Archive for November, 2006

Game Predictions Dec 1, 2006

Thursday, November 30th, 2006

Here are today’s picks:

Away                        Home                        Prediction

———————————————————

Detroit (0.562)         Minnesota (0.536)      Detroit
Columbus (0.162)     Calgary (0.575)          Calgary
Pittsburgh (0.377)    New Jersey (0.537)     New Jersey
St. Louis (0.185)      Chicago (0.426)         Chicago
NY Rangers (0.588)  Buffalo (0.625)           Buffalo

The numbers in brackets are the Away and Home Power Rankings, respectively for each team.  That should give an indication of when games are statistically expected to be blow-outs or close games.

Game Predictions November Wrap-Up

Thursday, November 30th, 2006

Final November Prediction Stats:

Points Favoured Was Correct:

116-for-202 - 57.4%

Home Team Won:

111-for-202 - 55.0%
My Predictions:

118-for-202 - 58.4%

Games Ending In Regulation:

99-for-164 - 60.4%

Games Ending in Overtime

11-for-18 - 61.1%

Games Ending In Shoot-Out

8-for-20 - 40.0%

My Predictions Agreed With Points:

92-for-152 - 60.5%

My Predictions Disagreed With Points:

26-for-50 - 52.0%

Game Predictions Nov 30, 2006

Wednesday, November 29th, 2006

Well, I would have had a perfect night last night if Dallas hadn’t given up two third period goals to the lowly Blackhawks.  What the heck is happening to Marty Turco?  Does this mean he’ll be an All-Star when the playoffs role around?

November Prediction Totals: 112-for-192; 58.3%

Here are tonight’s picks:

Away                Home                    Prediction

——————————————————-

Tampa Bay        Boston                  Boston
Montreal            Carolina                 Carolina
Toronto            Atlanta                   Atlanta
Anaheim            Vancouver             Anaheim
Los Angeles       Phoenix                 Phoenix
Colorado            Edmonton             Edmonton
Nashville            St. Louis               Nashville
Dallas               Washington            Dallas
Florida              Ottawa                   Ottawa
Philadelphia        NY Islanders           NY Islanders

To me the most interesting question will be answered in Ottawa.  Who starts in goal for the Senators tonight?  Martin Gerber started shaky against his former team, but looked very strong overall.  Do you give him a few starts in a row to try and get him on a roll or do you reward the patience and solid play of Ray Emery.  And I know this is the most important question because if Emery doesn’t play, there’s a very real chance my goalies won’t play their minimum combined three games this week and I will forfeit four points in my hockey pool.  Not good!

Toronto in Atlanta is a close game statistically, but the Leafs have really had the Thrashers number the last few seasons, and they should come in really pissed off and blowing three games against Boston in two weeks.

Closest game statistically is Phoenix over Los Angeles, but since no one cares about that game, we’ll skip over it to Boston over Tampa Bay.  I’d have to disagree with my stats here and pick Tampa Bay.  Boston’s home record has been very good but they’ll be flying high over sweeping the Leafs.  Tampa Bay’s forwards I think have enough skill to run- err, skate- circles around the big but slow Bruins Blueliners.

Montreal in Carolina should be a heck of a game.  Did anyone see the last Habs game?  Two shutouts awarded in that one.  0-0 tie broken only by the shootout.  That’s pretty amusing, actually.

Toughest Division?

Wednesday, November 29th, 2006

With the emphasis on in-division games in the current NHL schedule, much focus is placed on which division is the best or the toughest. Here are a few ways to look at this question:

Most Points: Northeast - 150 points
Second Place: Pacific - 148

These two, along with the Northwest, were expected to be among the top divisions, and the total points seems to support that statement. There are two factors that can increase the total points within a division: strong play in games against teams outside of the division and games within the division going to overtime or shootouts. The scary thing for the Northeast division is that Ottawa, expected to be a top team in the NHL, just managed to get back to 0.500 hockey with their last win.

I also looked at points per game played, in case that made any difference. It did not. Both of these two division were well in the lead, showing that while there is some discrepancy in number of games played, on a per division basis it evens out pretty well.

Smallest Point Value: Northeast & Northwest - 24 points
Third Place - Southeast - 21 points

The Pacific Division falls out of this ranking by having the dreadful Phoenix Coyotes in their basement. Contrast this with Boston and Colorado, each with 24 points, fully 8 points more than the Coyotes. Though neither the Bruins nor the Avalanche have been all-star teams, there are no easy opponents in the Northeast or Northwest like the Coyotes.

Largest Point Value Minus Smallest: Northwest - 4 points
Second Place: Atlantic - 12 points

In this category smaller is stronger, as the spread of points within the Northwest teams is less than 1/6th that of the largest gap, which is not surprisingly in the Pacific Division, where leading Anaheim has a 26 point gap over the Phoenix Coyotes. This is an interesting comparison because of how many games the division teams play against each other. Colorado could catch division leading Edmonton with just two wins!

These were just a few ways in which stats can back up what common sense tells us already. The Pacific Division features three of the very best teams in the West but they certainly benefit from 8 games against the Coyotes, not to mention the Los Angeles Kings. Conversely, in the Northeast and Northwest divisions, or even the Atlantic, the worst teams are much stronger, which both evens out the division and also increases the overall “strength” of the division. In my opinion, the strongest division has to be the Northeast (no, not just because I’m a Leafs fan). Boston has shown tremendous improvements after a rocky start, likely in large part because their free agent signings are starting to gel and develop some chemistry. Ottawa is a much better team than their record so far indicates. Toronto has been inconsistent but has showed they can skate with even the speedy Sabres. Montreal is speedy and so long as one of their goaltenders is hot they will remain as a legitimate threat. Buffalo is dominating the East conference even with an unending stream of injuries. The division has no glaring weaknesses.

Game Predictions Nov 29, 2006

Tuesday, November 28th, 2006

November Prediction Totals: 110-for-189; 58.2%

Here are tonight’s picks:

Away            Home                    Prediction

———————————————–

Nashville       Philadelphia             Nashville
San Jose      Minnesota               San Jose
Dallas           Chicago                  Dallas

Three pretty straight up predictions.  Chicago and Minnesota have had strong streaks but overall have looked weak, while Philly has been awful all season long.  Nashville, San Jose and Dallas are three of the best teams in the West and indeed in the entire NHL.

San Jose did play last night, though they have the advantage of playing Evgeni Nabokov when they decide to give Vesa Toskala the night off.

Bruins-Leafs Postgame

Tuesday, November 28th, 2006

I’m not entirely sure why the Leafs have had such problems with the Bruins in recent games, but I have my suspicions. It seems to me that the Boston Blueline is just the right (or wrong, depending on viewpoint) size to give the Leaf forecheckers fits.

Zdeno Chara, Andrew Alberts, Paul Mara… they’re not very fast, but they are very big. Just big enough to keep the Buds from getting a strong cycle going. They clog the slot, they clog the corners, and while the Leafs solved the defence enough to get over 40 shots tonight, they didn’t get the really quality chances they were looking for.

I’m not a big fan of Tim Thomas, but he’s more than capable of making saves coming from 30 foot wristers with no traffic. The lone Leaf goal was, not surprisingly, a garbage goal from Nikolai Antropov, the result of hard work and a solid drive to the net. Many more similar plays fizzled out because Boston did an excellent job stopping the Leafs from getting anywhere near the net.

I didn’t see as many dump-ins to Chara’s side of the rink, but mostly because I didn’t see many dump-ins. Even after the Bruins displayed time and again their plan was to line up four men at their own blueline and dare the Leafs to try and carry the puck in, the Leafs tried to carry the puck in. And it didn’t work.

So, another loss to another division rival the Leafs have had trouble with of late. Between the Sabres, Senators and now Bruins, the Leafs have to play 24 games a year against teams they have trouble beating even when they have the stronger team. Add eight always-close games against the Canadiens and the road out of the playoffs becomes apparent.

Not nearly enough emotion in these division games. That’ll have to change if the Buds want to keep ahead of the mob of teams just behind them in the standings, let alone catch some of the conference leaders.

Now, let’s talk about the power play. Specifically, the extended 5-on-3 the Leafs blew with the score tied 1-1.

5-on-3’s are dangerous for two reasons: first, and most obviously, with 2 extra men on the ice, there’s bound to be open men just itching for one-timers. Just based on percentages, the team on the power play should easily win virtually every race to the puck and virtually every single battle for the puck. The defenders cannot possibly cover all of their opponents and so they are left to try and limit the chances and especially limit their quality.

The second reason 2 man advantages are so effective is because it is so easy to tire out your opponent. With even a moderately successful power play, the defenders are forced to over-exert themselves trying to cover almost 2 opponents each.

The only time this doesn’t happen is when a team’s power play decides to stand still, relying on puck movement alone to get their opponents moving. This is what the Leafs did tonight. The three Bruins were able to stand virtually still, waving their sticks in the passing lanes they knew the Leafs would use.

Word is out on the Leaf power play, and Paul Maurice and Co. had better take note. If the Leafs make the same mistake they did last year - trying one play over and over and lack of success be damned - the power play will fizzle just as it did a year ago. The play may have changed, but a diagonal cross-criss pass to Darcy Tucker is no harder to defend against than a point to point one-timer from Bryan McCabe at the blueline. At least, not when everyone knows that it’s coming.

The same principles are also in play in regular 5-on-4 power plays, though everything is obviously enhanced when up 2 men. We need to see much more movement - from players and not only from the puck - on the power play. Keep the opponent guessing, look for opportunities, keep those big mobile screens - your forwards and your opponents defencemen - shifting in front of the goalie. Just moving the puck is simply not enough.

Power Rankings Updated

Tuesday, November 28th, 2006

New Power Rankings are posted. Here are your highlights:

3. Dallas Stars (+2 from last week): Sneak back into the top three on the back of strong goaltending from Mike Smith. Marty who?

6. Nashville Predators (+2): Strongest power rank with an offence/defence below 1.000. That means that the Preds are the best team that still gives up more shots and goals than it takes. With starter Tomas Vokoun out, will they stumble? I’ll bet they’re happy now they hung on to Chris Mason.

12. New York Islanders (+6): The loss of Alexei Yashin will hurt, but Rick DiPietro’s play is at least making his ludicrous contract seem… well, ludicrous rather than criminally insane.

13. Tampa Bay Lightning (+7): Martin St. Louis is coming on strong. The Lightning have found solid goaltending from an unlikely source. If last year is any indication, that means Tampa will resemble Montreal or Boston from last year: better than expected but not quite good enough.

19. New Jersey Devils (-8): Biggest drop this week. Not scoring enough goals… not scoring enough goals… not scori - broken record or not, the Devils need more offense, especially from their big top line. Patrick who?

21. Florida Panthers (-4): It seems that, at least without Todd Bertuzzi, the Panthers this year are not even as good as they were at the end of last season. I didn’t like how Roberto Luongo left town, but I understand why he did.

25 through 30: No movement in the bottom six teams this weak. Whether it’s losing games or not taking enough shots or scoring enough goals, these teams are not showing any signs of changing their worrisome habits.

Game Predictions Nov 28, 2006

Monday, November 27th, 2006

2 for 2 last night, and both were upsets.  Nifty.  November Prediction totals: 104-for-179; 58.1%.

Here are tonight’s picks:

Away                Home                    Prediction

——————————————————-

Atlanta             NY Rangers            Atlanta
Anaheim           Edmonton              Edmonton
Columbus         Vancouver              Vancouver
Colorado          Calgary                  Calgary
NY Islanders     Pittsburgh              Pittsburgh
San Jose          St. Louis                San Jose
Ottawa             Carolina                 Carolina
Boston             Toronto                 Toronto
Washington       Tampa Bay            Tampa Bay
Florida              Montreal                 Montreal

Anaheim in Edmonton should be one hell of a game.  The Ducks could be without both JS Giguere and Ilya Bryzgalov, which would significantly hurt their chances against a very skilled Edmonton team.  On the other hand from all reports Michael Wall looked decent enough in his debut.  I’m sure the Ducks would prefer to have either of their regulars back, of course.

Islanders versus Penguins could easily go the other way, especially if the Isles are Yashin-less and the Pens get Crosby back for this game.  I do hope the Islanders can continue their strong start without their captain.  Ted Nolan deserves it.

Ottawa in Carolina should also be a good game.  Both the Sens and the Hurricanes have been hot lately, although I’d say the Senators need the win a little more.

Boston in Toronto should be a big win for the Leafs.  While Tim Thomas has been hot recently, he’s not a terribly consistent goaltender.  More importantly, the Leafs have lost twice to their divisional rival in the last few weeks and they are, or at least should be, embarrassed by their display in those two games.  Maybe they can get a decent cycle going and avoid dumping the puck into Zdeno Chara’s corner.