NHL analysis

Key players for Dallas: Mike Modano, Marty Turco, Brenden Morrow

Key players for Vancouver: Roberto Luongo, Markus Naslund, Kevin Bieksa

Analysis: Well, it’s the playoffs, otherwise known as that time of year when Turco takes his perennial nose-dive.  Just to make sure there’s enough pressure on the $5.7 million goaltender, across the rink from him will be the potential Hart and Vezina trophy winner.

Dallas has done pretty well this year with an oft-decimated roster, but they don’t have to mustard to compete with the Canucks.  Vancouver has been absolutely stunning once they got their act together around December, and Luongo looks absolutely driven.  He knows he has plenty to prove and he looks focused and ready.  I wouldn’t want to bet against him.  If he gets the help he needs - Naslund, are you listening? - Vancouver will be almost unbeatable.

This won’t be an exciting series to watch but it could be an important one.  If Turco surprises us all and outplays Luongo, Dallas could become the dark horse team to watch.  If the series goes as expected, Luongo will probably become the key focus of the Western Conference playoff race.

Prediction: Vancouver in five

Key players for Minnesota: Marian Gaborik, Pavol Demitra, Niklas Backstrom

Key players for Anaheim: Scott Niedermayer, Chris Pronger, Teemu Selanne

Analysis: This will be one hell of a matchup.  Minnesota plays boring hockey spiced up with a few explosive players.  Anaheim is a powerhouse, with two strong goaltenders and the best 1-2 punch on the blueline the NHL has to offer.  The Wild are going to be scrappy, hard-working, unwilling to give an inch.  The Ducks need one thing: they need their best players to be the best players on the ice.

There are no surprises to be had here.  Sure, second tier guys like Ryan Getzlaf will have to step up but this team belongs to Giguerre, Pronger, Niedermayer and Selanne.  If those four start falling to injury or don’t outplay their counterparts opposite the ice, Minnesota will triumph.  The good news is all four are proven performers.  There are no soft players or known playoff chokers in this lineup.

The lack of depth behind Pronger and Niedermayer will likely be exploited, especially in Minnesota where the Wild have the last change.  Will it be enough?

Prediction: Anaheim in six

Key players for Calgary: Jarome Iginla, Miikka Kiprusoff, Kristian Huselius

Key players for Detroit: Dominik Hasek, Pavel Datsyuk, Todd Bertuzzi

Analysis: It all comes down to Hasek.  Is there a single Red Wings fan - anywhere - comfortable with that situation?

The Wings won this year by holding their opponents to an average of under 25 per game.  Can they do that in the playoffs?  If not, can Hasek keep his antics under wraps enough to stop that much rubber?

In the end, the Wings have the same problems they’ve had year after year: they’re not built for the playoffs and their opponents most certainly are.  Before the next few weeks are done, there are going to be major regrets over Datsyuk’s contract.

Of course, Detroit won’t go down easily.  But the longer this series goes, the more the balance will tip in Calgary’s favour.

Prediction: Calgary in six

Key players for Pittsburgh: Sidney Crosby, Marc-Andre Fleury, Gary Roberts

Key players for Ottawa: Dany Heatley, Ray Emery, Wade Redden
Analysis: As a Leafs fan, one of my few remaining hopes for this season remains watching Roberts beat up the Ottawa Senators.  It’s a particularly juicy story given that Muckler has already been criticized for not acquiring Roberts at the deadline.  And make no mistake - Roberts will be a major piece of this story.

The series, I believe, will come down to goaltending.  Fleury is improving almost daily, but I do not believe he is ready for this.  Emery, on the other hand, has playoff experience and is playing to prove he deserves the starter’s role.  If he wants to play next season (not to mention receive a big pay raise this summer) he has to continue to outplay Martin Gerber (not too tough apparently).

By winning home ice advantage I think the Senators have picked up the slim advantage needed to win this series.  While the Penguins are more than capable of upsetting the Sens, and while I feel the Penguins (unlike the Sens) explicitly and effectively identified and acquired missing pieces at the trade deadline, I don’t think there’s the same level of urgency in Pittsburgh as there is in Ottawa.  The Penguins have years to win with the core they’ve built, and most of that core has zero playoff experience.

Prediction: Ottawa in seven games

Key players for NY Rangers: Henrik Lundqvist, Jaromir Jagr, Sean Avery

Key players for Atlanta: Keith Tkachuk, Marian Hossa, Kari Lehtonen

Analysis: How on earth are the Thrashers the third seed?  Ranked bottom 10 in both power play and penalty killing, only a single goal more for than against… even playing in a weak division, the Thrashers are lucky to be in the playoffs.  This will be a first round upset.

Lundqvist was the key down the stretch and will continue to be so.  He is the real deal.  I was skeptical at the begining of the year (I’m skeptical of all second year goaltenders) but he’s made me a believer.  I don’t think the Rangers have the depth up front or on the blueline for a long run but I would be very surprised if they didn’t make it out of the first round.

But there is some worry.  Johan Hedberg is a more viable Plan B than Kevin Weekes should injuries occur.  Tkachuk and Alexei Zhitnik, though expensive, have proved very valuable since the trade deadline.  The Rangers are very top heavy, though their addition of Sean Avery as added more to the team than I expected.

Prediction: Rangers in six

Key players for Tampa Bay: Johan Holmqvist, Vincent Lecavalier, Brad Richards, Martin St. Louis

Key players for New Jersey: Martin Brodeur, Brian Rafalski, Patrik Elias

Analysis: Martin Brodeur will match up more than nicely against the big Tampa forwards, and while New Jersey lacks depth, they make Tampa look like a puddle.

Tampa will need to vastly improve its play on the road or this series will be all but over before they even set foot in their home rink.  More than anything, they need Richards to step up his play.  As good as the tandem of Lecavalier and St. Louis are, Richards is the one making $7.8 million and needs to return to the play that saw him crowned playoff MVP a few years ago.

The poor management of Tampa Bay’s goaltenders will prove the final blow in the coffin.  How can anyone in Tampa Bay show any confidence in Holmqvist or Marc Denis?

Prediction: New Jersey in four

Key players for NY Islanders: Ryan Smyth, Alexei Yashin, Rick DiPietro

Key players for Buffalo: Thomas Vanek, Ryan Miller, Chris Drury

Analysis: Considered the most lopsided matchup by almost all the experts, I can’t find that I disagree. The Sabres outscore their opponents by almost a full goal per game, while the Islanders barely managed to score more goals than they allowed over the season. The Islanders also barely squeaked into the playoffs despite playing in a much easier division than the Sabres.

There are a few things to watch for on the Islanders side, however. First, the Sabres have very ordinary special teams this year. While referees typically swallow their whistles in the post season, the power play and penalty kill could be Buffalo’s Achilles’ Heel. The Islanders can’t hope to keep up with the Sabres 5 on 5, so they will have to absolutely dominate special teams play to have a chance.

The other factor to keep a watch for is the return of Rick DiPietro. Should he return then the Islanders could steal a few games. While “Dubie” has played very well of late, it would be quite a stretch to count on him shutting down the powerful Sabres’ offence for long.

The longer this series goes, the more the Islanders will surprise everyone. Brendan Witt and Sean Hill will lead the charge in wearing down the Sabres; look for small scrums, shoving and a few hacks after every single whistle. The Sabres cannot afford to get caught up in a long, physical series against the Islanders if they have hopes of a long run.

Prediction: Sabres in five games

From John Kreiser’s excellent By the Numbers column today:

24 – Tamps Bay’s rank in goals allowed, the poorest of the 16 playoff teams — the other 15 were ranked 1-15 in goals allowed.

If that doesn’t prove you need to build your team from the goal crease out, I’m not sure what does.