NHL analysis

Power Rankings have been updated for February 28, 2007.

The movement has definitely died down on the rankings, due to the fact that my rankings take into account the entire season without emphasizing recent games.  I’m going to be taking a long look at the rankings in the off-season and will likely change how I calculate the rankings for next year, probably giving the most recent 5 or 10 games more importance to better illustrate how a team performs as the season progresses.

I still think my Power Rankings are a pretty solid indicator team strength, but only if you keep in mind that I emphasize shots taken and allowed.  Teams can win when they’re regularly outshot and can lose when they outshoot their opponents.  As with any stats, take them with a grain of salt.

Here are tonight’s picks:

Earlier I blogged about the winners and losers of today’s trade deadline. After including the Edmonton Oilers in the losing column, I’ve done plenty of thinking about the Ryan Smyth trade. While I’ll let the reader draw final conclusions at his or her own discretion, I decided I at least owe it to offer the other side of the argument.

Let’s assume that it would have taken about $5.5 million annually to keep Smyth in Edmonton. That seems to be the number thrown about these days. Now, not to diminish the value of Smyth’s attitude, his heart and soul, his intangibles, and of course his hairdo, but is $5.5 million a good number to throw at a player with a career high 70 points back in 2000-01?

I took a look at other players making at least $5 million this year as a fair comparison. That list is 44 players long. 27 forwards, 10 defencemen, 7 goalies. (if we make the list $5.5 million or higher we cut the list down by 4 goalies, 9 forwards and 2 defencemen). Though there are certainly some stinkers on the list, by and large this is the cream of the crop of the NHL; the best of the best of the best.

I’ll leave it to the reader to decide where on this list Smyth aught to reside. His current pace (31 G, 22 A, 53 PTS in 53 GP) plus his grit, determination and leadership will certainly earn him a fat raise. Did Kevin Lowe ultimately make the right decision getting what he could for the face of his franchise? Who will he spend that cap space on next year if not Captain Canada?

You be the judge. Here is the list of 26 forwards, plus Smyth, making $5 million or more this season and their current production (NB: “making” in this article refers to cap hit, not actual salary):

Initial thoughts on the big winners and losers of today’s trade deadline:

Winners

Detroit Red Wings

Ken Holland is a very underrated GM.  The conditional draft pick that is the centre of the deal that brings Todd Bertuzzi back to the western conference could be as high as a first rounder, but for that to happen Bertuzzi will have to stay healthy, perform well AND the Wings will have to go deep in the playoffs.  That’s about as safe an acquisition as you can make for a guy with the potential to make waves as Bertuzzi.

Pittsburgh Penguins

They got Gary Roberts, they got George Laraque.  I now feel they have enough leadership and experience to make noise in the playoffs.  I do not feel they will go far in the second season, because I’m not convinced Marc Andre Fleury is ready.  However, they will be a bad, bad opponent to face and even if they’re knocked out, the experience they earn this year will make them even more deadly next time around.  Oh, and Nolan Schaeffer is an absolute steal for a 7th round pick.

San Jose

I thought Nashville’s offence was scary, with the big three centremen (Forsberg, Arnott, Legwand).  Look at the top two lines in San Jose and you’ll see Bill Guerin join Joe Thornton, Jonathan Cheechoo, Patrick Marleau and more.  Add to that the veteran addition of Craig Rivet to add some stability on the blueline and one of the best goaltending tandems in the league and you have a very frightening team.

Losers

Edmonton

I understand Kevin Lowe had a tough decision to make, but shame on him for letting Ryan Smyth walk away.  Ales Hemsky, Dwayne Roloson and Shawn Horcoff all got rewarded after last season - why not Smyth?  And if you did need to trade him, well, they didn’t get enough.  If you’re going to throw in the towel, give Anaheim a call to see what they were willing to part with.  Edmonton fans will be and should be pissed at what has left this team in less than a year.

Philadelphia Flyers

Martin Biron?  Am I missing something?  I understand the Flyers made this move with the intention of signing Biron long-term, but was a second round pick not too high a price for a few months monopoly on signing him?  Particularly considering that pick will almost certainly be one of the top three picks of the second round.

Montreal Canadiens

Michael Leighton is not the answer for the rest of the regular season.  The Canadiens neither shored up their chances of making the playoffs nor got anything for their impending UFA’s.

HockeyLeaks is reporting that Gary Roberts for Noah Welch is finally a done deal, with Roberts waiving his no-trade clause early this morning.

I was dreading my Leafs re-acquiring Roberts (he’ll go down as one of my all-time favourite Leafs but he’s not the same player he was 5 years ago) but I have to admit I really like this deal for the Penguins.  Roberts adds about the best playoff attitude you can have and will do whatever it takes to win.

He might just be the piece that convinces me they have enough experience and leadership to make some playoff noise.

As you’ve likely already seen, the trickle of trades is starting to thicken.  Richard Zednik, Craig Rivet, Bryan Smolinski have all moved within the past day, while HockeyLeaks.com is reporting that Brent Sopel has been traded to the Vancouver Canucks while the Red Wings, Blackhawks and Flyers have cemented a three-way deal that sees Kyle Calder headed to Detroit, Jason Williams to Chicago and Lasse Kukkonen and a draft pick to Philly.

As well, nine players are currently sitting on waivers and at least a few of them will likely be picked up.

The asking price for the top tier available players seems a bit extreme (three draft picks plus a roster player for Keith Tkachuk?), which helps to explain the prevalence of second tier moves today.  I expect that will continue right up to the deadline tomorrow, though you’ve got to think that there are a few GM’s who will bite the bullet and make a serious pitch for a Bill Guerin, Todd Bertuzzi or even a Joe Sakic.

Here are tonight’s picks: