NHL analysis

Here are things I’ve noticed about each of the remaining 8 teams:

Buffalo Sabres: Strong, fast, deep, talented - but not very tough.  The Sabres don’t have a particularly gritty team, and the insertion of Tim Connolly onto the fourth line (while obviously the right decision) has only added to that.  I just can’t see the Sabres lasting against a team like San Jose or Anaheim if they were to make the finals.  That being said, I wouldn’t want to be the team to face them or tell them that.

New York Rangers: Just not good enough to beat the Sabre (not that anyone is surprised).  While Henrik Lundqvist has been excellent, and Jaromir Jagr looks like he’s out to prove something, the defence and the second, third and fourth lines simply lack the skill to skate with their opponents.  This is not to say that the Rangers can’t win.  But they’ll have to be very, very patient if they wish to do so.

New Jersey Devils: The Devils are a team that just wins.  Of course it starts with Brodeur, but it continues with everyone from Scott Gomez (10 assists so far in the playoffs) on down.  That being said, they needed overtime to salvage a slit of their opening two home games against the Senators.  As long as Ray Emery can continue to remain within spitting distance of Brodeur’s play, the Devils will be hard pressed to lengthen this series, let alone win it.

Ottawa Senators: So far, the Sens look determined to break their reputation as playoff chokers.  For how long?  They may still fall apart, but it won’t be happening anytime soon.  They still could have used Gary Roberts, but maybe, just maybe, they’ll make do without him.  If I didn’t know any better I’d swear Mike Comrie was playing for a new contract…

Detroit Red Wings: Very nearly went down 2-0 heading to San Jose.  Detroit may just have their hands full with a bigger, faster, strong Sharks team.  The good news is Pavel Datsyuk is playing up to his new contract, Hasek remains one of the best, and the Wings got past the first round.

San Jose Sharks: My current pick for “team to beat” remaining in the playoffs.  The Sharks forwards are so big, so tough, so mean, and so all around goooood it’s almost scary.  Craig Rivet was worth the first round pick the Sharks gave up after all.  And maybe the Sharks should be moving Toskala instead of Nabokov.

Anaheim Ducks: The third and fourth liners are hardly playing.  That’s both the best and worst thing the Ducks could hope for here.  The Ducks have some of the best players in the league on their top two lines and defence pairs, but the rest of their line up is somewhat weaker than that of their opponents.  In long games and long series’, that is potentially worrisome.  Do they have the stamina if they’re only playing half their roster?

Vancouver Canucks: Managed to split the games in Anaheim (which I didn’t think they would) but then dropped game three in Vancouver.  They certainly can’t afford to drop game four, and I’m not sure winning it would be enough, either.  However, I have to give the team credit - how different would the situation be if they hadn’t suffered the injuries to their blueline?

Key players for Vancouver: Sedin twins, Roberto Luongo, Trevor Linden

Key players for Anaheim: Chris Pronger, Teemu Selanne, Scott Niedermayer

Analysis: Vancouver got the easiest draw in the first round and barely outscored the Stars. Luongo did everything he was expected to do, Linden did far more than that, and then everything petered out.

With all due respect to Trevor Linden, he cannot be your highest scoring player in the playoffs. Marcus Naslund and the Sedin twins need to get moving and moving fast, because the Ducks will be flying from the first puck drop. And they’re fast, and they’re big and they’re mean. If they can do so without taking too many penalties, the Canucks will be lucky to see more than 2 home dates.

I’m pulling for the Canucks because I have to hope for the Cup to come back to Canada (and Ottawa doesn’t count ;)) but I wouldn’t put any money on them.

Prediction: Ducks in 5

Key players for San Jose: Evgeny Nabokov, Joe Thornton, Jonathan Cheechoo

Key players for Detroit: Dominik Hasek, Todd Bertuzzi, Nicklas Lidstrom

Analysis: I watched most of the San Jose - Nashville series, and I can hardly believe how good the Sharks are.  Their forwards are so big, so strong, so relentless, they just wear down your defencemen until there’s nothing left.  Nashville wasn’t able to get anything going and by the time they rolled into games three and four their blueliners were looking over their shoulders after every play.  Now, they didn’t have to deal with a Norris winner like Lidstrom but Nashville did have a solid, deep blueline.

Detroit’s forwards will have to carry the play because San Jose’s weakest point is most definitely its blueline.  Nabokov is playing with passion and will be tough to beat.  If the Sharks get their power play going, this series could be over almost before it starts.

The good news for Detroit fans is that their team has gotten past the first series hump and Pavel Datsyuk scored more in the first 6 games of the playoffs than in about the previous 25 games.  Look to Detroit to stretch out the series, but the longer it goes, the more the tide will swing in San Jose’s favour.  The Sharks are now my current favourite for the Stanley Cup.

Prediction: San Jose in 6

Key players for Ottawa: Ray Emery, Mike Comrie, Dany Heatley

Key players for New Jersey: Martin Brodeur, Brian Rafalski, Patrik Elias

Analysis: After watching New Jersey have so much trouble with the Tampa Bay Lightning, I have little confidence in them defeating the Senators, who look like a determined and focused team against the Pittsburgh Penguins. Comrie has played very well, enough to add a significant second threat while keeping the big line of Heatley, Spezza and Alfredsson together. Most importantly of all, the Senators have confidence in their goaltender and have plenty to prove. The Devils to me seem uninterested. That had better change if they hope to last against the Sens.

You can never count out Brodeur, but he’ll have virtually no margin for error in this matchup. The Senators are much stronger at every single position than the Lightning were, and the Devils had trouble with them. The Devils are an excellent team at pouncing on turnovers, but so are the Senators, and their guns are bigger. I’d expect a fairly quick out for the Devils.

Prediction: Senators in 5

Key players for Buffalo: Ryan Miller, Tim Connolly, Brian Campbell

Key players for New York: Henrik Lundqvist, Sean Avery, Marek Malik

Analysis: The Sabres at first glance seem the obvious favourites, but the Rangers have been one of the better teams since the All-Star break and should cause troubles for Buffalo.  Sean Avery is proving to be the best rental player acquired at the deadline so far.  Lundqvist continues to be among the league’s elite.

The Rangers big weak point is on the blueline.  They have several big, lumbering defencemen, led by Marek Malik, who are likely to be exposed by the fast, skilled, deep forwards of the Sabres.  On the flip side, I’m not convinced the Sabres blueline can handle the likes of Jagr, Nylander and Straka if the series goes longer than a few games.  That will put increased pressure on Ryan Miller, though he should be up to the task.

I have to lean in favour of of the Sabres here, and I doubt it would even be close.  Lundqvist will likely steal a game or two for the Rangers, but unless they absolutely dominate the Sabres on special teams - which is possible if unlikely - the Rangers will be packing their bags pretty darned quick.

Prediction: Sabres in 6

The first round is officially over with tonight’s game.  Let’s see how my predictions did:

Buffalo vs. NY Islanders

My prediction: Buffalo in 5

Result: Buffalo in 5

Exactly as expected.  Rick DiPietro came back earlier than I expected and helped draw out the series, but not much.  Tim Conolly makes Buffalo even deeper, something I would have sworn was not possible.

New Jersey vs. Tampa Bay

My prediction: New Jersey in 4

Result: New Jersey in 6

Tampa gave the Devils more trouble than they should have, probably because New Jersey failed to put pressure and expose the weak Tampa blueline.  Oh, and Holmqvist played great, which came out of nowhere.  Still, the end result shouldn’t surprise anyone.

Atlanta vs. NY Rangers

My prediction: Rangers in 6

Result: Rangers in 4

Who could have predicted Hartley would play musical chairs with his goatenders, or that Hossa and Kovalchuk would disappear so completely?  With the way Lundqvist played in the second half of the season, I was expecting the Rangers to have little trouble here, but the sweep certainly surprised me.

Ottawa vs. Pittsburgh

My prediction: Ottawa in 7

Result: Ottawa in 5

The youngsters had more trouble than expected getting their play up to another level, and the Senators are better than I thought they were.  If Mike Comrie keeps up his play, he adds another level of depth to this team that so far seems determined to end their tradition of playoff failure.

Detroit vs. Calgary

My prediction: Calgary in 7

Result: Detroit in 6

I suppose I should have realized just how bad Calgary was on the road.  I’m still not convinced about Detroit riding Hasek all the way but I do think I’ll have to take a closer look at Detroit heading into round 2.

Anaheim vs. Minesota

My Prediction: Anaheim in 6

Result: Anaheim in 5

Minnesota just isn’t deep enough to take on the Ducks.  I figured they would have stolen a second game, but Anaheim just rolled over them.  I didn’t get to see as much of this series as I would have liked.

Vancouver vs. Dallas

My prediction: Vancouver in 5

Result: Vancouver in 7

Marty Turco proved me wrong and matched Roberto Luongo save for save, but it still wasn’t enough.  In some ways that’s almost worse than knowing Turco just doesn’t have it in the second season.  However, I think Dallas fans can breathe a sigh of relief over their starting netminder.  Unfortunately, he won’t get a second chance for another year.

Nashville vs. San Jose

My Prediction: Nashville in 7

Result: San Jose in 5

The series that surprised me the most, both in terms of result and length.  Nashville never came together as a group, and San Jose’s big, strong forwards punished their opponents relentlessly.  Nabokov was absolutely stunning.

Well, the first series is over, the others well on their way.  Here are some thoughts on the playoffs so far:

Biggest positive surprise (team): San Jose Sharks

I wouldn’t have been so surprised had San Jose won the series, but I am very surprised they’ve manhandled the Predators the way they have.  I’m particularly surprised that they’ve done so without Joe Thornton, Patrick Marleau, Jonathan Cheechoo or their powerplay doing the work.  San Jose is just so big and so strong up front, they’ve worn down the Preds at every opportunity.  These guys are built for the playoffs.  Evgeny Nabokov is proving to be worth his weight in gold, too.

Biggest positive surprise (player): Zach Parise

Wow.  Even when the rest of his team isn’t doing so well, this sophomore is tearing it up in the playoffs.  That’s a good thing, because the big line has been surprisingly dormant and Martin Brodeur has yet to steal a game for the Devils.

Biggest negative surprise (team): New Jersey Devils

Did the Devils miss the memo on Johan Holmqvist and the Tampa Bay Lightning?  Having managed to salvage a split after losing two of the first three games, the Devils have consistently failed to put pressure on the thin Tampa blueline and are making Holmqvist look like an all-star.

Biggest negative surprise (player): Ilya Kovalchuk, Marian Hossa, Keith Tkachuk

I’m giving young Kari Lehtonen a full break because of how poorly the goaltending was managed by the Thrashers in this series.  The big three needed to perform for Atlanta because the rest of their lineup was iffy at best.  They didn’t, and the Thrashers were swept.  Anyone surprised?

Key players for San Jose: Patrick Marleau, Evgeny Nabokov, Joe Thornton

Key players for Nashville: Kimmo Timonen, Tomas Vokoun, Paul Kariya

Analysis: Best matchup in the first round.  This series will be epic.

I listed each team’s expected starting goaltender and not their very capable backups because I feel that if either of those two falters, it will be too late for his team to recover.  A fast start will be very important to this series because both are so good, so well put together.  A couple points to consider:

Joe Thornton put together a second straight 90 assist season but his career playoff stats are not flattering: 8 goals, 19 assists for 27 points in 46 games.  Not good enough.

2nd place power play (San Jose) against 3rd ranked penalty kill.

Virtually identical goal differentials.

This will be a close one.  And a fun one to watch.

Prediction: Nashville in seven