NHL analysis

Final December Prediction Totals: 118-for-210; 56.2%

Here are the first picks of the new year:

Away                        Home

——————————-

Phoenix (.216)           Washington (.433)
Colorado (.441)          Nashville (.549)
Atlanta (.525)          Ottawa (.408)
NY Islanders (.474)     Buffalo (.582)
Boston (.429)          Toronto (.376)
For January I have gone back to using Power Rankings without including offensive and defensive statistics for my game predictions.  I am working on incorporating an adjusted version of my offensive and defensive statistics that include opponent defensive strength in calculating offensive stats, and vice versa.  When I complete that I will likely implement it back into my predictions, likely for February.  I felt that the addition of the offensive and defensive stats were misleading, giving a significant advantage to teams that took plenty of shots, regardless of their winning percentage.  Taking 35+ shots per game doesn’t help if 34 of those shots are from shallow angles or without traffic in front of the net.

Last night of the year.  It’s been fun, and I’m looking forward to finishing the season and continuing into next year and beyond!

December prediction totals: 116-for-204; 56.9%

Here are tonight’s picks:

Away                        Home

——————————–

Anaheim (.771)      Minnesota (.599)
Edmonton (.342)       Calgary (.681)
Los Angeles (.378)     Detroit (.855)
San Jose (.629)         Dallas (.634)
Chicago (.332)        Columbus (.300)
Philadelphia (.279)      Carolina (.806)

Minnesota has been strong at home but their troubles on the road suggest they aren’t a serious Cup Contender this year.  Games against teams like the Ducks are other tests, and a win tonight would go a long way towards re-convincing me that the Wild are the real deal this year.

The Battle of Alberta is always a tough one to call.  This one will be much closer than the difference between the power rankings might suggest.

December Prediction Totals: 110-for-195; 56.4%

Here are tonight’s picks:

Away                        Home

——————————-

Atlanta (.527)            Buffalo (.599)
Ottawa (.555)         Toronto (.451)
New Jersey (.373)      NY Islanders (.527)
Washington (.362)     NY Rangers (.374)
Boston (.382)           Nashville (.511)
San Jose (.645)      Phoenix (.394)
Colorado (.473)      St. Louis (.280)
Montreal (.486)          Tampa Bay (.498)
Vancouver (.525)    Edmonton (.477)

December Prediction Totals: 105-for-185; 56.8%

Here are tonight’s picks:

Away                        Home

——————————–

Anaheim (.816)      Carolina (.783)
Los Angeles (.404)    Calgary (.695)
St. Louis (.229)         Colorado (.495)
Columbus (.336)        Minnesota (.607)
NY Rangers (.446)  Ottawa (.391)
Toronto (.532)        Pittsburgh (.320)
Washington (.374)     New Jersey (.638)
Boston (.348)            Chicago (.482)
Nashville (.521)          Dallas (.584)
Montreal (.501)          Florida (.563)

December Prediction Totals: 103-for-180; 57.2%

Here are tonight’s picks:

Away                        Home

———————————

Carolina (.433)          Buffalo (.591)
Detroit (.750)         Columbus (.304)
Los Angeles (.350)    Edmonton (.497)
Philadelphia (.257)     Tampa Bay (.517)
Phoenix (.120)          San Jose (.621)

New Power Rankings are up.  Here are some highlights.

9. Toronto Maple Leafs (-3 from last week): If offensive and defensive stats are left out, the Leafs drop down to 15th.  The still haven’t dropped below 0.500 since their first game of the season, but they’re barely staying over that mark, either.  With injuries starting to thin the ranks, the young players and the fringe players need to pick up the pace if the Leafs have any hope of moving up the standings and making the playoffs.

15. Ottawa Senators (-5): Still plagued by inconsistencies.  Martin Gerber has played a few good games but still isn’t earning his big paycheck.  With Jason Spezza out long term the Senators are back to facing questions about making the playoffs and not about making a deep run.

18. New York Rangers (-7): Struggling of late.  Were the off-season signings mistakes?  Before last year’s surprising success, the Rangers were supposedly working on a long-term plan.  Is that still in place?  With the Rangers currently on pace for about an 82 point season, their fans better hope so.

30. Philadelphia Flyers (-2): The firing of Ken Hitchcock is looking more and more like a mistake.  While injuries have certainly played a part, the recent success of the Columbus Blue Jackets suggests that the coaching was not the problem.

December Prediction Totals: 98-for-173; 56.6%

Here are tonight’s games:

Away                           Home

————————————–

Dallas (.446)                Colorado (.485)
Calgary (.247)              Vancouver (.459)
Montreal (.475)         Washington (.410)
NY Islanders (.378)   Ottawa (.345)
Atlanta (.506)            Pittsburgh (.333)
Philadelphia (.275)        Florida (.544)
Minnesota (.198)          Detroit (.896)

Sorry about the lateness of this entry. Apparently my big Christmas gift this year was a nasty cold.

Away             Home

—————————–

Dallas           Chicago
Washington   Buffalo
Florida          Carolina
Vancouver     Calgary
St. Louis       Nashville
Tampa Bay   Atlanta
Boston         Columbus
Minnesota     Toronto
Pittsburgh     New Jersey
Anaheim      San Jose
Phoenix        Los Angeles
NY Rangers   NY Islanders