Eastern Matchup: (4) Ottawa Senators vs. (5) Pittsburgh Penguins
| Pittsburgh Penguins | Ottawa Senators | |
| Power Home | 0.521 | 0.540 |
| Power Away | 0.473 | 0.628 |
| Power Total | 0.497 | 0.584 |
| Goals For | 277 | 288 |
| Goals Against | 246 | 222 |
| Diff Per Game | 0.378 | 0.805 |
| PowerPlay | 20.3% (5th) | 17.9% (14th) |
| PenaltyKill | 82.1% (17th) | 84.5% (9th) |
| PP+PK | 102.40% | 102.40% |
Key players for Pittsburgh: Sidney Crosby, Marc-Andre Fleury, Gary Roberts
Key players for Ottawa: Dany Heatley, Ray Emery, Wade Redden
Analysis: As a Leafs fan, one of my few remaining hopes for this season remains watching Roberts beat up the Ottawa Senators. It’s a particularly juicy story given that Muckler has already been criticized for not acquiring Roberts at the deadline. And make no mistake - Roberts will be a major piece of this story.
The series, I believe, will come down to goaltending. Fleury is improving almost daily, but I do not believe he is ready for this. Emery, on the other hand, has playoff experience and is playing to prove he deserves the starter’s role. If he wants to play next season (not to mention receive a big pay raise this summer) he has to continue to outplay Martin Gerber (not too tough apparently).
By winning home ice advantage I think the Senators have picked up the slim advantage needed to win this series. While the Penguins are more than capable of upsetting the Sens, and while I feel the Penguins (unlike the Sens) explicitly and effectively identified and acquired missing pieces at the trade deadline, I don’t think there’s the same level of urgency in Pittsburgh as there is in Ottawa. The Penguins have years to win with the core they’ve built, and most of that core has zero playoff experience.
Prediction: Ottawa in seven games