NHL analysis

For all those (myself very much included) who complain about the scheduling format of the NHL, there are times when it is obvious the guys in charge got at least some parts of it sooooo right.

As of right this instant, it’s looking like the playoff race in the East is down to two teams - Toronto and Montreal - fighting for the 8th spot.  The Hurricanes and Islanders are all but finished while the Rangers and Lightning have all but clinched their spots.  Carolina and Long Island sit 4 points out of 8th with 4 games each left to play, and they would have to jump over both Toronto and Montreal to get in.

Once you’re convinced that it’s more or less a two horse race, take a peak at the schedule.  Look ahead about one week, to April the 7th.  What’s that?  Montreal in Toronto?  Damn straight!

I’m already looking forward to next Saturday night.

Canada.com:

Minnesota is the one team that scares you. They’ve got [Marian] Gaborik, who’s a game-breaker, they’ve played some of the best hockey in the league lately and they’re better than they’ve ever been, even the year they went three rounds [’03 again].

He makes some very good points throughout the article. Anaheim looks frightening but they really lack depth. Imagine Anaheim without Scott Niedermayer, Chris Pronger or Teemu Selanne. Of course, any team that loses a guy of that caliber would suffer, but the Ducks are probably the most top-heavy team in the league. Their young players have been excellent but do you want to rely on them in the playoffs?

I still like Nashville, though they haven’t adjusted to Peter Forsberg’s arrival as quickly as I would have liked. They remind me of Carolina last season - three very deep scoring lines, big up the middle, with a blueline stuffed with some underrated and very solid guys. I also like them because they have a number of players - Paul Kariya and Steve Sullivan come to mind - for whom this year might be their best chance. They don’t want to waste that. They’ll be hungry.

Side question: if you’re Dallas, how worried are you about Marty Turco? His playoff performance has been terrible so far and he’s set to eat up a hefty $5.7 million for another three years. How many more chances can you afford to give him if he can’t break out of his playoff funk?

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On hockey related news: the Hurricanes just might be done.  Back to back losses to the Leafs and Flyers, combined with a collapse in goal (recently injured Cam Ward was yanked in two straight games then benched for tonight’s loss to the worst team in the NHL).  Odds are they intended him to sit this game anyways, but now it appears - true or not - that the team has lost confidence in Ward.  Turning to John Grahame remains a dubious choice, at best.

Given the tightness of the race, this is just the sort of collapse no team can survive.  They’ve still got time to bounce back, but not much time.

Just how important is getting into the 3 vs. 6 seed matchup in the East?

Consider the standings based on points.  The top 4 teams (Buffalo, New Jersey, Pittsburgh and Ottawa) are separated by a mere 5 points.  Then there is a 10 point drop to the Atlanta Thrashers, who are seeded third because they are leading their division.  From Atlanta down to the 11th place New York Islanders is a mere 4 points.

What does this mean?  Well, first off, if either Tampa Bay or Carolina can catch the Thrashers, they’d immediately guarantee themselves a spot against a fellow bubble team.  The alternative is to potentially face Buffalo or New Jersey in the first round.

It also means that teams like Toronto, Montreal and the New York Rangers shouldn’t be just worried about making the playoffs.  The difference between facing the best of Atlanta, Tampa and Carolina in the first round and facing Buffalo or New Jersey is simply huge.

With five or six games left to play, it’s time for the bubble teams to aim high.  No, they can’t catch Ottawa or Pittsburgh for home ice advantage, but just slipping in is a recipe for disaster this year.