NHL analysis

Additions: Jason Arnott, Josef Vasicek

Subtractions: Denis Arkhipov, Mark Eaton, Darren Haydar, Mike Sillinger, Brendan Witt, Scott Walker, Adam Hall, Danil Markov, Greg Johnson, Yannic Perrault (expected)

Analysis

Nashville has had a young, fast team for a number of years now, and they’ve quietly continued to build their team up for as long as they’ve been in the league. They resigned a large number of their key free agents over the summer, though a significant number of players left for other cities, as well. Markov, Sillinger, Witt (though he was a rental player) and especially Johnson will all be missed. I was very surprised the Preds couldn’t find room for Johnson in their lineup. He was a team leader, played in all types of game situations, and was a very solid and cheap pickup for divisional rival Detroit.

Jason Arnott is something of a gamble, but I think it will pay off. Nashville is a fairly low pressure hockey city, and Arnott is a very good player. He has been constantly knocked throughout his career, mostly in my opinion because fans expect a big, strong, skilled player like him to dominate game in and game out. He’s not a player who will win the Stanley Cup himself, and true, he’s never produced the way he’s been expected to. But he certainly has the capability to score, and to put up points, and he’ll have every opportunity to do so in Nashville. He’ll further have the opportunity to be the number one center, whereas in Dallas, no matter how well he did, he would also be second fiddle. So Nashville hopefully will be a good fit, offering him plenty of ice time, good linemates, and a little less pressure than most first line centers receive.

Vokoun will be the starter, of course, but during his injury late last season Chris Mason proved he could step up and fill in. Vokoun this year will have a bit of competition for that top spot. Though the league seems filled to the brim will goaltenders right now, Mason could also be moved if the right offer comes along during the next season. And of couse depth at goal is never a bad thing (ask the Atlanta Thrashers).

Nashville will face a bit stiffer competition in their division, but they have a legitimate shot at surpassing Detroit to claim the Central title. Can they make a splash in the playoffs? I would say they have a ways to go, yet. They were beaten soundly by a much deeper San Jose club last year, and the departure of Witt and Markov significantly hurt their depth on the blueline. Arnott should have a strong season, but his presence does not significantly deepen the team. In fact, when coupled with the loss of Sillinger and Johnson, the Thrashers are thinner up the middle than they were last season - though stronger on the top line.

Look for good things in the regular season, but don’t bet on a deep playoff run.

Additions: Matt Hussey, Dan Smith, Dominik Hasek, Krys Kolanos, Danil Markov, Dan Smith

Subtractions: Steve Yzerman, Mark Mowers, Brendan Shanahan, Manny Legace, Don MacLean

Analysis

Detroit is a team for whom anything less than the Stanely Cup is considered a failure. They are also a team undergoing a major changing of the guard this summer. With Steve Yzerman’s retirement and Shanahan’s defection to the Rangers, Detroit lost plenty of veteran leadership. Chris Chelios, back for one more year, will be leaned upon even more heavily, but the real burden will fall to Datsyuk and Zetterberg. The due led the Wings in points last year (87 and 85 points respectively) and will be required to repeat their performance if Detroit can have any hope of repeating as President’s Trophy winners.

Even if the team has trouble adjusting to the loss of two of their leaders, Detroit is pretty obviously a lock to at least make the playoffs. Playing 8 games against each of St. Louis, Chicago and Columbus (worst 3 teams in the West last year) is a tremendous boost to any team’s point total. But how will they do in the second season?

Picking up Dominik Hasek should help - so long as they conserve him more than Ottawa did last year and he remains healthy enough to play through the playoffs. In my opinion, Detroit’s playoff woes over the past few years is mostly caused my a mental block. They’ve become used to losing playoff series they are heavily favoured to win. Hasek, for all his faults, despite his age, despite his injuries, is a winner. He finds ways to win, no matter what it takes.

Danny Markov is another addition that should help. I had the pleasure of watching Markov frequently back when he played for the Leafs, and since then I’ve been unable to figure out why this guy moves around so often. He’s a solid, quick, smart defenceman who’s not afraid of blocking shots, throwing his body around, and will do anything to win. He comes to play every night and was pretty cheap ($2.5 million) considering what guys like Willie Mitchel or Jay Mckee were signing for.

Greg Johnson deserved more than his $500 000 and should have received far more attention than he got. He’ll be a quiet leader, he’ll make the guys around him better, and he’ll help the team in a variety of situations.

Can Hasek remain healthy throughout an entire season? If he doesn’t, the Wings have no one but Osgood to fall back on. Osgood is a very capable backup but the Wings have basically stated they have no confidence in him as their starter. Tough to inspire confidence in your teamates when your team doesn’t believe in you.

Detroit is very gracefully transitioning from the previous generation to the new. Expect great things from Datsyuk, Zetterberg, Kronwall and other young rising stars, while the veterans that remain will bring all the right things and only help the development of those young players. Schneider and Chelios in particular are excellent players but can’t carry a team like they once did.

The battle for the Central division should be a close one this year. Nashville improved over the summer, as did all three of the bottom feeders. Detroit will likely face a dramatic reduction in points since last season, and could easily lose their top spot to Nashville. If Hasek remains healthy, they should be a very tough team to knock off in the playoffs. But I’m not sure if I would want to rest my team on Hasek’s groin.

Additions: Brian Pothier, Richard Zednik, Donald Brashear, Trevor Byrns, Alexandre Giroux, Petr Taticek, Peter Vandemeer, Chad Wiseman

Subtractions: Jeff Halpern, Brian Wilsie, Mathieu Biron, Boyd Kane, Nolan Yonkman

Washington sure is lucky they have Ovenchkin locked up at under a million dollars for the next two years. They’re also lucky that once those two years are over, they can finally stop paying $3.8 million dollars of Jaromir Jagr’s salary. For most teams, paying nearly 10% of your salary cap to a player not even on your team anymore would really hurt. As it is, Washington is at least those two years away from truly competing in the East anyways.

The team truly is built around Ovenchkin (not that I blame the Caps for this). Last year only one player (Zubrus) had more points than Ovenchkin had goals. Ovenchkin had 52 of his teams 237 goals (over 1/5th). This kid truly is amazing. Washington has committed to his development and will spend the next few years adding youg players to compliment him. At that point, they should be a force to reckon with.

Next year, however, not much will change. The offence is still far too dependent on one man to be successful, and the defence, though boosted by the arrival of free agent Pothier, is still young, inexperienced and not particularly impressive. Olaf Kolzig is a solid goaltender, and should remain so for the foreseeable future.

Washington certainly didn’t make much noise this summer, but they continued on the long road to rebuilding. Re-acquiring Richard Zednik should pay off, and only cost a third round pick. Donald Brashear is a goon and a fringe player, but he will certainly be able to keep other teams from manhandling Ovenchkin (though Ovenchkin showed last year he can stick up for himself rather well).

Unfortunately, the teams above Washington in the standings mostly made more aggressive moves to improve themselves. Boston acquired Chara and Savard. The Islanders got Poti, Witt and Sillinger. The Caps could swap spots with the Florida Panthers, who gambled on Bertuzzi and may very well lose ground. The other Southeast teams, much like a playoff spot, seem well out of reach.

Additions: Todd Bertuzzi, Alex Auld, Bryan Allen, Ville Peltonen, Ruslan Salei, Ed Belfour

Subtractions: Roberto Luongo, Lukas Krajicek, Jamie McLennan, Jamie Allison, Jon Sim, Serge Payer

Analysis

Florida is a team that underwent some major renovations since they last played hockey. Gone is all star goaltender Roberto Luongo, the man who played 75 of Florida’s 82 games last season. His replacement will be a mix of Ed Belfour and Alex Auld.

As a Leafs’ fan, I saw plenty of Ed Belfour over the last few years; I thought he was a fantastic goaltender who has had a stalwart career in the NHL. However, his play last year was lacking in consistency and effectiveness. He simply was not the number one goaltender the Leafs needed last year, and though it pains me to say it about such a great athlete, his play was one of the major contributing factors to the Leafs missing the playoffs. The real issue with Belfour may be his willingness to accept less responsability. He’s been known throughout his career as a man who needs to be the undisputed starter, a need that eventually led to his less than happy departure from the Dallas Stars. If he cannot accept less than the main role, and he does not show the consistency needed from that position, then the Panthers may have brought on more than they can handle.

The other half of their goaltending solution for next year is young Alex Auld. Now, as a resident of Thunder Bay, Auld’s hometown, I have been rooting for this guy ever since he broke into the league. I think he’s done an excellent job over the past few years under more pressure than is good for a young goaltender when Dan Cloutier has been injured. If Belfour is the short term solution, Auld is certainly the long term, and I think he may be the best piece Florida got in return for Luongo.

The other piece of that puzzle was, of course, Todd Bertuzzi. I feel that Bertuzzi was somewhat a victim of bad luck. Had Moore not be so baddly injured, I doubt Bertuzzi would have received more than a slap on the wrist. However, we don’t live in a hypothetical world. Whether Moore cheap-shotted Naslund or not is also accademic. Bertuzzi beat up on a kid and has since been rallying point for the fans and players of every city he visits. While he should escape most of the attention down in Florida (and not playing four games in Colorado every year will help), he’s still very much a marked man. Had I been the Mike Keenan, I would have insisted on less Bertuzzi and more prospects or draft picks. Bertuzzi was a huge gamble, far more than draft picks. He has only one more year on his contract, at a hefty $5+ million to boot, and has a long way to go to deserve that kind of money.

Florida is a team I see going down in the standings next year. Oli Jokinen led the team last year with 89 points. The next man on the list was Nieuwendyk with 56, then Stumpel with 52. No other player on the team broke 50 points. That is a tremendous drop off. Even Atlanta had 4 players with more than 50 points, and three of them had 90+. On the plus side, Jokinen is locked up for four years, Ruslan Salei as well, and Jay Bouwmeester should continue to develop, which should make his $2.175 million a bargain for the next two years. Auld is a young goalie with plenty of experience and a history of performing consistently, even when called upon suddenly. All of this bodes well for the future. But next season? I wouldn’t count on much.

Additions: Fred Brathwaite, Darren Haydar, Johan Hedberg, Niko Kapanen, Glen Metropolit, Steve Rucchin, Jon Sim, Kyle Wanvig, Vitaly Vishnevski

Subtractions: Jaroslav Modry, Tomas Kloucek, Marc Savard, Patrik Stefan, Karl Stewart

Analysis

While I don’t feel that Atlanta has the depth or experience to make an extended run in the playoffs, they should be a very dangerous team in the regular season and should be more than strong enough to at least make those playoffs.

First off, goaltending. Last year the Thrashers had the distinct displeasure of reaching down to the fifth goaltender on their depth chart. And they still came within two points of eigth place. To avoid this situation from repeating, the Thrashers picked up Johan Hedberg and Fred Brathwaite, significantly deepening them at the most important position on the ice. Brathwaite a few years ago was one of the hottest goaltenders in the league, and though he faded into obscurity, he probably deserved another chance before now. Hedberg never became a really top #1, but will be a more than capable backup. And you have to expect Lehtonen to have a better, or at least healthier season than last year.

On defence the Thrashers just recently picked up Vishnevski from the Ducks. He should have an immediate impact on the blueline, though two draft picks and Stewart may have been too high a price to pay. Losing Modry will hurt, but Vishnevski should make up for his loss. Greg de Vries will likely be leaned on for more than the 22 minutes per game he averaged last year, and though not the best choice for a #1/2 defenceman, he should be capable.

Up front is where the Thrashers are the weakest. Their top line featuring Kovalchuk Hossa and pretty much anyone will be among the best in the league, but beyond that they have almost no one. I for one feel that Savard was overpaid by the Bruins, but he was still a young, creative player just entering his prime and he meshed well on the top line last year. Bondra has yet to be resigned, and even if he does return he’s past his prime at this point. His production from last year (39 points) can only be expected to decline, which is a bad thing if you are a Thrashers fan because only Kovalchuk, Hossa, Savard and Kozlov had more points than Bondra on the team last year.

Atlanta is certainly a team looking up, but beyond their top line they simply do not have the depth or experience to be a serious Cup Contender. The teams just above them in the standings should be looking nervously over their shoulders. The battle for the playoffs in the East is just getting more and more interesting.

Additions: Andy Delmore, Marc Denis, Doug Janik, Filip Kuba, Luke Richardson

Subtractions: John Grahame, Pavel Kubina, Fredrik Modin, Darryl Sydor, Shane Willis

Analysis

Hands up who was surprised when Brad Richards received a $7.8 million per year for 5 years deal earlier this season. Ok, everyone. Moving on.

Whether Richards deserves that kind of money or not (short version: no way, but Tampa Bay was given an ugly choice - give him that kind of money or lose him for nothing when he hit free agency), in a salary cap era, tying up just a hair short of $20 million on three players is bound to cause trouble. Locking up the trio of Richards, Lecavalier and St. Louis certainly has its benefits, but it has come at the cost of depth. Beyond those three, the Lightning now have almost no one left on their forward lines. Prospal is easily the next best forward and a real bargain ($1.9 million per year for two more years and 80 points last year - now that’s smart). Modin was a solid 20 goal scorer who was dealt both to solidify the Lightning in goal and also to free up some salary (although giving the experienced but unproven Mark Denis almost $3 million per year may not turn out as well as the Lightning hope). Compare this to the Carolina Hurricanes, who even after giving significant raises to Eric Staal, Eric Cole and Justin Williams have not a single player making more than $4.5 million.

On defence, the problem is just as severe. Kubina and Sydor are gone and have been replaced by the much cheaper, but much less effective, Kuba and Richardson. Richardson is probably the best bargain on Tampa’s blueline this year, providing stability and leadership, but he’s a short term solution at best and no longer has the ability to anchor a blueline. Kuba was a solid addition but is no Kubina.

Tampa Bay still touts the formidable trio of Richards, Lecavalier and St. Louis and those three, should they have strong seasons next year, can be expected to almost single handedly drag their team into the playoffs. Unfortunately, the lack of depth behind those players will likely keep them just short of that coveted playoff position, and will certainly stop them from an extended run. Considering that the moves they made were lateral at best, and considering how much better the teams around them got, I can’t see Tampa Bay making the playoffs next season. Toronto, Atlanta, Florida, NY Islanders and Boston, the five teams below the Lightning in the standings last season, all improved substantially. Lateral movement is not enough.

ADDITIONS: John Grahame; Trevor Letowski; Scott Walker; Shane Willis; Pat Dwyer

SUBTRACTIONS: Martin Gerber; Matt Cullen; Aaron Ward; Doug Weight; Josef Vasicek; Mark Recchi

Analysis

Well, first off let’s get the easy prediction out of the way first: Carolina will not do as well next year. However, they will have a very strong team for years to come.

A number of the changes will not be really felt: Doug Weight and Mark Recchi were only with the team for the end of the year, while players like Grahame and Dwyer are fringe players at best.

On the subject of John Grahame, what exactly were the Hurricanes thinking? Grahame couldn’t get in done in Tampa Bay and won’t be a suitable replacement for Gerber. With all the goaltenders available this offseason - notably Manny Legace but also the very available Nabokov or Giguerre - you’d think Carolina could have done better. The end result is that more pressure will be heaped onto Cam Ward.

Now, Cam Ward handled the pressure very well during the playoffs last year, but throughout an 80 game season is another story. And as I’ve mentioned regarding several teams already, a successful rookie season does not equate to a successful long term career - especially not for a goaltender.

Matt Cullen and Aaron Ward were important role players for the team last year and emerging youngsters will be needed to fill the void they left. Vasicek will be missed but certainly wasn’t a central piece of the puzzle.

The returning pieces from last year’s team are far more reassuring. Brind’amour was the unidsputed captain last year of a team that included Eric Staal, Doug Weight, Mark Recchi, Glen Wesley, and more. Locking him up long term was smart and will provide stability for the franchise for years to come. Eric Staal will only be better next year and will likely be leaned on even more. Eric Cole, before his injury, had 30 goals and 29 assists in 60 games. If he can repeat that kind of performance for the next 3 years, he’ll be a bargain.

If Cam Ward handles the pressure of the #1 spot, Carolina will remain dangerous indeed. Even if he falters, the team in front of him is deep enough to easily make the playoffs. However, I can’t see Ward maintaining his form. Although he won the Con Smythe last year, he was pulled a couple times and simply wasn’t the starter last year. He played in only 28 games of the regular season.

Carolina should still be considered the favourite in the Southeast division next year but will have to watch over their shoulders for Tampa Bay, Florida and especially Atlanta.

Additions: Mark Eaton, Jarkko Ruutu, Patrick Ehelechner, Nils Ekman, Dominic Moore, Mark Recchi

Subtractions: Andy Hil

Analysis:

Ahh, Pittsburgh. The team of big “P” potential for how many years now? How many top draft picks have they had who weres supposed to save the team and catapult them into the playoffs? And yet Pittsburgh has remained mired in the basement of the standings for year after long year.

The good news, of course, is that all of those draft picks, while not sufficient any one by himself, are starting to pile up. With or without Malkin, the Penguins this year will feature a year older, more mature (physically and mentally let’s hope), stronger, more experienced Sidney Crosby, a Fleury who’s always looked like he deserved better than the team he’s had, and a number of other young, quick players. Really, the Penguins can only go up from last year, right?

Right?

Maybe so, but next year will not be the year they make the playoffs. Unless of course they wize up and fire their coach ASAP. Michel Terrien is simply not the guy you want behind your bench. The tyrant routine just doesn’t work at the NHL level. He’ll shout out and insult his players in front of the media, and those same players, for some strange reason, stop wanting to work for the guy. As long as this guy is their coah, the Penguins will remain a bottom-feeder.

Beyond that, the Penguins do seem destined to gain some points this year. Their division got substantially weaker and their young stars are only going to be better. The return of Mark Recchi will help, and you’ve got to think that Sergei Gonchar will bounce back from his pathetic season last year. He may never be a $5 million dollar defenceman, but he should be a very capable power play quarterback and a solid #2 or #3 guy. With the bulk of their players young and therefore fairly cheap, the big salary bite doesn’t hurt as you might expect, anyways.

The additions won’t shock the hockey world but they were smart, safe moves. Guys like Ruutu and Ekman aren’t easy to play against and always nice to have on your side. As already mentioned, loaning Recchi to the Hurricanes last year only made him more experienced this time around.

I for one really hope the Penguins stay in Pittsburgh, ditch Terrien, and surround Crosby, Fleury and Malkin with the support they deserve. They’re a great franchise, but this year’s team is still a little too heavy on the “P”otential and will be a little too lite on results. But they will be fun to watch.