NHL analysis

Editor’s note: this was a forum post I wrote over at the mapleleafs.com forums (my user name there is gekko).  It’s applicable beyond the Leafs, although the players mentioned are mostly Leafs players, so I decided to copy and paste it here, as well.

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It is a fact that only one team (the New York Rangers) have won a Stanley Cup in the last 10+ years without at least one player drafted in the top 5 overall by that team.  Given the emphasis on depth since the lockout ended, I would be surprised if this trend continues much longer, but it is a fact and it is worth noting.

The most recent champs, the Carolina Hurricanes, managed this almost entirely by accident: after making it to the finals one year, they absolutely tanked and were rewarded with Eric Staal.  And I think we can all agree that Staal was one of the integral parts ot he Hurricanes cup run.

Sluggo and I will and have disagreed in how many other key players on the team were drafted and/or developped by the Hurricanes, but we can agree on Staal at least.

There are a few ways a team like the Leafs can get a top five pick (and in some drafts, like this years, picks 4-5 are almost indistinguishable from picks 6-7 or even lower, so top five is not strictly neccessary).  More players are developping at an earlier age, and so the number of players who can and will be possible “franchise players” is going up almost every year.  Last year we very nearly got there - without the late season surge we would have had a top ten pick easily and could have been in the top 5 with either a particularly bad final month or a slight up-trade of picks on draft day.  It’s unfortunate that the Leafs were contenders for that last playoff spot so late into the season, since it made it even more bitter to see our draft pick get lower and lower and yet still miss the post-season.

A Carolina-like disaster season is not entirely out of the question (maybe that’s why we signed Gill  ).  Kaberle, Kubina and McCabe are locked up for 4-5 years, so a year or two would still leave the blueline mostly intact.  The forward lines would look very different of course, meaning if we do have a fall apart season and are on the outside looking in come trade deadline, Tucker, Peca, Kilger, Ponikarovsky and possibly even Sundin would be the likeliest candidates to be traded.  This wouldn’t be a bad outcome, as most top draft picks who have immediate (within 2-3 years) and dramatic impact are forwards.  Defencemen and goaltenders, no matter how good, tend to take a few years longer to develop.

The other alternatives are trading for a recently drafted top pick or an upcoming top draft pick from a team low in the standings.  Neither are very likely to occur, although things do happen (Johnson from Carolina, for example).  There are even rumblings that Evgeni Malkin wants out of Pittsburgh (not happy playing second fiddle to anyone, even Crosby), though the odds of the Leafs landing him are slim, to say the least.

As I said, the more likely outcome is that the new rules and emphasis on depth will take away from the need for a top five pick.  What the Leafs - indeed every team - need to be successful are for their players to over-perform.  Who expected Gerber to get 38 wins or Eric Staal to take a run at the Art Ross trophy before the season started last year?

Can the Leafs do that?  Pre-season says no, but we all know that the pre-season means nothing.  I for one am hopefull but I’m waiting to see how big an impact Paul Maurice has on the team.  Even with a reduction in scoring from last year, if the Leafs can reduce the shots and goals they allowed, they should be poised to at least make the playoffs, where anything can happen.

This entry was posted on Tuesday, October 3rd, 2006 at 7:25 pm and is filed under Toronto Maple Leafs, Carolina Hurricanes, -Team Info, -Blog. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.