much for anyone to bank on otherwise. While Ted Nolan has done an admirable job with the pieces he’s been given, it’s unreasonable to expect him to work miracles - and that’s just what would be needed for this team to make the playoffs.

Major Additions: Daniel Briere, Scott Hartnell, Kimmo Timmonen, Joffrey Lupul, Jason Smith

Major Subtractions: Todd Fedoruk, Mike York, Geoff Sanderson, Joni Pitkanen

Analysis

Wow! Talk about big changes over the off-season. Will it mean big changes in the standings?

I’m not quite convinced just yet. While I greatly respect many of the changes the Flyers made, such a large influx of players often results in an adjustment period that can yield… disappointing results in the short term.

Are the Flyers a better team than they were a few months ago? Of course! But the improvements on paper won’t necessarily result in immediate improvements on the ice. Case in point: Daniel Briere. He bounced around the league for years before becoming an offensive powerhouse in Buffalo. Obviously the changed rules helped a small, fast player like him, but what about the premiere offensive talents he got to play with. Can Briere be reasonably expected to repeat his recent success without the likes of Johan Hecht, Maxim Afinogenov and Chris Drury in supporting roles?

The one area the Flyers can be expected to improve immediately and drastically is in goal. Martin Biron is an instant upgrade and has really deserved a better shot at an undisputed #1 position than he ever received in Buffalo. That change alone should rocket the Flyers at least into playoff contention.

Unless the new additions gel almost immediately, the Flyers will struggle to make the playoffs once again. They missed the playoffs a year ago by a whopping 32 points and few teams above them got substantially worse. But they certainly won’t be the pushover they were last season, and substantial improvement in their young players could easily catapult them from bubble team to challenging for the division title (though I wouldn’t count on it).