Archive for November, 2006

Game Predictions Nov 27, 2006

Sunday, November 26th, 2006

Ottawa disappointed me last night, but both other games went as expected.

November Prediction Totals: 102-for-177; 57.6%

Here are tonight’s picks:

Away            Home                    Prediction

————————————————–

Dallas          Detroit                   Detroit
New Jersey   Los Angeles           Los Angeles

Dallas and Detroit aught to be a good game.  Detroit made the decision to never play Dominic Hasek in back-to-back games and never put him in in relief.  They prefer both carrying three goalies and even calling up a fourth when necessary because of injuries.  So why was Hasek on the bench as backup in their last game?  Seems like an awful lot of trouble and an awful big risk.  And they still don’t have a solution for next season.

Game Predictions Nov 26, 2006

Saturday, November 25th, 2006

November Prediction Totals: 100-for-174; 57.5%

I caught one upset (Los Angeles over Calgary) but guessed wrong on the other (Nashville over Detroit).  Vancouver, already having trouble scoring goals, will really feel the (hopefully short) loss of Daniel Sedin.

Here are tonight’s picks:

Away            Home                    Prediction

———————————————–

Ottawa         Tampa Bay             Ottawa
Calgary         Anaheim                Anaheim
Buffalo         NY Rangers            Buffalo

Ottawa over Tampa Bay is the only upset predicted, and makes sense, given the recent streak the Sens have been on.

Calgary couldn’t get a win over the very beatable Kings last night and now face the very strong Ducks.  Anaheim dominated the Sharks last week, which humbled my long-term prediction that the Sharks would take the division and the conference.  I still think that once the Thornton-Cheechoo train gets going the Sharks will come back though :).

Bruins-Leafs Postgame

Saturday, November 25th, 2006

Since I’ve mentioned it over and over recently, let’s start with the forecheck. The Leafs will live and die this year by their forecheck. So if you’re trying to get a cycle going, which defenceman fishing the puck out of the corner is your worst nightmare? I’ll give you a hint: he’s freakin’ huge.

If I’m the first forechecker deep in Boston’s end, the last guy I want to have to fight with for the puck is Zdeno Chara. Now, Chara regularly plays close to or over 30 minutes a game, so you can’t just wait until he’s on the bench. But you’ve got two corners to choose from - choose the one that doesn’t have Chara in it! I don’t care if Chris Pronger, Scott Stevens and god are stacked in the other corner, you put the puck as far away from Chara as you can.

Well, the Leafs didn’t do that. They instead chose to give the puck to Chara over and over, with predictable results. They rarely got a strong forecheck going and as a result were baddly outchanced (if not outshot) tonight. The worst part? The same thing happened last week.

The only positive to take out of the ridiculous decision to test Chara all night long is that we got to see Alexei Ponikarovsky throw himself into the fray time and time again, and while I think we can all agree Chara was the winner, Ponikarovsky did better than most players I’ve seen in that situation. There aren’t many defencemen who can make Poni look small, but Chara does that, and yet he was unable to dominate or intimidate the forecheck. This bodes very well for the Leafs, and almost as well for both Ponikarovsky and also Nikolai Antropov, who was almost as good in the Boston zone. Once again Antropov and Ponikarovsky, both free agents after tonight, were the best Leaf forwards. You can’t say they’re just the best the Leafs can throw out there anymore - they are bona-fide top line wingers. And they’re both still getting better.

Another young forward I am usually very high on is Matthew Stajan, who unfortunately looked much weaker tonight. Stajan was one of the worst Leafs for giveaways and half-hearted efforts tonight, something I’m sure Paul Maurice took note of. Luckily this was just an off night for Stajan. He’ll bounce back.

Other Leafs who had a weak game I’m not quite so easy on. Tops on that list is Bryan McCabe. Now, yes, McCabe took a hard shot on an unprotected ankle, and yes, the Leafs played with effectively 4 1/2 defencemen tonight after Kubina got hurt (I’m a fan of Wade Belak but he’s a 5 minute a game player at best). Neither of these factors excuse McCabe’s sloppy, lazy play tonight, however. For an almost $6 million blueliner, McCabe didn’t skate hard, didn’t shoot hard, didn’t play the body hard, basically didn’t show up. Not acceptable. The game-breaking goal, with 4 minutes left, came because McCabe decided to try some sort of a stick-swipe pock-check piece of crap instead of taking Brad Boyes sitting all alone in the slot. Even Antropov came roaring from the point trying to interfere with Boyes. McCabe showed plenty of emotion after the goal was scored, but if he showed a little sense a little earlier, it didn’t have to happen.

And finally on McCabe, I know there were under 40 seconds left, but get your ass in gear! He took a solid 10 seconds getting the puck back up the ice after Boston cleared the zone. If you score with 40 seconds left, you have a chance, albeit a small one, of getting a second goal and making it to overtime. If you don’t even cross the red line until the clock is down to 15 seconds, the game is already over. Not acceptable.

Finally, a note on playing Belak over Brendan Bell. I know Bell struggled in his last game, I know Maurice had good intentions sitting the youngster down, giving him time to work some confidence back into his game. But tonight was a crystal clear example of why playing Belak as a 5 minute a game defenceman is just not a good idea. While Kubina was getting some work down on his broken chops, the Leafs may as well have been playing with 4 bodies on the blueline. I thought the point of signing Kubina and Hal Gill was to take some of the pressure of Tomas Kaberle and McCabe. How does playing a 5-man rotation and a hard-working, well liked but borderline player as your 6th defenceman lower the top duo’s minutes?

The Ron MacLean Ambush

Saturday, November 25th, 2006

First off, I really enjoy listening to Ron MacLean - most of the time. But over the last few seasons, I’ve been disgusted on several occasions with the way he blatantly ambushes his interview-ees. Last year, in an interview with Colin Campbell that started as a discussion about the referees and deteriorated into an outright assault on the way the games had been called. And while I can agree with many of the points he makes - sometimes the refing is downright atrocious - MacLean, an amateur referee and hockey broadcaster, can do better than getting into an argument with Campbell about new rules less than a year after they are introduced.

The worst part for me is not that he’s asking tough questions or who he’s asking, but rather the way that these “interviews” go down. MacLean goes into them prepared with video clips, stats and speeches ready to go and he uses them not as a tool for constructive criticism but as offensive weapons.

Tonight, during the pre-game show leading up to the Leafs-Bruins game on Hockey Night in Canada, he repeats the ordeal. This time his subjects include late hits, hits to the head, lack of hitting and the continuing stream of penalties. And once again, he’s prepared with clip after clip, with stat after stat, and he throws them down like gauntlets one after another. He leaves his poor guest the choice between bashing his employer or trying to argue that guys getting knocked out with concussions is a good thing. Give me a break. And it doesn’t matter who the guest is. Colin Campbell should be capable of ready to defend himself and the game, but that doesn’t give MacLean the right to ambush him on live TV.

I’m always a fan of anything that can improve the great game of hockey. But shame on Ron MacLean for ambushing his guests, for attacking them instead of drawing them into what could be meaningful and productive discussions.

Game Predictions Nov 25, 2006

Friday, November 24th, 2006

Carolina beat Boston as I said I expected, but they did it in front of John Grahame, not Cam Ward.  Tim Thomas is, in my opinion, one of the worst goaltenders in the league.  I feel bad saying it, because he’s a feel-good story and I love a guy who works his way into the league after no one wants him.  The problem is he shows no consistency.  He’ll play well enough to be one of the NHL.com weekly 3 stars one week, and he’ll let in soft goals by the bucketful the next.  You can’t win games without consistency in your net, and Thomas just can’t provide it.  Too bad for Boston.

November Prediction Totals: 95-for-163; 58.3%.

Here are tonight’s picks:

Away                Home                    Prediction

—————————————————–

Boston             Toronto                Toronto
Philadelphia       Montreal                Montreal
Washington      NY Islanders          NY Islanders
Minnesota        Columbus              Minnesota
Phoenix           St. Louis                St. Louis
Detroit            Nashville                 Detroit
Florida             Atlanta                  Atlanta
NY Rangers      Pittsburgh             NY Rangers
Calgary            Los Angeles           Los Angeles
New Jersey      San Jose                San Jose
Vancouver       Colorado                Vancouver

Montreal and Philly are both coming off wins from last night.  The Flyers beat the Blue Jackets; the Habs beat the Sabres.  If Montreal takes the night off after a big win, they’ll lose, but otherwise they should skate circles around the Flyers.  Antero Niitymaki played great last night, meaning Robert Esche should get the start tonight.  Could the odds get stacked any higher in Montreal’s favour?

Calgary has been great recently and would be an obvious choice to beat my predictions.

Game Predictions Nov 24, 2006

Thursday, November 23rd, 2006

So of course, two nights ago I predict a Nashville win and they come out with a pitiful effort.  Last night I predict a Nashville loss and they utterly dominate and blow out the Vancouver Canucks 6-0.  Ah well.  That’s why I’m not a gambler.

Plenty of games tonight.  Here are the picks:

Away                Home                    Prediction

—————————————————

Carolina            Boston                  Boston
Columbus         Philadelphia            Columbus
New Jersey       Anaheim                Anaheim
Phoenix           Minnesota               Minnesota
Pittsburgh       NY Islanders            NY Islanders
Toronto          Washington            Toronto
Chicago          Edmonton                Edmonton
Ottawa           Florida                     Florida
St. Louis        Detroit                    Detroit
Los Angeles    Dallas                     Dallas
Montreal         Buffalo                    Buffalo
Atlanta           Tampa Bay              Atlanta

Hmm, couple interesting ones here.  The most obvious of course is Ken Hitchcock’s old team visiting his new team.  I think the Blue Jackets will be fired up to impress the new man in town and will win this easily.  Unfortunately for Hitch, I think that will be bad in the medium term, as it may create expectations that Hitchcock will be an instant fix.  He won’t be.  He will do wonders for this team but it’s a long, slow rise from the cellar.

Carolina and Boston have both played pretty well recently.  I think Carolina will bounce back with Cam Ward in goal again after a rough night heading into the Thanksgiving weekend.  This is the first prediction I do not feel confident in.

Toronto in Washington is a game I wish I could sit down and watch.  Alas, duty calls (plus I don’t subscribe to LeafsTV).  Last year the Leafs managed only a single win in four games against the Capitals, one of the many factors which could be pointed at while considering that little 2 point gap between 8th and 9th place.  The Leafs are coming off of a disappointing win against the Islanders and a confidence-inspiring, close and tough-fought game against the Buffalo Sabres.  They deserve to win this game and Paul Maurice should be able to keep them playing well enough to deserve it.

Ottawa in Florida: Florida has been great at home this year and Ottawa’s power ranking is still recovering from their dreadful start.  Second game where I have no confidence in the prediction.  I think Ray Emery will start and the Sens will win another game.

As much as I would love to see Alexander Ovechkin play the Leafs, I think I would go to Buffalo to see the Canadiens if I had to pick a game tonight.  The Sabres are always a fun game to watch, and Montreal is one of few teams with the speed up front to both keep up with the Sabres’ forwards and give their blueline troubles.  I mentioned the goaltending tandem dissolving into a Christobel Huet leads, David Abeischer gets $2 million to be the backup situation that I consider healthier than a 2-game rotation.

Atlanta in Tampa Bay: I want to like the Thrashers, I really do.  But with Bob Hartley behind the bench, I just can’t.  The ugly, bush-league reputation he’s built up has reared up again, leading to three suspensions, including to their captain Scott Melamby.  Call me crazy but your team captain should not be taking a stupid instigator penalty and suspension in a game in November.  But that’s the type of hockey Hartley’s team plays.  Oh, and I refuse to forgive Marian Hossa for the needless and thoughtless stick-swinging that very nearly finished Bryan Berard’s career.

JFJ’s Contract Situation

Thursday, November 23rd, 2006

Since everyone and their dog has been chiming in on the contract of GM John Ferguson Jr., here’s my $0.02.

Ferguson’s status is as muddy as the media wants it to be. Ferguson will be rewarded with a contract or he will be let go. Why is such a big story beyond that?

Ask Ken Hitchcock how secure a long-term contract made his position with the Philadelphia Flyers. Ferguson could receive a 15-year contract today and be fired tomorrow. He could just as easily be left hanging until the last day of his contract and be extended at that time.

The Leafs did the right thing picking up his contract when they did simply to shut up the media, who are obviously desperate for a negative story about a Leafs’ team that looks much better than they were supposed to this season. Why are we talking about Ferguson’s contract status rather than the superb coaching of Paul Maurice? Why is this an issue?

Detroit “Official” Press Release

Thursday, November 23rd, 2006

Vancouver Canucks Op Ed Blog brought to my attention an official press release from the NHL relating to the Detroit Red Wings. A must read. Absolutely priceless.