Game Predictions Oct 27, 2006

Wow, what a night of hockey we have tonight.  I can’t believe I have to miss the Leafs-Habs game!

Home                Away                        Predictions

———————————————————

Toronto             Montreal                   Montreal
Florida               NY Islanders              NY Islanders
Atlanta               Buffalo                     Buffalo
Ottawa              Boston                      Ottawa
Pittsburgh          Philadelphia               Pittsburgh
Detroit              St. Louis                   Detroit
Los Angeles       Dallas                        Dallas
NY Rangers        Phoenix                    NY Rangers
Tampa Bay        Carolina                    Carolina
Columbus          New Jersey                New Jersey
Anaheim            Chicago                    Anaheim
Washington       Edmonton                Edmonton
Nashville            Calgary                    Nashville

The Toronto-Montreal game should be a gem (they always are).  The statistical difference I have between these two teams heading into tonight’s game is 0.004.  Just to give you an idea, Pittsburgh has a current away power rank that is 0.489 higher than Philadelphia’s home power rank.

I almost hate to predict against Buffalo, even if they are poised to break one of the records currently held by the Leafs.  Should they win tonight, that’ll make 11 straight wins to open a season.  Should the new record have an asterisk because of their three shootout wins?  I say no.  Although 3 years ago those three wins would have been ties, the Sabres still won.  And the NHL standings aren’t decided by regulation victories, but by points.  And I should point out that I’ve predicted against Buffalo four times this year, and they’ve won all four of those games.

Los Angeles is a team I’m more confident predicting against.  They’ve managed to win only a single game that I predicted they would lose.

Check back early in November, because I’ll be posting power ranks and more.  A few tidbits:

- I currently have Buffalo, Minnesota and Dallas listed as the strongest three teams.  If team Offence and Defence are factored in, however, Detroit jumps to the number one spot, mostly due to their unbelievably stingy defence.  They’re averaging just over 23 shots plus goals allowed per game (the NHL average is over 33).

- When factoring in remaining schedule difficulty, Minnesota is currently my favourite to win the President’s Trophy.  Of course, since they’ve played 10 games and have 72 remaining, plenty will change, so take that with a grain of salt.

- A few teams that are statistically overachieving (on pace for more points than expected based on their remaining schedule difficulty) are the Calgary Flames, New York Rangers and Buffalo Sabres.

- A few teams that are statistically underachieving are the Detroit Red Wings, Chicago Blackhawks and Carolina Hurricanes.

- Detroit has had the most difficult schedule to date so far.  Pittsburgh has had the easiest.

Leave a Reply