NHL analysis

The NHL is back!  Now, I watched about half of the All-Star game, but I think I’ve decided I fall on the cancel-it side of the debate.  It’s just terrible; it’s not hockey at all.  It just turns into a pissing match over who did or didn’t get included in the game.

Here are tonight’s picks:

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Washington (.309)    Carolina (.637)
Buffalo (.600)        Columbus (.359)
NY Islanders (.351)    Atlanta (.437)
Detroit (.629)          St. Louis (.285)
Calgary (.285)            Minnesota (.597)
New Jersey (.492)      Tampa Bay (.554)
Nashville (.479)       Chicago (.426)
Pittsburgh (.342)        Dallas (.563)
Phoenix (.337)            Colorado (.541)
San Jose (.685)        Edmonton (.494)
Los Angeles (.286)      Vancouver (.454)

Lot of games on the schedule, and it’s worth noting how many teams are still in the hunt for the playoffs.  That brings a level of interest to virtually every game, which is what the NHL should be focusing on.  That being said, some games are obviously better than others.  I’d like to see the San Jose in Edmonton game, myself.

Power Rankings for January 23, 2007 are up.

Power Rankings are a combination of winning percentage, schedule difficulty, offensive and defensive statistics (shots and goals for and allowed per game) and opponent offensive and defensive stats. Each team is listed with its Power Rank and the change from its ranking last week. There is significant movement this week, in part because last week’s rankings did not include offensive and defensive statistics.

1. Detroit Red Wings (0.803, no change from last week)

Facing the expected challenge for top spot in the division from the Nashville Predators. Desperately hoping the injury to Henrik Zetterberg is not serious.

2. Anaheim Ducks (0.711, 0)

Struggling without Chris Pronger and JS Giguerre. Who wouldn’t? Hopefully their divisional rivals don’t forget that those injuries are temporary.

3. San Jose Sharks (0.674, 0)

The Kyle Calder trade hasn’t worked out but it hardly seems to matter. When does this team trade a goalie for some help on the blueline?

4. Buffalo Sabres (0.600, 0)

Struggling lately but this team never quits. For the fans of this franchise, I hope they manage to squeeze top value out of someone when they trade Martin Biron. If they can’t, don’t be shocked to see Chris Drury or Daniel Briere’s names show up in trade rumours.

5. Ottawa Senators (0.573, +2)

Rolling along as expected. Once again, this team’s real season doesn’t start until the 83^rd game.

6. New Jersey Devils (0.570, 0)

Is the blueline deep enough for a playoff run? Even Martin Brodeur needs help sometimes.

7. Dallas Stars (0.569, -2)

Injuries are starting to take their tole. Was Eric Lindros really a better way of spending money than Bill Guerin?

8. Vancouver Canucks (0.551, +3)

Hottest team in the NHL right now. If you’re a Canucks’ fan, just try not to think of an injury to Luongo.

9. Carolina Hurricanes (.542, 0)

I try not to lend too much weight to the inconsistency of a team with so many of its top defencemen out, but this is not the same team as last year. If Cam Ward falters, the Canes really don’t have a backup plan.

10. Tampa Bay Lightning (.533, -2)

With so much salary tied up in three players, the Lightning need those three to dominate. When they don’t, this team loses. Seems to work relatively well this regular season but can any of those three carry the team through the only 16 wins that really matter?

11. Nashville Predators (0.529, -1)

Best winning percentage in the league right now, but also one of the easiest schedules. This team is hungry and has perhaps the best goaltending in the league. Watch out.

12. Colorado Avalanche (0.503, +1)

The injury to John-Michael Liles hurts a blueline that wasn’t deep enough to start with.

13. Toronto Maple Leafs (0.501, -1)

Have little trouble with the Lightning but get smoked by the Penguins. Is that the Leafs’ season in a nutshell?

14. Calgary Flames (0.464, +3)

Starting to win on the road as well as at home. That’s good news.

15. Montreal Canadiens (0.456, +3)

Sheldon Souray is on pace to shatter the record for power-play goals by a defenceman. Enjoy your last year in Montreal, Sheldon.

16. Florida Panthers (0.454, -1)

Auld has struggled adjusting to a weaker team than he’s used to despite being given every opportunity. And Ed Belfour’s back can no longer handle the weight of an entire team.

17. New York Rangers (0.446, -3)

No consistency, and rumours of trouble in the locker room. Bad combination.

18. Atlanta Thrashers (0.441, 0)

As expected, the Thrashers lack a centerman capable of keeping up with their wingers. Have they called Jason Allison?

19. Minnesota Wild (0.428, 0)

Marian Gaborik has been on fire since his return. This is good – shows what the team can do – but also bad – shows what can happen if even one injury occurs.

20. Edmonton Oilers (0.417, +1)

Help will be coming before the trade deadline. What will it cost Kevin Lowe?

21. Boston Bruins (0.395, -1)

How long until Tuuka Raask is ready for the NHL?

22. Pittsburgh Penguins (0.394, +5)

I was surprised that Mark Recchi would choose to come back to Sidney’s team, but he really looks like he wants to play.

23. New York Islanders (0.378, -1)

When does the big sale start in Long Island?

24. Phoenix Coyotes (0.365, -1)

Finally on something of a role. Still one of the worst managed teams in the league.

25. Washington Capitals (0.364, -1)

The Caps are almost a 0.500 hockey club. Much more fun to watch than I would have guessed, even when Ovechkin’s not on the ice.

26. Chicago Blackhawks (0.362, 0)

Could Khabibulin be on his way back out of Chicago?

27. Los Angeles Kings (0.349, -2)

Even before the injury, the Dan Cloutier trade was a disaster. It’s now officially a catastrophe. Hopefully the Kings at least cemented some goodwill with Nonis.

28. St. Louis Blues (0.333, +1)

Where will Bill Guerin and Keith Tkachuk end up?

29. Columbus Blue Jackets (0.333, -1)

How long term will this team plan? Will we see veterans being dumped or are they confident Hitchcock can turn the ship around as early as next year?

30. Philadelphia Flyers (0.215, 0)

No surprises here, and nothing to say.

I’m back in town now and have updated the different stats. New Power Rankings will be going up tomorrow.

After tonight there will be no updates until after the weekend. I’m heading out of town and won’t be able to post updates. Enjoy the All-Star Weekend.

Here are tonight’s picks:

Away Home

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Pittsburgh (.352) Boston (.531)
NY Islanders (.356) Philadelphia (.128)
Washington (.285) Carolina (.660)
Montreal (.366) Atlanta (.443)
Vancouver (.653) Ottawa (.555)
Tampa Bay (.513) New Jersey (.648)
Toronto (.637) Florida (.626)
Columbus (.322) Nashville (.560)
Anaheim (.688) Edmonton (.473)
St. Louis (.332) Los Angeles (.429)
Phoenix (.344) San Jose (.658)

In case you haven’t checked out the Over/Underachievers list recently, here are a few highlights:

Detroit Red Wings (+33.0): Though I doubt the Wings can finish quite as high as the expected final points predicts, their strength here shows how weak their schedule is compared to many other teams.  Even with the resurgence of Chicago and, to a lesser extent, St. Louis and Columbus, the Red Wings are among the teams most benefited from the current schedule set up.

Chicago Blackhawks (+22.5): I’ve been watching the Hawks very closely because my stats have consistently expected more of them.

Ottawa Senators (-12.6): Among the best teams in the league over the past 10 games.  Can you imagine what would happen if Ray Emery got hurt again?

Atlanta Thrashers (-18.8): This will be, barring catastrophic injuries, the year Atlanta makes the playoffs, but they’ve still been playing over their heads this year.

Buffalo Sabres (-8.9): This team is good, but their division is too tough for them to have maintained their early pace.  Still easily the favourite from the East, though.

Here are tonight’s picks:

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Boston (.296)           Buffalo (.556)
Nasvhille (.502)         Detroit (.992)
Calgary (.269)           Dallas (.548)
Phoenix (.355)          Colorado (.490)

Nashville in Detroit should be one heck of a game.  The rest I have trouble getting excited over.

Power Rankings for January 16, 2007 are up.

Power Rankings are a combination of winning percentage, schedule difficulty, offensive and defensive statistics (shots and goals for and allowed per game) and opponent offensive and defensive stats. Each team is listed with its Power Rank and the change from its ranking last week. There is significant movement this week, in part because last week’s rankings did not include offensive and defensive statistics.

1. Detroit Red Wings (.795, +3): Best ratio of offensive to defensive stats by far. Dominic Hasek had another shutout. Now that Pavel Datsyuk and Henrik Zetterberg are rolling, this team will compete for yet another President’s Trophy.

2. Anaheim Ducks (.760, 0): The injuries to Chris Pronger and JS Giguere have hardly been noticed in the long run. Teemu Selanee is perhaps the best pure goal scorer in the league today.

3. San Jose Sharks (.667, -2): Joe Thornton leads the league in power play assists (32) and points (36). Boston got who in return for this guy?

4. Buffalo Sabres (.607, -1): Showing signs of struggling under the weight of injuries. Last year’s playoffs showed that this team, though very deep, is just as vulnerable to the injury bug as anyone else. They are not any deeper than they were a year ago, and may need to make a few moves before the deadline rolls around.

5. Dallas Stars (.560, +2): Rolling along despite a slew of injuries. Until I see success in the playoffs, I really have nothing to say about this team.

6. New Jersey Devils (.558, 0): I had high hopes for this team in last year’s playoffs, but their complete deflation against the eventual Cup champion Hurricanes showed that a complete lack of secondary scoring leaves even Martin Brodeur too much of a workload to get far in the playoffs.

7. Ottawa Senators (.544, +4): Jason who? The loss of Spezza and Mike Fischer seems to have provided the glue this team needed to come together.

8. Tampa Bay Lightning (.544, +14): Marc Denis has not provided the steady goaltending this team expected and needed. The Lightning have one of the best shots and goals for / against ratio in the league, yet they are struggling to maintain a playoff spot.

9. Carolina Hurricanes (.542, +1): Cam Ward has been better than I expected him through the first half, which has provided the Hurricanes the stability every team needs. What they do when their glut of injured defencemen get healthy will determine the future of this franchise not only this season, but for the next several years as well.

10. Nashville Predators (.534, -5): Here is a team that suffers from the inclusion of offensive and defensive stats. The Preds have the luxury of two of the best goaltenders in this year’s NHL, and so they win consistently despite regularly giving up more shots than they take.

11. Vancouver Canucks (.524, -2): Not enough offence? Giving up too many shots? Luongo still prefers the Canucks to his old team.

12. Toronto Maple Leafs (.499, +5): They tend to lose the nail biters while winning big. That helps them in the Power Rankings but won’t help them win important games.

13. Colorado Avalanche (.491, +5): Goaltending needs to be better.

14. NY Rangers (.470, +2): One of the best inconsistent teams in the league. Not a bad combination, but not a very good one, either.

15. Florida Panthers (.451, +11): Rumours are starting that Oli Jokinen wants out of town. If Jokinen and Bertuzzi depart over the summer, who will the Panthers have left to build around?

16. Montreal Canadiens (.448, -8): Great special teams but mostly, the Habs live and die by Christobel Huet. Someone needs to take the pressure off of Saku Koivu. Samsonov and Kovalev, we are looking in your direction.

17. Calgary Flames (.443, -2): Better than expected without captain Iginla. Is Kipper the single best bargain in the league at $3.33 million?

18. Atlanta Thrashers (.440, -6): This is a good team, but they are helped considerably by their weak division. Any playoff experience they can get this year will help them become a real contender for the future.

19. Minnesota Wild (.426, +1): Horrendous road record will doom this club, though they have a shot at making the playoffs if Marian Gaborik maintains his current pace.

20. Boston Bruins (.412, -7): Tim Thomas still isn’t the answer. Who’d they get for Joe Thornton?

21. Edmonton Oilers (.386, -2): Getting exactly what they expected from Roloson, more than expected from the blueline (though they’d undoubtedly like some help in that area) and not enough from all those forewards they spent so much time locking up last summer.

22. NY Islanders (.384, -1): Ted Nolan’s team has come back down to earth despite Rick DiPietro continuing to play pretty well.

23. Phoenix Coyotes (.376, +1): Steadily improving, but the playoffs are a long way ahead. What will be left of this franchise after this season?

24. Washington Capitals (.372, -10): Olaf Kolzig is good, but not good enough to get this team into the playoffs.

25. Los Angeles Kings (.371, +2): I hope Rob Blake is doing a good job teaching the kids, because he’ll be retired before this team is a contender again.

26. Chicago Blackhawks (.371, -1): This team is going to be frighteningly good in a few years. Will ownership do the same?

27. Pittsburgh Penguins (.368, -4): How patient will this franchise be with their young core? If the Pens can add a legitimate top pair defenceman, it could almost instantly turn this team into a legitimate playoff threat. But the price of such a blueliner would be very, very high.

28. Columbus Blue Jackets (.317, 0): This team can only get better, but it won’t happen fast enough to make a difference this year.

29. St. Louis Blues (.292, 0): Season’s over already. What will they get for Bill Guerin and Keith Tkachuk?

30. Philadelphia Flyers (.218, 0): No one wants the players the Flyers want to dump, and the Flyers don’t want to part with Pitkanen, Richards or Carter. Is Simon Gagne tradeable so soon after signing his big contract?

Here are tonight’s picks:

Away                            Home

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NY Islanders (.366)         Pittsburgh (.382)
Los Angeles (.300)          Atlanta (.440)
Columbus (.304)             Chicago (.437)
Vancouver (.631)         Montreal (.505)
Washington (.297)           Ottawa (.536)
NY Rangers (.499)           New Jersey (.628)
Toronto (.612)             Tampa Bay (.576)
Carolina (.443)                 Florida (.669)
Edmonton (.313)             Minnesota (.625)
St. Louis (.289)               Anaheim (.821)