NHL analysis

Last Picks for January:

New Power Rankings are up.

1. Detroit Red Wings (0.803, 0 change)
The Wings remain untouchable in my Power Rankings, due mostly to their ridiculously low shots allowed per game.  They certainly do their best to make things easy on Dominic Hasek.

2. Anaheim Ducks (0.710, 0)
The Ducks got good news – the return of JS Giguere, Chris Pronger and Francois Beauchemain – and bad news – the loss of captain Scott Niedermayer – in the same week.  The good and bad seems to have mostly balanced out, though the Ducks lost their dominance in the West as they struggled through their injuries.

3. San Jose Sharks (0.687, 0)
Evgeni Nabokov continues to play well but lose games.  The Sharks have stayed with their rotation, as neither Toskala nor Nabokov has played more than a single game in a row all year long.  They will be fielding calls for one or both of their netminders for the next month, but have yet to make a decision on which one is their man going forward.

4. Buffalo Sabres (0.582, 0)
The Sabres haven’t dropped in the standings but that won’t last if the Sabres don’t turn their slide around.  Word out of Buffalo is that Martin Biron will get the start Tuesday night, and possibly Thursday as well, to give Ryan Miller the chance to refocus.

5. New Jersey Devils (0.569, +2)
So much for the theory Martin Brodeur’s success hinged on a dominant defence corps.

6. Ottawa Senators (0.567, 0)
The loss to Montreal was a bitter pill to swallow, as the Senators are mounting a steady climb with the Habs the next team to climb over.  Jason Spezza’s return was little more than a whisper.

7. Dallas Stars (0.557, -2)
Mike Modano is inching closer to a return.  He can’t return fast enough for the Stars.

8. Carolina Hurricanes (0.550, +1)
The Hurricanes are on pace to finish a full 10 points below Atlanta in the standings, but my Predicted Final Standings show the Canes taking the Division title.  Even with all their injuries, the Canes have remained competitive.  Their moves leading up to the trade deadline will say much about the chances this team has this year.

9. Vancouver Canucks (0.548, +2)
Roberto Luongo continues to play inspired hockey.  If Markus Nasland can start to score (the Canucks have to be interested in grabbing Forsberg) this team will be a lock to make the playoffs.

10. Nashville Predators (0.544, 0)
The Predators deserve a better spot in the Power Rankings, missing out because they give up too many shots.  With Vokoun and Mason behind them, that hardly seems to matter.

11. Tampa Bay Lightning (0.526, -3)
Do they have enough to squeak into the playoffs again?  Unlikely.

12. Toronto Maple Leafs (0.515, 0)
When Raycroft plays his best, this team is almost unbeatable.  If only he could do so regularly.

13. Colorado Avalanche (0.482, 0)
Can they find a better solution than Jose Theodore?  Can they find a solution to the elephant sized problem that is Theodore’s salary and poor play?

14. Florida Panthers (0.468, +1)
Ed Belfour is playing better than anyone gave him credit for when he signed last summer.  Despite Florida’s stronger play of late, it is unlikely they have the depth to beat out the teams around – and above – them in the standings.

15. New York Rangers (0.464, +3)
I expected Henrik Lundqvist to suffer a sophomore slump and be the problem in New York this year.  His play has been stellar, but the team around him has not been.  The Rangers are still one of the better teams fighting for the last few playoff spots, however.

16. Montreal Canadians (0.455, -2)
A recent win over the surging Senators was huge for the struggling Habs.  If they can string together a few more, they might help to solidify their playoff spot, which has been less and less solid for the last few weeks.

17. Atlanta Thrashers (0.450, -1)
My Power Rankings have been predicting a slide in Atlanta for months.  What do the Thrashers need more: defensive help or a top centerman?

18. Calgary Flames (0.434, -1)
They didn’t pay too high of a price, but Craig Conray may not have been the answer.  I would however expect at least a slight upsurge out of Conroy, which can only help the Flames short term.

19. Minnesota Wild (0.434, 0)
Anyone remember the Wild’s amazing start to the season?

20. Pittsburgh Penguins (0.410, +7)
Wow, what a surge!  Behind the inspired play of Mark Recchi the Penguins are making a serious push for the playoffs.

21. Edmonton Oilers (0.401, 0)
Petr Nedved has disappeared.  Petr Sykora disappeared a long time ago.  Helps explain why the Oilers are reportedly so interested in Darcy Tucker.

22. New York Islanders (0.386, 0)
Good enough to make the race interesting, but look for the Islanders to miss the playoffs again.

23. Boston Bruins (0.375, -3)
It has become clear that the tandem of Tim Thomas and Hannu Toivonen is simply not enough to get this team into the playoffs.  Who will the Bruins target for the trade deadline?

24. Chicago Blackhawks (0.367, +2)
I really feel bad for the city of Chicago.  Its fans and its players deserve better than the ownership seems willing to give.  It’ll be another long summer in Chicago.

25. Phoenix Coyotes (0.361, -2)
How much can the Coyotes squeeze in exchange for Shane Doan, Ladislav Nagy, Curtis Joseph and their other veteran assets?  Look for Doan, at least, to be traded as soon as the Coyotes find the right offer.

26. Washington Capitals (0.359, -2)
Do the Capitals look to trade Richard Zednik before the deadline?  He could bring a decent return from a team not willing to spend what it takes to grab Forsberg.

27. Los Angeles Kings (0.357, -2)
The future looks bright for this team.  But not the short-term future.  Sean Burke?

28. Columbus Blue Jackets (0.345, 0)
Who gets traded before the deadline?

29. St. Louis Blues (0.336, 0)
What can the Blues get for Eric Brewer?

30. Philadelphia Flyers (0.223, 0)
What can the Flyers get for Forsberg?

It’s wonderful how few teams are definitely out of the playoff picture, but for those few that are out, it’s tough to find much to say beyond speculating over who will be left when March rolls around.

Here are tonight’s picks:

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Trade speculations are starting to heat up, and I’m going to take this opportunity to mention one rumour you should be hearing about: goaltending help for the Boston Bruins. Last night Boston gave up 6 goals to the New York Rangers. Both Tim Thomas and Hannu Toivonen were porous at best, with Toivonen failing to stop the first shot he faced after coming in to relieve Thomas. Which of those two gets the nod tonight against the Sabres? Which one will want it?

There aren’t many goaltenders available, and it will be interesting to see who the Bruins target. Martin Biron and David Abeischer are likely untouchable, as neither Buffalo nor Montreal will be eager to trade Biron within their division. Vesa Toskala, JS Giguerre, Ilya Bryzgalov and Evgeni Nabokov could all be available but none will be cheap. Nabokov for soon to be UFA Brad Stuart rumours started months ago and could gain volume after tonight’s dreadful performance.

Darren Eliot, a Sports Illustrated Columnist, has written about three players in the East he says need to step up to help their teams in the remaining weeks of the regular season. I take exception to two of his three choices, starting with

Sergei Samsonov: “An off-season signing, Samsonov has likewise failed to provide the Habs with the offensive spark they’d hoped for. With just six goals and 19 points in 46 games, he was a healthy scratch against Vancouver on January 16. Coach Guy Carbonneau looked me squarely in the eye and flatly stated, “We need him to be better. It’s not that he hasn’t worked hard, but he needs to be more productive.”

Maybe the problem was signing Samsonov to such a lucrative deal in the first place. $7 million over two years for a player who scored 23 goals last year seemed a little high over the summer, and it’s looking monstrously large after 7 goals in 49 games this year. I know the market for wingers was rather thin, and I know the Habs were disappointed after missing out on Jason Arnott, but signing Samsonov is the one move Bob Gainey has made that I’ve considered a big mistake from day one. Although I must admit I expected Samsonov’s health to be the real problem this year, and that has not been the case. Health wise he rebounded during the lockout year far better than I would have guessed. Production wise, however, he has not. Maybe it was Joe Thornton all along.

Next Eliot talks about

Matt Cullen: “Maybe he’s been pressing to impress, but it hasn’t worked out very well thus far for Cullen as a Blueshirt. Coach Tom Renney recently shifted him to wing from his natural position of center on the second line because of his lack of assist production (11) while skating with Brendan Shanahan.”

Yes, I know Cullen scored 25 goals last year, but look at his career stats. Before that his career high was 18 goals all the way back in 2001-02. Cullen deserved a raise but he deserved it because of his grit and leadership, not his offensive flair. Cullen’s salary and use (second line with Prucha and Brendan Shanahan) have created the expectations that last year’s 25 goals was a jumping point. It was clearly a peak and not a valley. Get used to it. If the Rangers are going to stay in the playoff hunt, it won’t be because of Cullen’s production.

But his leadership will be invaluable if they get there.

Eliot also talks about Brad Richards, but I’m going to leave that one for now. Richards is in the same situation this year that Martin St. Louis was in a year ago. He’ll pick up the pace when he puts the pressure of his huge contract behind him. Looks like that’ll be next year at the earliest, however.

Here are tonight’s picks:

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NY Rangers (.475)     Boston (.498)
Ottawa (.605)         Montreal (.522)

Only two games tonight. The Rangers and Bruins have both struggled with inconsistencies of late, and Montreal has been stumbling since before the All-Star break. Still, a divisional matchup and a game between two teams fighting for their playoff lives is nothing to complain about.

Here are tonight’s picks:

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Calgary (.269)            Chicago (.408)
Dallas (.567)              Anaheim (.798)
Philadelphia (.288)       Atlanta (.454)
Colorado (.478)          Detroit (1.044)
San Jose (.722)        Vancouver (.427)
San Jose may have more trouble than the wide margin between Power Rankings would indicate.  It’s Evgeni Nabokov’s turn in goal for the Sharks, and while his GAA and SV% have been solid all year long, the team seems to win much more frequently with Vesa Toskala behind them.

Dallas in Anaheim could also be a good game, though both teams have been ravaged by injuries lately.  Scott Niedermayer is unlikely to play tonight and his loss could easily upset a team that has struggled with injuries already.

I just saw this article, and while I’m still chewing on the idea, the more I think about it the more I like the idea.

The NHL’s All-Star Game is gone until next season, but International Ice Hockey Federation president Rene Fasel is angling to put on a different battle of the stars: The Stanley Cup champion vs. the best team in Europe.

“We must have a club championship – the winner of the Stanley Cup against the winner of the European Hockey League,” Fasel told The Hockey News in an interview with Paul Romanuk. “It is a must for the NHL and it is a must for us. It is a must for the hockey fans and for the game of hockey. Hockey needs it on both sides.

What we need is two teams who actually care about the game they’re playing.  The All-Star game is nothing more than a joke, and I can’t reasonably blame the players for not putting their necks on the line.  It’s bad enough for a team to lose a key player in the Olympics, but during the All-Star game?

Not a bad idea.  I for one will be keeping my eyes on this.

Here are tonight’s picks:

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NY Rangers (.470)       Philadelphia (.120)
Boston (.277)                Ottawa (.547)
Montreal (.379)              Toronto (.400)
Buffalo (.586)              NY Islanders (.412)
Carolina (.468)             Washington (.416)
Minnesota (.275)             Columbus (.389)
New Jersey (.510)            Florida (.613)
Nashville (.496)             St. Louis (.311)
Pittsburgh (.353)             Phoenix (.404)
Los Angeles (.323)           Edmonton (.459)

Plenty of games went into overtime last night, which I always love to see.  I’m not a fan of the shootout but I enjoy overtime a great deal.  I would personally vote to lose the shootout in exchange for extending OT to 10 or 15 minutes.

On that note, 3 of 4 Toronto-Montreal games this year have gone to the shootout, and I can’t believe I have to work late tonight and will miss this game.  Leafs-Habs games are easily my favourite games to watch.  Enjoy it for me!